Europa League
· Quarter-finals
April 09, 2026 21:00
J. Rowe
(ast. J. Lucumi)
90'
44'
(ast. Y. Tielemans)
E. Konsa
51'
(ast. E. Buendia)
O. Watkins
90'+4
(ast. Y. Tielemans)
O. Watkins
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Bologna a 41% win probability (draw 26%, Aston Villa 32%). The final result was Bologna 1–3 Aston Villa. In 2 previous meetings, Bologna have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 2 wins for Aston Villa.
Match statistics
9
Total shots
8
4
Shots on target
4
0.90
Actual xG
1.64
1
Saves
3
58%
Possession
42%
4
Corners
3
11
Tackles
14
2
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
J. Lucumi
14'
26'
44'
ast. Y. Tielemans ·
E. Konsa⚽
51'
ast. E. Buendia ·
O. Watkins⚽
T. Pobega
65'
L. Ferguson
/ R. Orsolini
67'
T. Pobega
/ N. Moro
67'
80'
L. Bogarde
/
A. Onana
S. Castro
/ J. Odgaard
82'
85'
M. Rogers
88'
L. Bailey
/
E. Buendia
88'
I. Maatsen
/
M. Rogers
90'+4
ast. Y. Tielemans ·
O. Watkins⚽
⚽J. Rowe
· ast. J. Lucumi
90'
R. Freuler
/ N. Cambiaghi
90'
Pre-match prediction
41.11%
Bologna
26.83%
X
32.06%
Aston ←
we assigned to the actual result (Aston Villa)
32.06%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.46
0.90
-0.56
1.02
1.64
+0.63
Aston Villa dominated by xG (1.64 vs 0.90).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
13
Federico Ravaglia
G
33
Juan Miranda
D
26
Jhon Lucumí
1 👟
D
Jhon Lucumí
1 👟
D
14
D
17
João Mário
D
4
T. Pobega
67'
M
T. Pobega
67'
M
8
R. Freuler
89'
M
R. Freuler
89'
M
19
L. Ferguson
67'
M
L. Ferguson
67'
M
11
J. Rowe
1 ⚽
F
J. Rowe
1 ⚽
F
9
S. Castro
82'
F
S. Castro
82'
F
10
F. Bernardeschi
F
F. Bernardeschi
F
Bench
21
J. Odgaard
8'
F
J. Odgaard
8'
F
20
Nadir Zortea
D
28
N. Cambiaghi
1'
F
N. Cambiaghi
1'
F
16
N. Casale
D
6
N. Moro
23'
M
N. Moro
23'
M
7
R. Orsolini
23'
F
R. Orsolini
23'
F
23
Simon Sohm
M
23
E. Martínez
G
E. Martínez
G
12
Lucas Digne
D
Lucas Digne
D
14
Pau Torres
D
Pau Torres
D
4
Ezri Konsa
1 ⚽
D
Ezri Konsa
1 ⚽
D
2
M. Cash
D
M. Cash
D
8
Y. Tielemans
2 👟
M
Y. Tielemans
2 👟
M
24
Amadou Onana
80'
M
Amadou Onana
80'
M
10
E. Buendía
1 👟
88'
M
E. Buendía
1 👟
88'
M
27
Morgan Rogers
88'
M
Morgan Rogers
88'
M
7
J. McGinn
M
J. McGinn
M
11
Ollie Watkins
2 ⚽
F
Ollie Watkins
2 ⚽
F
Bench
21
Douglas Luiz
M
Douglas Luiz
M
22
Ian Maatsen
2'
D
Ian Maatsen
2'
D
26
Lamare Bogarde
10'
M
Lamare Bogarde
10'
M
18
Tammy Abraham
F
Tammy Abraham
F
5
Tyrone Mings
D
Tyrone Mings
D
3
Victor Lindelöf
D
Victor Lindelöf
D
Best on the pitch
J. Rowe
F · Bologna
9.30
1 ⚽
4 shots
· 24 pass
Ollie Watkins
F · Aston
8.70
2 ⚽
2 shots
· 21 pass
Y. Tielemans
M · Aston
7.90
2 👟
· 48 pass
Ezri Konsa
D · Aston
7.50
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 40 pass
E. Martínez
G · Aston
7.20
· 50 pass
E. Buendía
M · Aston
7.00
1 👟
2 shots
· 26 pass
Bologna — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federico Ravaglia | G | 90 | 5.20 | — | — | — | 37 | 35% | — | — | — |
| Juan Miranda | D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 41 | 39% | 1 | — | — |
| Jhon Lucumí | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | 1 | — | 81 | 73% | 1 | 1 | — |
| D | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 60 | 55% | 3 | — | — | |
| João Mário | D | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 45 | 40% | 1 | — | — |
| T. Pobega | M | 67 | 6.00 | — | — | 1 | 20 | 18% | — | 1 | — |
| R. Freuler | M | 89 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 73 | 65% | 3 | — | — |
| L. Ferguson | M | 67 | 6.00 | — | — | 1 | 37 | 33% | — | — | — |
| J. Rowe | F | 90 | 9.30 | 1 | — | 4 | 24 | 20% | — | — | — |
| S. Castro | F | 82 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 8 | 5% | — | — | — |
| F. Bernardeschi | F | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 30 | 25% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Odgaard | F | 8 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| N. Cambiaghi | F | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — |
| N. Moro | M | 23 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 23 | 21% | — | — | — |
| R. Orsolini | F | 23 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 7 | 6% | — | — | — |
Aston Villa — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Martínez | G | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 50 | 30% | — | — | — |
| Lucas Digne | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 31 | 27% | 2 | — | — |
| Pau Torres | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 59 | 51% | 1 | — | — |
| Ezri Konsa | D | 90 | 7.50 | 1 | — | 1 | 40 | 38% | — | — | — |
| M. Cash | D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 18 | 14% | 2 | — | — |
| Y. Tielemans | M | 90 | 7.90 | — | 2 | — | 48 | 39% | 1 | — | — |
| Amadou Onana | M | 80 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 34 | 26% | 3 | — | — |
| E. Buendía | M | 88 | 7.00 | — | 1 | 2 | 26 | 18% | 3 | — | — |
| Morgan Rogers | M | 88 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 11 | 8% | — | 1 | — |
| J. McGinn | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Ollie Watkins | F | 90 | 8.70 | 2 | — | 2 | 21 | 17% | 2 | — | — |
| Ian Maatsen | D | 2 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Lamare Bogarde | M | 10 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Bologna vs Aston Villa?
The final score was Bologna 1–3 Aston Villa.
What did the model predict before Bologna vs Aston Villa?
The model assigned 41% probability to a Bologna win, 26% to a draw, and 32% to an Aston Villa win.