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Bolívar - Sao Paulo

Copa Sudamericana August 12, 2026 02:30
Bolívar
vs
Sao Paulo
#1 · 12 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
53.95%
Win
Bolívar
23.9%
Draw
22.15%
Win
Sao Paulo
2.22
Expected xG
0.84

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–0 (10.95%)
1X2 Result ✓ 80.0% hit rate (20 picks)
1 54%
X 24%
2 22%
Double Chance
1X 78%
X2 46%
12 76%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 81%
Over 2.5 56%
✓ 64.7% hit rate (17 picks)
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Bolívar a 53% win probability, against 23% for a draw and 22% for Sao Paulo. Expected goals are 2.2 for Bolívar and 0.8 for Sao Paulo (total 3.1), with a 81% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 10.95% probability.

Season Stats

Bolívar
6W 1D 1L
Sao Paulo
3W 3D 0L
Averages per game
2.0
Goals
1.0
0.6
Conceded
0.2
4.6
Shots OT
3.2
4.9
Corners
5.7
53%
Poss.
56%
Percentages
75%
O 1.5
50%
50%
O 2.5
0%
25%
BTTS
17%
63%
Clean Sht
83%
ℹ Based on the last 8 matches in Copa Sudamericana. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
25%
O 3.5
25%
BTTS
Bolívar
3W 1D 0L · at home
Sao Paulo
1W 2D 0L · away
2.5
gls/g
0.3
1.0
Conceded
0.0
75%
Win %
33%
100%
Win or Draw
100%
100%
O 1.5
0%
75%
O 2.5
0%
50%
O 3.5
0%
50%
BTTS
0%
50%
Clean Sht
100%
0%
Failed to Score
67%
last 4
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Bolívar Sao Paulo →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.7% 3.9% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% —
1 10.4% 8.7% 3.7% 1.0% 0.2% —
2 11.5% 9.7% 4.1% 1.1% 0.2% —
3 8.5% 7.2% 3.0% 0.8% 0.2% —
4 4.7% 4.0% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% —
5 2.1% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% — —

Recent form

Bolívar Bolívar
W Gremio 0–1
W Gremio 3–2
L Atletico-MG 1–0
D Atletico-MG 2–2
W Cienciano 0–2
Home clean sheet (120 days) 29%
Sao Paulo Sao Paulo
W Boston River 2–0
D Millonarios 1–1
D O'Higgins 0–0
D Millonarios 0–0
W O'Higgins 2–0
Away clean sheet (120 days) 24%

Playing profile

Bolívar Bolívar
Attack
48
Defence
69
Form
61
Sao Paulo Sao Paulo
Attack
30
Defence
67
Form
46
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Bolívar vs Sao Paulo?
The model gives Bolívar a 53% win probability, 23% for a draw, and 22% for an Sao Paulo win.
How many goals are expected in Bolívar vs Sao Paulo?
Expected goals: Bolívar 2.2, Sao Paulo 0.8 (total 3.1). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 81%.
What is the most likely score in Bolívar vs Sao Paulo?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 10.95%.