Bohemians 5–3 Derry City — pre-match prediction — Premier Division — August 21, 2026

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Premier Division · Regular Season - 28 August 21, 2026 20:45 Dalymount Park, Dublin

Bohemians

#3 · 53 pts

5 – 3

Final score

Derry City

#5 · 37 pts

P. Hickey (ast. J. Flores) 47'

C. Parsons (ast. D. Devoy) 50'

D. James-Taylor 52'

R. Tierney (ast. C. Whelan) 78'

R. Tierney (ast. D. Devoy) 87'

34' M. Duffy

62' (ast. A. O'Reilly) T. Smith

(pen.) 90'+5 M. Duffy

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Bohemians a 46% win probability (draw 27%, Derry City 26%). The final result was Bohemians 5–3 Derry City. In 3 previous meetings, Bohemians have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Derry City.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

2.18

Actual xG

0.60

Saves

57%

Possession

43%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

🟥 Red cards

Match Events

H. Vaughan

27'

34'

M. Duffy⚽

⚽P. Hickey · ast. J. Flores

47'

⚽C. Parsons · ast. D. Devoy

50'

⚽D. James-Taylor

52'

55'

J. Clarke

57'

B. Lyons-Foster

61'

J. Olayinka / E. Chapman ↕

61'

B. Fleming / B. Cotter ↕

61'

C. Dummigan / N. Twisk ↕

62'

ast. A. O'Reilly · T. Smith⚽

↕ D. James-Taylor / C. Whelan

73'

↕ H. Vaughan / Z. Myers

73'

⚽R. Tierney · ast. C. Whelan

78'

↕ C. Parsons / M. Strods

82'

↕ J. Flores / A. McDonnell

82'

83'

D. Burns / B. Lyons-Foster ↕

⚽R. Tierney · ast. D. Devoy

87'

↕ D. Power / N. Morahan

89'

90'+5

(pen.) M. Duffy⚽

Pre-match prediction

46.53%

Bohemians ←

27.14%

26.33%

Derry

we assigned to the actual result (Bohemians) 46.53% (medium confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Bohemians

1.60

2.18

+0.58

Derry

1.19

0.60

-0.59

Bohemians dominated by xG (2.18 vs 0.60). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Shamrock Rovers	30	56
2	St Patrick's Athl.	30	53
3	Bohemians	30	53
4	Dundalk	30	41
5	Derry City	30	37
6	Shelbourne	29	36
7	Galway United	29	34
8	Waterford	30	33
9	Drogheda United	30	31
10	Sligo Rovers	30	23

Lineups

Bohemians 4-2-3-1

P. Walters 81' G 6.20

S. Mullen 81' D 7.30

C. Byrne 81' D 6.50

P. Hickey 1 ⚽ 81' D 7.30

D. Power 81' D 6.20

J. Flores 1 👟 81' M 7.20

D. Devoy 2 👟 81' M 7.30

C. Parsons 1 ⚽ 81' M 7.70

H. Vaughan 73' M 6.50

R. Tierney 2 ⚽ 81' M 7.60

D. James-Taylor 1 ⚽ 73' F 8.00

Bench

A. McDonnell M

C. Whelan 1 👟 8' F 7.00

K. Chorążka G

M. Strods M

N. Morahan M

P. Madden F

R. Burke D

S. Diallo M

Zane Myers 8' D 6.30

Derry City 4-3-3

B. Maher 81' G 6.50

Brooklyn Lyons-Foster 81' D 6.20

Patrick McClean 81' D 6.60

C. Barr 81' D 5.60

Barry Cotter 61' D 6.00

A. O'Reilly 1 👟 81' M 5.90

N. Twisk 61' M 6.20

E. Chapman 61' M 6.20

M. Duffy 2 ⚽ 81' F 7.90

T. Smith 1 ⚽ 81' F 7.30

J. Clarke 55' F 6.20

Bench

B. Fleming 20' D 6.30

C. Dummigan 20' D 6.30

D. Burns M

J. Olayinka 20' M 6.30

J. Stott D

Liam Kelly M

Michael McColgan F

Terence Doherty F

Tom Norcott G

Best on the pitch

D. James-Taylor

F · Bohemians

8.00

1 ⚽

1 shots · 18 pass

M. Duffy

F · Derry

7.90

2 ⚽

2 shots · 30 pass

C. Parsons

M · Bohemians

7.70

1 ⚽

2 shots · 23 pass

R. Tierney

M · Bohemians

7.60

2 ⚽

3 shots · 18 pass

D. Devoy

M · Bohemians

7.30

2 👟

1 shots · 71 pass

P. Hickey

D · Bohemians

7.30

1 ⚽

1 shots · 74 pass

Bohemians — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
P. Walters	G	81	6.20	—	—	—	19	18%	—	—	—
S. Mullen	D	81	7.30	—	—	—	38	34%	3	—	—
C. Byrne	D	81	6.50	—	—	—	64	57%	—	—	—
P. Hickey	D	81	7.30	1	—	1	74	64%	—	—	—
D. Power	D	81	6.20	—	—	—	43	38%	—	—	—
J. Flores	M	81	7.20	—	1	—	83	71%	1	—	—
D. Devoy	M	81	7.30	—	2	1	71	64%	2	—	—
C. Parsons	M	81	7.70	1	—	2	23	21%	1	—	—
H. Vaughan	M	73	6.50	—	—	1	32	26%	—	1	—
R. Tierney	M	81	7.60	2	—	3	18	12%	1	—	—
D. James-Taylor	F	73	8.00	1	—	1	18	10%	—	—	—
C. Whelan	F	8	7.00	—	1	—	2	1%	—	—	—
Zane Myers	D	8	6.30	—	—	1	2	1%	—	—	—

Derry City — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
B. Maher	G	81	6.50	—	—	—	26	17%	—	—	—
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster	D	81	6.20	—	—	—	43	30%	3	1	—
Patrick McClean	D	81	6.60	—	—	1	58	46%	1	—	—
C. Barr	D	81	5.60	—	—	—	55	49%	—	—	—
Barry Cotter	D	61	6.00	—	—	—	26	19%	2	—	—
A. O'Reilly	M	81	5.90	—	1	—	20	17%	—	—	—
N. Twisk	M	61	6.20	—	—	—	25	20%	—	—	—
E. Chapman	M	61	6.20	—	—	—	34	26%	—	—	—
M. Duffy	F	81	7.90	2	—	2	30	23%	—	—	—
T. Smith	F	81	7.30	1	—	2	11	10%	—	—	—
J. Clarke	F	55	6.20	—	—	1	16	13%	1	—	1
B. Fleming	D	20	6.30	—	—	—	4	4%	—	—	—
C. Dummigan	D	20	6.30	—	—	—	8	6%	—	—	—
J. Olayinka	M	20	6.30	—	—	—	7	7%	—	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Bohemians vs Derry City?

The final score was Bohemians 5–3 Derry City.

What did the model predict before Bohemians vs Derry City?

The model assigned 46% probability to a Bohemians win, 27% to a draw, and 26% to an Derry City win.