Copa Libertadores
· Group Stage - 3
May 01, 2026 00:00
Robson Matheus
(ast. José Sagredo)
6'
Robson Matheus
(ast. Patricio Rodríguez)
61'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Bolívar a 50% win probability (draw 25%, Fluminense 24%). The final result was Bolívar 2–0 Fluminense. In 1 previous meetings, Bolívar have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Fluminense.
Match statistics
14
Total shots
4
7
Shots on target
1
0.63
Actual xG
0.18
0
Saves
5
50%
Possession
50%
2
Corners
1
12
Tackles
12
2
🟨 Yellow cards
3
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
⚽Robson Matheus
· ast. José Sagredo
6'
21'
Rodrigo Castillo
29'
Facundo Bernal
48'
Facundo Bernal
48'
Facundo Bernal
John García
57'
John García
/ Patricio Rodríguez
57'
59'
John Kennedy
/
Rodrigo Castillo
59'
Alisson
/
Jefferson Savarino
59'
Yeferson Soteldo
/
Kevin Serna
⚽Robson Matheus
· ast. Patricio Rodríguez
61'
Brian Oyola
/ Jhon Velásquez
72'
Carlos Melgar
/ Erwin Saavedra
72'
Leonel Justiniano
74'
Robson Matheus
/ Ervin Vaca
79'
79'
Guilherme Arana
/
Agustín Canobbio
90'+7
Pre-match prediction
50.67%
Bolívar ←
25.22%
X
24.11%
Fluminense
we assigned to the actual result (Bolívar)
50.67%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.91
0.63
-2.28
0.85
0.18
-0.67
Bolívar dominated by xG (0.63 vs 0.18).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Carlos Lampe
G
Carlos Lampe
G
4
J. Sagredo
1 👟
D
J. Sagredo
1 👟
D
27
Ignacio Gariglio
D
Ignacio Gariglio
D
3
Xavier Arreaga
D
Xavier Arreaga
D
8
Luis Paz
D
Luis Paz
D
19
John García
57'
M
John García
57'
M
80
C. Melgar
72'
M
C. Melgar
72'
M
23
L. Justiniano
M
L. Justiniano
M
14
R. Matheus
2 ⚽
79'
M
R. Matheus
2 ⚽
79'
M
11
Brian Oyola
72'
M
Brian Oyola
72'
M
77
D. Romero
F
D. Romero
F
Bench
6
Ervin Vaca
19'
M
Ervin Vaca
19'
M
26
Erwin Saavedra
26'
M
Erwin Saavedra
26'
M
33
F. Mena
D
7
Jhon Velásquez
26'
F
Jhon Velásquez
26'
F
18
L. Chávez
M
L. Chávez
M
9
Martín Cauteruccio
F
Martín Cauteruccio
F
17
Patricio Rodríguez
1 👟
41'
F
Patricio Rodríguez
1 👟
41'
F
5
Santiago Echeverria
D
Santiago Echeverria
D
1
G
6
Renê
D
Renê
D
22
D
4
Ignácio
D
Ignácio
D
23
Guga
D
Guga
D
5
Facundo Bernal
48'
M
Facundo Bernal
48'
M
35
Hércules
M
Hércules
M
90
Kevin Serna
59'
M
Kevin Serna
59'
M
11
J. Savarino
59'
M
J. Savarino
59'
M
17
A. Canobbio
79'
M
A. Canobbio
79'
M
19
Rodrigo Castillo
59'
F
Rodrigo Castillo
59'
F
Bench
25
Alisson
39'
M
Alisson
39'
M
13
Guilherme Arana
19'
D
Guilherme Arana
19'
D
3
Jemmes
D
Jemmes
D
9
John Kennedy
39'
F
John Kennedy
39'
F
94
Otávio
M
Otávio
M
2
Samuel Xavier
D
Samuel Xavier
D
7
Y. Soteldo
39'
F
Y. Soteldo
39'
F
Best on the pitch
R. Matheus
M · Bolívar
9.90
2 ⚽
3 shots
· 38 pass
Ignacio Gariglio
D · Bolívar
7.60
1 shots
· 64 pass
Xavier Arreaga
D · Bolívar
7.50
· 67 pass
J. Sagredo
D · Bolívar
7.20
1 👟
· 30 pass
Y. Soteldo
F · Fluminense
7.00
· 12 pass
L. Justiniano
M · Bolívar
7.00
2 shots
· 46 pass
Bolívar — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Lampe | G | 98 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 33 | 32% | — | — | — |
| J. Sagredo | D | 98 | 7.20 | — | 1 | — | 30 | 28% | — | — | — |
| Ignacio Gariglio | D | 98 | 7.60 | — | — | 1 | 64 | 62% | 2 | — | — |
| Xavier Arreaga | D | 98 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 67 | 64% | 2 | — | — |
| Luis Paz | D | 98 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 43 | 38% | 1 | — | — |
| John García | M | 57 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 16 | 15% | 1 | 1 | — |
| C. Melgar | M | 72 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 38 | 35% | — | — | — |
| L. Justiniano | M | 98 | 7.00 | — | — | 2 | 46 | 42% | 3 | 1 | — |
| R. Matheus | M | 79 | 9.90 | 2 | — | 3 | 38 | 34% | — | — | — |
| Brian Oyola | M | 72 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 22 | 18% | — | — | — |
| D. Romero | F | 98 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 11 | 10% | 3 | — | — |
| Ervin Vaca | M | 19 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 15 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Erwin Saavedra | M | 26 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 11 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Jhon Velásquez | F | 26 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 5 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Patricio Rodríguez | F | 41 | 7.00 | — | 1 | 2 | 18 | 16% | — | — | — |
Fluminense — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 98 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 22 | 19% | — | — | — | |
| Renê | D | 98 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 42 | 38% | 4 | — | — |
| D | 98 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 72 | 67% | — | — | — | |
| Ignácio | D | 98 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 57 | 55% | 1 | — | — |
| Guga | D | 98 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 54 | 52% | 1 | — | — |
| Facundo Bernal | M | 48 | 5.50 | — | — | — | 30 | 28% | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Hércules | M | 98 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 49 | 48% | 3 | — | — |
| Kevin Serna | M | 59 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 12% | — | — | — |
| J. Savarino | M | 59 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 16% | — | — | — |
| A. Canobbio | M | 79 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 28 | 23% | 2 | — | — |
| Rodrigo Castillo | F | 59 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 11 | 9% | — | 1 | — |
| Alisson | M | 39 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 36 | 34% | — | — | — |
| Guilherme Arana | D | 19 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 9 | 7% | — | — | — |
| John Kennedy | F | 39 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 8 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Y. Soteldo | F | 39 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 12 | 10% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Bolívar vs Fluminense?
The final score was Bolívar 2–0 Fluminense.
What did the model predict before Bolívar vs Fluminense?
The model assigned 50% probability to a Bolívar win, 25% to a draw, and 24% to an Fluminense win.