Copa Sudamericana
· Round of 16
August 12, 2026 02:30
C. A. Melgar
63'
23'
(ast. Iago Borduchi)
Robert Arboleda
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Bolívar a 52% win probability (draw 24%, Sao Paulo 22%). The final result was Bolívar 1–1 Sao Paulo. In 1 previous meetings, Bolívar have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Sao Paulo.
Match statistics
15
Total shots
8
4
Shots on target
2
0.76
Actual xG
0.61
1
Saves
3
64%
Possession
36%
9
Corners
4
6
Tackles
12
0
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
23'
ast. Iago Borduchi ·
Robert Arboleda⚽
51'
Iago Borduchi
J. Sagredo
/ D. Batallini
54'
61'
Wendell
/
Iago Borduchi
⚽C. A. Melgar
63'
71'
Danielzinho
/
Marcos Antonio
71'
Ferreira
/
Luciano
M. Cauteruccio
/ B. Miranda
76'
Pato Rodriguez
/ J. Velasquez
76'
83'
Cauly
/
D. Bobadilla
83'
Buta
/
Lucas Ramon
Robson Matheus
/ B. Arce
85'
E. Saavedra
/ E. Vaca Moreno
85'
90'+6
Buta
Pre-match prediction
52.45%
Bolívar
24.82%
X ←
22.74%
Sao
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
24.82%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.25
0.76
-1.49
0.80
0.61
-0.19
xG dominance was balanced (0.76 – 0.61).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
C. Lampe
G
C. Lampe
G
4
Jose Sagredo
D
Jose Sagredo
D
5
S. Echeverría
D
S. Echeverría
D
3
X. Arreaga
D
X. Arreaga
D
2
Jose Sagredo
54'
D
Jose Sagredo
54'
D
17
P. Rodríguez
76'
M
P. Rodríguez
76'
M
26
E. Saavedra
85'
M
E. Saavedra
85'
M
80
C. Melgar
1 ⚽
M
C. Melgar
1 ⚽
M
14
R. Matheus
85'
M
R. Matheus
85'
M
9
M. Cauteruccio
76'
F
M. Cauteruccio
76'
F
27
D. Asprilla
F
D. Asprilla
F
Bench
10
B. Arce
10'
M
B. Arce
10'
M
11
B. Miranda
19'
F
B. Miranda
19'
F
20
C. Sejas
M
C. Sejas
M
99
D. Batallini
41'
F
D. Batallini
41'
F
13
D. Méndez
G
D. Méndez
G
77
D. Romero
F
D. Romero
F
35
E. Rivero
D
E. Rivero
D
6
E. Vaca
10'
M
E. Vaca
10'
M
33
F. Mena
D
F. Mena
D
7
J. Velásquez
19'
F
J. Velásquez
19'
F
8
L. Paz
D
L. Paz
D
16
L. Zabala
D
L. Zabala
D
23
Rafael
G
Rafael
G
12
Iago
1 👟
61'
D
Iago
1 👟
61'
D
22
Domingos Duarte
D
Domingos Duarte
D
5
R. Arboleda
1 ⚽
D
R. Arboleda
1 ⚽
D
19
Lucas Ramon
83'
D
Lucas Ramon
83'
D
29
Pablo Maia
M
Pablo Maia
M
28
Newton
M
Newton
M
8
Marcos Antônio
71'
M
Marcos Antônio
71'
M
10
Luciano
71'
M
Luciano
71'
M
16
Damián Bobadilla
83'
M
Damián Bobadilla
83'
M
9
J. Calleri
F
J. Calleri
F
Bench
17
André Silva
F
André Silva
F
20
Aurélio Buta
12'
D
Aurélio Buta
12'
D
31
Carlos Coronel
G
Carlos Coronel
G
80
Cauly
12'
M
Cauly
12'
M
94
Danielzinho
24'
M
Danielzinho
24'
M
11
Ferreira
24'
F
Ferreira
24'
F
54
Osorio Luis
D
Osorio Luis
D
49
Ryan Francisco
F
Ryan Francisco
F
35
Sabino
D
Sabino
D
34
Tetê
F
Tetê
F
27
Victor Sá
F
Victor Sá
F
18
Wendell
34'
D
Wendell
34'
D
Best on the pitch
C. Melgar
M · Bolívar
8.00
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 74 pass
R. Arboleda
D · Sao
7.60
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 18 pass
X. Arreaga
D · Bolívar
7.20
· 67 pass
P. Rodríguez
M · Bolívar
7.20
1 shots
· 29 pass
Iago
D · Sao
7.20
1 👟
· 11 pass
R. Matheus
M · Bolívar
7.00
2 shots
· 40 pass
Bolívar — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Lampe | G | 95 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 29 | 25% | — | — | — |
| Jose Sagredo | D | 95 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 64 | 58% | — | — | — |
| S. Echeverría | D | 95 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 57 | 53% | — | — | — |
| X. Arreaga | D | 95 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 67 | 62% | 2 | — | — |
| Jose Sagredo | D | 54 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 40 | 36% | — | — | — |
| P. Rodríguez | M | 76 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 19% | — | — | — |
| E. Saavedra | M | 85 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 36 | 32% | — | — | — |
| C. Melgar | M | 95 | 8.00 | 1 | — | 2 | 74 | 68% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Matheus | M | 85 | 7.00 | — | — | 2 | 40 | 35% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Cauteruccio | F | 76 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 14% | — | — | — |
| D. Asprilla | F | 95 | 6.50 | — | — | 3 | 22 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| B. Arce | M | 10 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 15 | 13% | — | — | — |
| B. Miranda | F | 19 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 6 | 4% | — | — | — |
| D. Batallini | F | 41 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 16 | 15% | — | — | — |
| E. Vaca | M | 10 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 11 | 11% | — | — | — |
| J. Velásquez | F | 19 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
Sao Paulo — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael | G | 95 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 33 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Iago | D | 61 | 7.20 | — | 1 | — | 11 | 9% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Domingos Duarte | D | 95 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 21 | 15% | 2 | — | — |
| R. Arboleda | D | 95 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 1 | 18 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
| Lucas Ramon | D | 83 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 19 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Pablo Maia | M | 95 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 38 | 28% | 2 | — | — |
| Newton | M | 95 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 32 | 25% | — | — | — |
| Marcos Antônio | M | 71 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 37 | 32% | 1 | — | — |
| Luciano | M | 71 | 6.30 | — | — | 4 | 25 | 20% | 1 | — | — |
| Damián Bobadilla | M | 83 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 23 | 21% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Calleri | F | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 22 | 15% | — | — | — |
| Aurélio Buta | D | 12 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| Cauly | M | 12 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| Danielzinho | M | 24 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 11 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Ferreira | F | 24 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 9 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| Wendell | D | 34 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 11 | 8% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Bolívar vs Sao Paulo?
The final score was Bolívar 1–1 Sao Paulo.
What did the model predict before Bolívar vs Sao Paulo?
The model assigned 52% probability to a Bolívar win, 24% to a draw, and 22% to an Sao Paulo win.