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Boca Juniors - Vasco DA Gama

Copa Sudamericana October 14, 2026 22:00
Boca Juniors
vs
Vasco DA Gama
#2 · 10 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
39.05%
Win
Boca Juniors
30.73%
Draw
30.21%
Win
Vasco DA Gama
1.03
Expected xG
0.91

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–0 (15.15%)
1X2 Result
1 39%
X 31%
2 30%
Double Chance
1X 70%
X2 61%
12 69%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 58%
Over 2.5 31%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Boca Juniors a 39% win probability, against 30% for a draw and 30% for Vasco DA Gama. Expected goals are 1.0 for Boca Juniors and 0.9 for Vasco DA Gama (total 1.9), with a 58% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 15.15% probability.

Season Stats

Boca Juniors
4W 1D 1L
Vasco DA Gama
7W 5D 3L
Averages per game
1.7
Goals
1.5
0.5
Conceded
0.9
3.2
Shots OT
5.4
4.3
Corners
4.6
54%
Poss.
53%
Percentages
50%
O 1.5
73%
33%
O 2.5
60%
33%
BTTS
40%
50%
Clean Sht
53%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in Copa Sudamericana. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
47%
O 3.5
47%
BTTS
Boca Juniors
3W 0D 0L · at home
Vasco DA Gama
2W 4D 4L · away
1.7
gls/g
1.3
0.3
Conceded
1.9
100%
Win %
20%
100%
Win or Draw
60%
33%
O 1.5
70%
33%
O 2.5
70%
33%
O 3.5
60%
33%
BTTS
60%
67%
Clean Sht
20%
0%
Failed to Score
40%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Boca Juniors Vasco DA Gama →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 14.4% 13.0% 5.9% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1%
1 14.9% 13.5% 6.1% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1%
2 7.7% 7.0% 3.2% 1.0% 0.2% —
3 2.6% 2.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% —
4 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% — —
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% — — —

Recent form

Boca Juniors Boca Juniors
D Sao Paulo 1–1
W Sao Paulo 1–0
W Deportivo Recoleta 0–4
W Deportivo Recoleta 3–1
L O'Higgins 1–0
Home clean sheet (120 days) 47%
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama
W Santa Fe 2–0
D Santa Fe 0–0
W Olimpia 1–4
D Olimpia 0–0
W Independiente Medellin 1–0
Away clean sheet (120 days) 29%

Playing profile

Boca Juniors Boca Juniors
Attack
33
Defence
78
Form
68
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama
Attack
42
Defence
74
Form
61
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Boca Juniors vs Vasco DA Gama?
The model gives Boca Juniors a 39% win probability, 30% for a draw, and 30% for an Vasco DA Gama win.
How many goals are expected in Boca Juniors vs Vasco DA Gama?
Expected goals: Boca Juniors 1.0, Vasco DA Gama 0.9 (total 1.9). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 58%.
What is the most likely score in Boca Juniors vs Vasco DA Gama?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 15.15%.