Europa League
· Quarter-finals
April 09, 2026 21:00
J. Rowe
(ast. J. Lucumi)
90'
44'
(ast. Y. Tielemans)
E. Konsa
51'
(ast. E. Buendia)
O. Watkins
90'+4
(ast. Y. Tielemans)
O. Watkins
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Bologna a 41% win probability (draw 26%, Aston Villa 32%). The final result was Bologna 1–3 Aston Villa. In 2 previous meetings, Bologna have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 2 wins for Aston Villa.
Match statistics
9
Total shots
8
4
Shots on target
4
0.90
Actual xG
1.64
1
Saves
3
58%
Possession
42%
4
Corners
3
11
Tackles
14
2
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
J. Lucumi
14'
26'
44'
ast. Y. Tielemans ·
E. Konsa⚽
51'
ast. E. Buendia ·
O. Watkins⚽
T. Pobega
65'
L. Ferguson
/ R. Orsolini
67'
T. Pobega
/ N. Moro
67'
80'
L. Bogarde
/
A. Onana
S. Castro
/ J. Odgaard
82'
85'
M. Rogers
88'
L. Bailey
/
E. Buendia
88'
I. Maatsen
/
M. Rogers
90'+4
ast. Y. Tielemans ·
O. Watkins⚽
⚽J. Rowe
· ast. J. Lucumi
90'
R. Freuler
/ N. Cambiaghi
90'
Pre-match prediction
41.11%
Bologna
26.83%
X
32.06%
Aston ←
we assigned to the actual result (Aston Villa)
32.06%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.46
0.90
-0.56
1.02
1.64
+0.63
Aston Villa dominated by xG (1.64 vs 0.90).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
13
F. Ravaglia
G
F. Ravaglia
G
33
Juan Miranda
D
Juan Miranda
D
26
Jhon Lucumí
1 👟
D
Jhon Lucumí
1 👟
D
14
D
17
João Mário
D
João Mário
D
4
T. Pobega
67'
M
T. Pobega
67'
M
8
R. Freuler
89'
M
R. Freuler
89'
M
19
L. Ferguson
67'
M
L. Ferguson
67'
M
11
J. Rowe
1 ⚽
F
J. Rowe
1 ⚽
F
9
Santiago Castro
82'
F
Santiago Castro
82'
F
10
Federico Bernardeschi
F
Federico Bernardeschi
F
Bench
21
J. Odgaard
8'
F
J. Odgaard
8'
F
20
Nadir Zortea
D
Nadir Zortea
D
28
N. Cambiaghi
1'
F
N. Cambiaghi
1'
F
16
Nicolò Casale
D
Nicolò Casale
D
6
N. Moro
23'
M
N. Moro
23'
M
7
R. Orsolini
23'
F
R. Orsolini
23'
F
23
S. Sohm
M
S. Sohm
M
23
Emiliano Martínez
G
Emiliano Martínez
G
12
L. Digne
D
L. Digne
D
14
Pau Torres
D
Pau Torres
D
4
E. Konsa
1 ⚽
D
E. Konsa
1 ⚽
D
2
M. Cash
D
M. Cash
D
8
Y. Tielemans
2 👟
M
Y. Tielemans
2 👟
M
24
Amadou Onana
80'
M
Amadou Onana
80'
M
10
E. Buendía
1 👟
88'
M
E. Buendía
1 👟
88'
M
27
M. Rogers
88'
M
M. Rogers
88'
M
7
J. McGinn
M
J. McGinn
M
11
O. Watkins
2 ⚽
F
O. Watkins
2 ⚽
F
Bench
21
Douglas Luiz
M
Douglas Luiz
M
22
I. Maatsen
2'
D
I. Maatsen
2'
D
26
L. Bogarde
10'
M
L. Bogarde
10'
M
18
T. Abraham
F
T. Abraham
F
5
T. Mings
D
T. Mings
D
3
V. Lindelöf
D
V. Lindelöf
D
Best on the pitch
J. Rowe
F · Bologna
9.30
1 ⚽
4 shots
· 24 pass
O. Watkins
F · Aston
8.70
2 ⚽
2 shots
· 21 pass
Y. Tielemans
M · Aston
7.90
2 👟
· 48 pass
E. Konsa
D · Aston
7.50
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 40 pass
Emiliano Martínez
G · Aston
7.20
· 50 pass
E. Buendía
M · Aston
7.00
1 👟
2 shots
· 26 pass
Bologna — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Ravaglia | G | 90 | 5.20 | — | — | — | 37 | 35% | — | — | — |
| Juan Miranda | D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 41 | 39% | 1 | — | — |
| Jhon Lucumí | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | 1 | — | 81 | 73% | 1 | 1 | — |
| D | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 60 | 55% | 3 | — | — | |
| João Mário | D | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 45 | 40% | 1 | — | — |
| T. Pobega | M | 67 | 6.00 | — | — | 1 | 20 | 18% | — | 1 | — |
| R. Freuler | M | 89 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 73 | 65% | 3 | — | — |
| L. Ferguson | M | 67 | 6.00 | — | — | 1 | 37 | 33% | — | — | — |
| J. Rowe | F | 90 | 9.30 | 1 | — | 4 | 24 | 20% | — | — | — |
| Santiago Castro | F | 82 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 8 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Federico Bernardeschi | F | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 30 | 25% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Odgaard | F | 8 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| N. Cambiaghi | F | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — |
| N. Moro | M | 23 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 23 | 21% | — | — | — |
| R. Orsolini | F | 23 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 7 | 6% | — | — | — |
Aston Villa — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emiliano Martínez | G | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 50 | 30% | — | — | — |
| L. Digne | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 31 | 27% | 2 | — | — |
| Pau Torres | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 59 | 51% | 1 | — | — |
| E. Konsa | D | 90 | 7.50 | 1 | — | 1 | 40 | 38% | — | — | — |
| M. Cash | D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 18 | 14% | 2 | — | — |
| Y. Tielemans | M | 90 | 7.90 | — | 2 | — | 48 | 39% | 1 | — | — |
| Amadou Onana | M | 80 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 34 | 26% | 3 | — | — |
| E. Buendía | M | 88 | 7.00 | — | 1 | 2 | 26 | 18% | 3 | — | — |
| M. Rogers | M | 88 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 11 | 8% | — | 1 | — |
| J. McGinn | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 11% | — | — | — |
| O. Watkins | F | 90 | 8.70 | 2 | — | 2 | 21 | 17% | 2 | — | — |
| I. Maatsen | D | 2 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| L. Bogarde | M | 10 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Bologna vs Aston Villa?
The final score was Bologna 1–3 Aston Villa.
What did the model predict before Bologna vs Aston Villa?
The model assigned 41% probability to a Bologna win, 26% to a draw, and 32% to an Aston Villa win.