Europa League
· Quarter-finals
April 09, 2026 21:00
J. Rowe
(ast. J. Lucumi)
90'
44'
(ast. Y. Tielemans)
E. Konsa
51'
(ast. E. Buendia)
O. Watkins
90'+4
(ast. Y. Tielemans)
O. Watkins
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Bologna a 41% win probability (draw 26%, Aston Villa 32%). The final result was Bologna 1–3 Aston Villa. In 2 previous meetings, Bologna have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 2 wins for Aston Villa.
Match statistics
9
Total shots
8
4
Shots on target
4
0.90
Actual xG
1.64
1
Saves
3
58%
Possession
42%
4
Corners
3
11
Tackles
14
2
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
J. Lucumi
14'
26'
44'
ast. Y. Tielemans ·
E. Konsa⚽
51'
ast. E. Buendia ·
O. Watkins⚽
T. Pobega
65'
L. Ferguson
/ R. Orsolini
67'
T. Pobega
/ N. Moro
67'
80'
L. Bogarde
/
A. Onana
S. Castro
/ J. Odgaard
82'
85'
M. Rogers
88'
L. Bailey
/
E. Buendia
88'
I. Maatsen
/
M. Rogers
90'+4
ast. Y. Tielemans ·
O. Watkins⚽
⚽J. Rowe
· ast. J. Lucumi
90'
R. Freuler
/ N. Cambiaghi
90'
Pre-match prediction
41.11%
Bologna
26.83%
X
32.06%
Aston ←
we assigned to the actual result (Aston Villa)
32.06%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.46
0.90
-0.56
1.02
1.64
+0.63
Aston Villa dominated by xG (1.64 vs 0.90).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
13
Federico Ravaglia
G
Federico Ravaglia
G
33
Juan Miranda
D
Juan Miranda
D
26
Jhon Lucumí
1 👟
D
Jhon Lucumí
1 👟
D
14
D
17
João Mário
D
João Mário
D
4
Tommaso Pobega
67'
M
Tommaso Pobega
67'
M
8
R. Freuler
89'
M
R. Freuler
89'
M
19
Lewis Ferguson
67'
M
Lewis Ferguson
67'
M
11
J. Rowe
1 ⚽
F
J. Rowe
1 ⚽
F
9
S. Castro
82'
F
S. Castro
82'
F
10
F. Bernardeschi
F
F. Bernardeschi
F
Bench
21
Jens Odgaard
8'
F
Jens Odgaard
8'
F
20
Nadir Zortea
D
Nadir Zortea
D
28
N. Cambiaghi
1'
F
16
N. Casale
D
6
Nikola Moro
23'
M
Nikola Moro
23'
M
7
Riccardo Orsolini
23'
F
Riccardo Orsolini
23'
F
23
Simon Sohm
M
Simon Sohm
M
23
Emiliano Martínez
G
Emiliano Martínez
G
12
Lucas Digne
D
Lucas Digne
D
14
Pau Torres
D
Pau Torres
D
4
Ezri Konsa
1 ⚽
D
Ezri Konsa
1 ⚽
D
2
Matty Cash
D
Matty Cash
D
8
Y. Tielemans
2 👟
M
Y. Tielemans
2 👟
M
24
A. Onana
80'
M
10
E. Buendía
1 👟
88'
M
E. Buendía
1 👟
88'
M
27
M. Rogers
88'
M
M. Rogers
88'
M
7
J. McGinn
M
J. McGinn
M
11
O. Watkins
2 ⚽
F
O. Watkins
2 ⚽
F
Bench
21
Douglas Luiz
M
Douglas Luiz
M
22
Ian Maatsen
2'
D
Ian Maatsen
2'
D
26
Lamare Bogarde
10'
M
Lamare Bogarde
10'
M
18
Tammy Abraham
F
Tammy Abraham
F
5
Tyrone Mings
D
Tyrone Mings
D
3
Victor Lindelöf
D
Victor Lindelöf
D
Best on the pitch
J. Rowe
F · Bologna
9.30
1 ⚽
4 shots
· 24 pass
O. Watkins
F · Aston
8.70
2 ⚽
2 shots
· 21 pass
Y. Tielemans
M · Aston
7.90
2 👟
· 48 pass
Ezri Konsa
D · Aston
7.50
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 40 pass
Emiliano Martínez
G · Aston
7.20
· 50 pass
E. Buendía
M · Aston
7.00
1 👟
2 shots
· 26 pass
Bologna — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federico Ravaglia | G | 90 | 5.20 | — | — | — | 37 | 35% | — | — | — |
| Juan Miranda | D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 41 | 39% | 1 | — | — |
| Jhon Lucumí | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | 1 | — | 81 | 73% | 1 | 1 | — |
| D | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 60 | 55% | 3 | — | — | |
| João Mário | D | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 45 | 40% | 1 | — | — |
| Tommaso Pobega | M | 67 | 6.00 | — | — | 1 | 20 | 18% | — | 1 | — |
| R. Freuler | M | 89 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 73 | 65% | 3 | — | — |
| Lewis Ferguson | M | 67 | 6.00 | — | — | 1 | 37 | 33% | — | — | — |
| J. Rowe | F | 90 | 9.30 | 1 | — | 4 | 24 | 20% | — | — | — |
| S. Castro | F | 82 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 8 | 5% | — | — | — |
| F. Bernardeschi | F | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 30 | 25% | 1 | — | — |
| Jens Odgaard | F | 8 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| N. Cambiaghi | F | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — |
| Nikola Moro | M | 23 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 23 | 21% | — | — | — |
| Riccardo Orsolini | F | 23 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 7 | 6% | — | — | — |
Aston Villa — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emiliano Martínez | G | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 50 | 30% | — | — | — |
| Lucas Digne | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 31 | 27% | 2 | — | — |
| Pau Torres | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 59 | 51% | 1 | — | — |
| Ezri Konsa | D | 90 | 7.50 | 1 | — | 1 | 40 | 38% | — | — | — |
| Matty Cash | D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 18 | 14% | 2 | — | — |
| Y. Tielemans | M | 90 | 7.90 | — | 2 | — | 48 | 39% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Onana | M | 80 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 34 | 26% | 3 | — | — |
| E. Buendía | M | 88 | 7.00 | — | 1 | 2 | 26 | 18% | 3 | — | — |
| M. Rogers | M | 88 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 11 | 8% | — | 1 | — |
| J. McGinn | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 11% | — | — | — |
| O. Watkins | F | 90 | 8.70 | 2 | — | 2 | 21 | 17% | 2 | — | — |
| Ian Maatsen | D | 2 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Lamare Bogarde | M | 10 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Bologna vs Aston Villa?
The final score was Bologna 1–3 Aston Villa.
What did the model predict before Bologna vs Aston Villa?
The model assigned 41% probability to a Bologna win, 26% to a draw, and 32% to an Aston Villa win.