Copa Libertadores
· Group Stage - 3
May 01, 2026 00:00
Robson Matheus
(ast. José Sagredo)
6'
Robson Matheus
(ast. Patricio Rodríguez)
61'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Bolívar a 50% win probability (draw 25%, Fluminense 24%). The final result was Bolívar 2–0 Fluminense. In 1 previous meetings, Bolívar have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Fluminense.
Match statistics
14
Total shots
4
7
Shots on target
1
0.63
Actual xG
0.18
0
Saves
5
50%
Possession
50%
2
Corners
1
12
Tackles
12
2
🟨 Yellow cards
3
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
⚽Robson Matheus
· ast. José Sagredo
6'
21'
Rodrigo Castillo
29'
Facundo Bernal
48'
Facundo Bernal
48'
Facundo Bernal
John García
57'
John García
/ Patricio Rodríguez
57'
59'
John Kennedy
/
Rodrigo Castillo
59'
Alisson
/
Jefferson Savarino
59'
Yeferson Soteldo
/
Kevin Serna
⚽Robson Matheus
· ast. Patricio Rodríguez
61'
Brian Oyola
/ Jhon Velásquez
72'
Carlos Melgar
/ Erwin Saavedra
72'
Leonel Justiniano
74'
Robson Matheus
/ Ervin Vaca
79'
79'
Guilherme Arana
/
Agustín Canobbio
90'+7
Pre-match prediction
50.67%
Bolívar ←
25.22%
X
24.11%
Fluminense
we assigned to the actual result (Bolívar)
50.67%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.91
0.63
-2.28
0.85
0.18
-0.67
Bolívar dominated by xG (0.63 vs 0.18).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
C. Lampe
G
C. Lampe
G
4
Jose Sagredo
1 👟
D
Jose Sagredo
1 👟
D
27
I. Gariglio
D
I. Gariglio
D
3
X. Arreaga
D
X. Arreaga
D
8
L. Paz
D
L. Paz
D
19
J. García
57'
M
J. García
57'
M
80
C. Melgar
72'
M
C. Melgar
72'
M
23
L. Justiniano
M
L. Justiniano
M
14
Robson Matheus
2 ⚽
79'
M
11
Brian Oyola
72'
M
Brian Oyola
72'
M
77
D. Romero
F
D. Romero
F
Bench
26
E. Saavedra
26'
M
E. Saavedra
26'
M
6
E. Vaca
19'
M
E. Vaca
19'
M
33
F. Mena
D
F. Mena
D
7
J. Velásquez
26'
F
J. Velásquez
26'
F
18
L. Chávez
M
L. Chávez
M
9
M. Cauteruccio
F
M. Cauteruccio
F
17
P. Rodríguez
1 👟
41'
F
P. Rodríguez
1 👟
41'
F
5
S. Echeverría
D
S. Echeverría
D
1
G
6
Renê
D
Renê
D
22
D
4
Ignacio
D
Ignacio
D
23
Guga
D
Guga
D
5
Facundo Bernal
48'
M
Facundo Bernal
48'
M
35
Hércules
M
Hércules
M
90
K. Serna
59'
M
K. Serna
59'
M
11
J. Savarino
59'
M
J. Savarino
59'
M
17
A. Canobbio
79'
M
A. Canobbio
79'
M
19
R. Castillo
59'
F
R. Castillo
59'
F
Bench
25
Alisson
39'
M
Alisson
39'
M
13
Guilherme Arana
19'
D
Guilherme Arana
19'
D
3
Jemmes
D
Jemmes
D
9
John Kennedy
39'
F
John Kennedy
39'
F
94
Otávio
M
Otávio
M
2
Samuel Xavier
D
Samuel Xavier
D
7
Y. Soteldo
39'
F
Y. Soteldo
39'
F
Best on the pitch
Robson Matheus
M · Bolívar
9.90
2 ⚽
3 shots
· 38 pass
I. Gariglio
D · Bolívar
7.60
1 shots
· 64 pass
X. Arreaga
D · Bolívar
7.50
· 67 pass
Jose Sagredo
D · Bolívar
7.20
1 👟
· 30 pass
Y. Soteldo
F · Fluminense
7.00
· 12 pass
L. Justiniano
M · Bolívar
7.00
2 shots
· 46 pass
Bolívar — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Lampe | G | 98 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 33 | 32% | — | — | — |
| Jose Sagredo | D | 98 | 7.20 | — | 1 | — | 30 | 28% | — | — | — |
| I. Gariglio | D | 98 | 7.60 | — | — | 1 | 64 | 62% | 2 | — | — |
| X. Arreaga | D | 98 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 67 | 64% | 2 | — | — |
| L. Paz | D | 98 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 43 | 38% | 1 | — | — |
| J. García | M | 57 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 16 | 15% | 1 | 1 | — |
| C. Melgar | M | 72 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 38 | 35% | — | — | — |
| L. Justiniano | M | 98 | 7.00 | — | — | 2 | 46 | 42% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Robson Matheus | M | 79 | 9.90 | 2 | — | 3 | 38 | 34% | — | — | — |
| Brian Oyola | M | 72 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 22 | 18% | — | — | — |
| D. Romero | F | 98 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 11 | 10% | 3 | — | — |
| E. Saavedra | M | 26 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 11 | 11% | — | — | — |
| E. Vaca | M | 19 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 15 | 14% | — | — | — |
| J. Velásquez | F | 26 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 5 | 5% | — | — | — |
| P. Rodríguez | F | 41 | 7.00 | — | 1 | 2 | 18 | 16% | — | — | — |
Fluminense — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 98 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 22 | 19% | — | — | — | |
| Renê | D | 98 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 42 | 38% | 4 | — | — |
| D | 98 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 72 | 67% | — | — | — | |
| Ignacio | D | 98 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 57 | 55% | 1 | — | — |
| Guga | D | 98 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 54 | 52% | 1 | — | — |
| Facundo Bernal | M | 48 | 5.50 | — | — | — | 30 | 28% | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Hércules | M | 98 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 49 | 48% | 3 | — | — |
| K. Serna | M | 59 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 12% | — | — | — |
| J. Savarino | M | 59 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 16% | — | — | — |
| A. Canobbio | M | 79 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 28 | 23% | 2 | — | — |
| R. Castillo | F | 59 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 11 | 9% | — | 1 | — |
| Alisson | M | 39 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 36 | 34% | — | — | — |
| Guilherme Arana | D | 19 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 9 | 7% | — | — | — |
| John Kennedy | F | 39 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 8 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Y. Soteldo | F | 39 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 12 | 10% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Bolívar vs Fluminense?
The final score was Bolívar 2–0 Fluminense.
What did the model predict before Bolívar vs Fluminense?
The model assigned 50% probability to a Bolívar win, 25% to a draw, and 24% to an Fluminense win.