Copa Sudamericana
· Round of 32
July 24, 2026 00:00
✓Model correct — prediction Bolívar
M. Cauteruccio
(ast. Pato Rodriguez)
2'
Robson Matheus
18'
D. Asprilla
(ast. J. Sagredo)
58'
16'
M. Villasanti
23'
Tete
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Bolívar a 59% win probability (draw 19%, Gremio 20%). The final result was Bolívar 3–2 Gremio.
Match statistics
22
Total shots
13
8
Shots on target
5
4.01
Actual xG
1.19
2
Saves
5
57%
Possession
43%
6
Corners
6
9
Tackles
14
0
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
⚽M. Cauteruccio
· ast. Pato Rodriguez
2'
16'
M. Villasanti⚽
⚽Robson Matheus
18'
23'
Tete⚽
54'
L. Perez
⚽D. Asprilla
· ast. J. Sagredo
58'
60'
Gustavo Martins
/
Luis Eduardo
60'
Gabriel Mec
/
J. Enamorado
60'
M. Monsalve
/
Tete
E. Vaca Moreno
/ L. Justiniano
64'
J. Sagredo
/ L. Paz
64'
67'
J. Nardoni
/
M. Villasanti
72'
Gabriel Mec
Pato Rodriguez
/ J. Velasquez
81'
M. Cauteruccio
/ L. L. Chavez Cruz
82'
Robson Matheus
/ D. Romero
84'
90'+2
Matheus Nascimento
/
M. Braithwaite
Pre-match prediction
59.21%
Bolívar ←
19.82%
X
20.96%
Gremio
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Bolívar)
59.21%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
3.42
4.01
+0.59
1.60
1.19
-0.41
Bolívar dominated by xG (4.01 vs 1.19).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Carlos Lampe
G
Carlos Lampe
G
4
J. Sagredo
1 👟
D
J. Sagredo
1 👟
D
3
Xavier Arreaga
D
Xavier Arreaga
D
5
Santiago Echeverria
D
Santiago Echeverria
D
2
Jesús Sagredo
64'
D
Jesús Sagredo
64'
D
17
P. Rodríguez
1 👟
81'
M
P. Rodríguez
1 👟
81'
M
80
C. Melgar
M
C. Melgar
M
6
Ervin Vaca
64'
M
Ervin Vaca
64'
M
14
R. Matheus
1 ⚽
84'
M
R. Matheus
1 ⚽
84'
M
9
M. Cauteruccio
1 ⚽
81'
F
M. Cauteruccio
1 ⚽
81'
F
27
Dairon Asprilla
1 ⚽
F
Dairon Asprilla
1 ⚽
F
Bench
10
Billy Arce
M
Billy Arce
M
13
Diego Méndez
G
Diego Méndez
G
77
D. Romero
11'
F
D. Romero
11'
F
26
Erwin Saavedra
M
Erwin Saavedra
M
35
Escleizon Freita
D
Escleizon Freita
D
33
Fernando Mena
D
Fernando Mena
D
7
Jhon Velásquez
14'
F
Jhon Velásquez
14'
F
19
John García
M
John García
M
16
Leonardo Zabala
D
Leonardo Zabala
D
23
L. Justiniano
31'
M
L. Justiniano
31'
M
18
Lucas Chávez
14'
M
Lucas Chávez
14'
M
8
Luis Paz
31'
D
Luis Paz
31'
D
1
Weverton
G
Weverton
G
54
Pedro Gabriel
D
Pedro Gabriel
D
3
Wagner Leonardo
D
Wagner Leonardo
D
43
Luis Guedes
60'
D
Luis Guedes
60'
D
7
Cristian Pavón
D
Cristian Pavón
D
17
Dodi
M
Dodi
M
33
L. Pérez
M
L. Pérez
M
20
Mathias Villasanti
1 ⚽
67'
M
Mathias Villasanti
1 ⚽
67'
M
99
José Enamorado
60'
F
José Enamorado
60'
F
22
M. Braithwaite
F
M. Braithwaite
F
21
Tetê
1 ⚽
60'
F
Tetê
1 ⚽
60'
F
Bench
38
Caio Paulista
D
Caio Paulista
D
12
Gabriel Grando
G
Gabriel Grando
G
37
Gabriel Mec
35'
F
Gabriel Mec
35'
F
6
Gustavo Martins
35'
D
Gustavo Martins
35'
D
5
J. Nardoni
28'
M
J. Nardoni
28'
M
14
Marcos Rocha
D
Marcos Rocha
D
30
Matheus Nascimento
3'
F
Matheus Nascimento
3'
F
11
Miguel Monsalve
35'
M
Miguel Monsalve
35'
M
65
Riquelme Freitas
M
Riquelme Freitas
M
10
Willian
M
Willian
M
4
W. Kannemann
D
W. Kannemann
D
50
Zortéa
M
Zortéa
M
Best on the pitch
Weverton
G · Gremio
8.30
· 36 pass
P. Rodríguez
M · Bolívar
8.20
1 👟
2 shots
· 27 pass
Tetê
F · Gremio
7.90
1 ⚽
5 shots
· 19 pass
Dairon Asprilla
F · Bolívar
7.30
1 ⚽
5 shots
· 17 pass
M. Cauteruccio
F · Bolívar
7.30
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 17 pass
Dodi
M · Gremio
7.20
· 27 pass
Bolívar — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Lampe | G | 95 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 19 | 17% | — | — | — |
| J. Sagredo | D | 95 | 7.00 | — | 1 | 2 | 30 | 25% | — | — | — |
| Xavier Arreaga | D | 95 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 52 | 49% | 1 | — | — |
| Santiago Echeverria | D | 95 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 34 | 33% | — | — | — |
| Jesús Sagredo | D | 64 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 27% | — | — | — |
| P. Rodríguez | M | 81 | 8.20 | — | 1 | 2 | 27 | 25% | 3 | — | — |
| C. Melgar | M | 95 | 7.00 | — | — | 3 | 74 | 72% | 2 | — | — |
| Ervin Vaca | M | 64 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 34 | 33% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Matheus | M | 84 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 3 | 41 | 38% | — | — | — |
| M. Cauteruccio | F | 81 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 2 | 17 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Dairon Asprilla | F | 95 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 5 | 17 | 12% | — | — | — |
| D. Romero | F | 11 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Jhon Velásquez | F | 14 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| L. Justiniano | M | 31 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 9% | 2 | — | — |
| Lucas Chávez | M | 14 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Luis Paz | D | 31 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 8 | 8% | — | — | — |
Gremio — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weverton | G | 95 | 8.30 | — | — | — | 36 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Pedro Gabriel | D | 95 | 5.90 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| Wagner Leonardo | D | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 29 | 27% | 3 | — | — |
| Luis Guedes | D | 60 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 31 | 26% | — | — | — |
| Cristian Pavón | D | 95 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 45 | 35% | 2 | — | — |
| Dodi | M | 95 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 27 | 27% | 2 | — | — |
| L. Pérez | M | 95 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 16 | 13% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Mathias Villasanti | M | 67 | 7.00 | 1 | — | 1 | 40 | 33% | — | — | — |
| José Enamorado | F | 60 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| M. Braithwaite | F | 92 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 20 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Tetê | F | 60 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 5 | 19 | 16% | 4 | — | — |
| Gabriel Mec | F | 35 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 3 | 1% | — | 1 | — |
| Gustavo Martins | D | 35 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 11 | 11% | — | — | — |
| J. Nardoni | M | 28 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 10 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Matheus Nascimento | F | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Miguel Monsalve | M | 35 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 10 | 9% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Bolívar vs Gremio?
The final score was Bolívar 3–2 Gremio.
What did the model predict before Bolívar vs Gremio?
The model assigned 59% probability to a Bolívar win, 19% to a draw, and 20% to an Gremio win.