Copa Sudamericana
· Round of 32
July 24, 2026 00:00
✓Model correct — prediction Bolívar
M. Cauteruccio
(ast. Pato Rodriguez)
2'
Robson Matheus
18'
D. Asprilla
(ast. J. Sagredo)
58'
16'
M. Villasanti
23'
Tete
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Bolívar a 59% win probability (draw 19%, Gremio 20%). The final result was Bolívar 3–2 Gremio. In 1 previous meetings, Bolívar have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Gremio.
Match statistics
22
Total shots
13
8
Shots on target
5
4.01
Actual xG
1.19
2
Saves
5
57%
Possession
43%
6
Corners
6
9
Tackles
14
0
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
⚽M. Cauteruccio
· ast. Pato Rodriguez
2'
16'
M. Villasanti⚽
⚽Robson Matheus
18'
23'
Tete⚽
54'
L. Perez
⚽D. Asprilla
· ast. J. Sagredo
58'
60'
Gustavo Martins
/
Luis Eduardo
60'
Gabriel Mec
/
J. Enamorado
60'
M. Monsalve
/
Tete
E. Vaca Moreno
/ L. Justiniano
64'
J. Sagredo
/ L. Paz
64'
67'
J. Nardoni
/
M. Villasanti
72'
Gabriel Mec
Pato Rodriguez
/ J. Velasquez
81'
M. Cauteruccio
/ L. L. Chavez Cruz
82'
Robson Matheus
/ D. Romero
84'
90'+2
Matheus Nascimento
/
M. Braithwaite
Pre-match prediction
59.21%
Bolívar ←
19.82%
X
20.96%
Gremio
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Bolívar)
59.21%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
3.42
4.01
+0.59
1.60
1.19
-0.41
Bolívar dominated by xG (4.01 vs 1.19).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
C. Lampe
G
C. Lampe
G
4
Jose Sagredo
1 👟
D
Jose Sagredo
1 👟
D
3
X. Arreaga
D
X. Arreaga
D
5
S. Echeverría
D
S. Echeverría
D
2
Jose Sagredo
64'
D
Jose Sagredo
64'
D
17
P. Rodríguez
1 👟
81'
M
P. Rodríguez
1 👟
81'
M
80
C. Melgar
M
C. Melgar
M
6
E. Vaca
64'
M
E. Vaca
64'
M
14
R. Matheus
1 ⚽
84'
M
R. Matheus
1 ⚽
84'
M
9
M. Cauteruccio
1 ⚽
81'
F
M. Cauteruccio
1 ⚽
81'
F
27
D. Asprilla
1 ⚽
F
D. Asprilla
1 ⚽
F
Bench
10
B. Arce
M
B. Arce
M
13
D. Méndez
G
D. Méndez
G
77
D. Romero
11'
F
D. Romero
11'
F
35
E. Rivero
D
E. Rivero
D
26
E. Saavedra
M
E. Saavedra
M
33
F. Mena
D
F. Mena
D
19
J. García
M
J. García
M
7
J. Velásquez
14'
F
J. Velásquez
14'
F
18
L. Chávez
14'
M
L. Chávez
14'
M
23
L. Justiniano
31'
M
L. Justiniano
31'
M
8
L. Paz
31'
D
L. Paz
31'
D
16
L. Zabala
D
L. Zabala
D
1
Weverton
G
Weverton
G
54
Pedro Gabriel
D
Pedro Gabriel
D
3
Wagner Leonardo
D
Wagner Leonardo
D
43
Luis Eduardo
60'
D
Luis Eduardo
60'
D
7
C. Pavón
D
C. Pavón
D
17
Dodi
M
Dodi
M
33
L. Pérez
M
L. Pérez
M
20
M. Villasanti
1 ⚽
67'
M
M. Villasanti
1 ⚽
67'
M
99
J. Enamorado
60'
F
J. Enamorado
60'
F
22
M. Braithwaite
F
M. Braithwaite
F
21
Tete
1 ⚽
60'
F
Tete
1 ⚽
60'
F
Bench
50
Bernardo Zortea
M
Bernardo Zortea
M
38
Caio Paulista
D
Caio Paulista
D
12
Gabriel Grando
G
Gabriel Grando
G
37
Gabriel Mec
35'
F
Gabriel Mec
35'
F
6
Gustavo Martins
35'
D
Gustavo Martins
35'
D
5
J. Nardoni
28'
M
J. Nardoni
28'
M
14
Marcos Rocha
D
Marcos Rocha
D
30
Matheus Nascimento
3'
F
Matheus Nascimento
3'
F
11
M. Monsalve
35'
M
M. Monsalve
35'
M
65
Riquelme Freitas
M
Riquelme Freitas
M
4
Walter Kannemann
D
Walter Kannemann
D
10
Willian
M
Willian
M
Best on the pitch
Weverton
G · Gremio
8.30
· 36 pass
P. Rodríguez
M · Bolívar
8.20
1 👟
2 shots
· 27 pass
Tete
F · Gremio
7.90
1 ⚽
5 shots
· 19 pass
M. Cauteruccio
F · Bolívar
7.30
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 17 pass
D. Asprilla
F · Bolívar
7.30
1 ⚽
5 shots
· 17 pass
L. Justiniano
M · Bolívar
7.20
1 shots
· 10 pass
Bolívar — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Lampe | G | 95 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 19 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Jose Sagredo | D | 95 | 7.00 | — | 1 | 2 | 30 | 25% | — | — | — |
| X. Arreaga | D | 95 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 52 | 49% | 1 | — | — |
| S. Echeverría | D | 95 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 34 | 33% | — | — | — |
| Jose Sagredo | D | 64 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 27% | — | — | — |
| P. Rodríguez | M | 81 | 8.20 | — | 1 | 2 | 27 | 25% | 3 | — | — |
| C. Melgar | M | 95 | 7.00 | — | — | 3 | 74 | 72% | 2 | — | — |
| E. Vaca | M | 64 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 34 | 33% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Matheus | M | 84 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 3 | 41 | 38% | — | — | — |
| M. Cauteruccio | F | 81 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 2 | 17 | 12% | — | — | — |
| D. Asprilla | F | 95 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 5 | 17 | 12% | — | — | — |
| D. Romero | F | 11 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| J. Velásquez | F | 14 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| L. Chávez | M | 14 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| L. Justiniano | M | 31 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 9% | 2 | — | — |
| L. Paz | D | 31 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 8 | 8% | — | — | — |
Gremio — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weverton | G | 95 | 8.30 | — | — | — | 36 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Pedro Gabriel | D | 95 | 5.90 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| Wagner Leonardo | D | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 29 | 27% | 3 | — | — |
| Luis Eduardo | D | 60 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 31 | 26% | — | — | — |
| C. Pavón | D | 95 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 45 | 35% | 2 | — | — |
| Dodi | M | 95 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 27 | 27% | 2 | — | — |
| L. Pérez | M | 95 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 16 | 13% | 2 | 1 | — |
| M. Villasanti | M | 67 | 7.00 | 1 | — | 1 | 40 | 33% | — | — | — |
| J. Enamorado | F | 60 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| M. Braithwaite | F | 92 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 20 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Tete | F | 60 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 5 | 19 | 16% | 4 | — | — |
| Gabriel Mec | F | 35 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 3 | 1% | — | 1 | — |
| Gustavo Martins | D | 35 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 11 | 11% | — | — | — |
| J. Nardoni | M | 28 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 10 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Matheus Nascimento | F | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Monsalve | M | 35 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 10 | 9% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Bolívar vs Gremio?
The final score was Bolívar 3–2 Gremio.
What did the model predict before Bolívar vs Gremio?
The model assigned 59% probability to a Bolívar win, 19% to a draw, and 20% to an Gremio win.