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Serie A · Regular Season - 32 April 12, 2026 18:00 Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna
Bologna
#11 · 11 pts
2 – 0
Final score
Lecce
#14 · 9 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Bologna
R. Freuler 26'
R. Orsolini (ast. F. Bernardeschi) 90'
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Bologna a 57% win probability (draw 27%, Lecce 14%). The final result was Bologna 2–0 Lecce. In 2 previous meetings, Bologna have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Lecce.

Match statistics
9
Total shots
4
4
Shots on target
1
2.19
Actual xG
0.32
1
Saves
2
64%
Possession
36%
8
Corners
6
11
Tackles
11
0
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
⚽R. Freuler
26'
36'
Oumar Ngom
38'
Jamil Siebert
46'
O. Gandelman / O. Ngom ↕
46'
A. Gallo / C. Ndaba ↕
64'
K. Ndri / L. Banda ↕
64'
W. Cheddira / N. Stulic ↕
↕ Joao Mario / N. Zortea
66'
↕ N. Cambiaghi / J. Rowe
74'
↕ S. Sohm / T. Pobega
74'
83'
A. Sala / S. Pierotti ↕
↕ N. Moro / F. Bernardeschi
85'
↕ S. Castro / J. Odgaard
85'
⚽R. Orsolini · ast. F. Bernardeschi
90'
Pre-match prediction
57.81%
Bologna ←
27.25%
X
14.94%
Lecce
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Bologna) 57.81% (medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Bologna
1.42
2.19
+0.77
Lecce
0.60
0.32
-0.28
Bologna dominated by xG (2.19 vs 0.32). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Inter Inter 9 25
2 Lazio Lazio 9 25
3 AS Roma AS Roma 9 21
4 Como Como 9 20
5 AC Milan AC Milan 9 18
6 Napoli Napoli 9 14
7 Frosinone Frosinone 8 14
8 Juventus Juventus 9 14
9 Torino Torino 9 13
10 Cagliari Cagliari 9 13
11 Bologna Bologna 9 11
12 Atalanta Atalanta 8 10
13 Genoa Genoa 9 10
14 Lecce Lecce 8 9
15 Sassuolo Sassuolo 9 8
16 Monza Monza 9 7
17 Udinese Udinese 9 5
18 Parma Parma 9 5
19 Fiorentina Fiorentina 8 4
20 Venezia Venezia 9 3
Lineups
Bologna Bologna 4-2-3-1
25
G 7.50
33 Juan Miranda Juan Miranda D 7.70
26 J. Lucumí J. Lucumí D 7.70
16 N. Casale N. Casale D 7.00
17 João Mário João Mário 66' D 7.30
6 N. Moro N. Moro 85' M 7.90
8 R. Freuler R. Freuler 1 ⚽ M 7.20
28 N. Cambiaghi N. Cambiaghi 74' M 7.20
23 S. Sohm S. Sohm 74' M 7.00
7 R. Orsolini R. Orsolini 1 ⚽ M 8.30
9 S. Castro S. Castro 85' F 6.50
Bench
10 F. Bernardeschi F. Bernardeschi 1 👟 10' F 6.90
13 F. Ravaglia F. Ravaglia G
21 J. Odgaard J. Odgaard 10' F 6.30
11 J. Rowe J. Rowe 16' F 6.90
29 L. De Silvestri L. De Silvestri D
20 N. Zortea N. Zortea 24' D 6.90
4 T. Pobega T. Pobega 16' M 6.50
Lecce Lecce 4-2-3-1
30
G 6.30
3 C. Ndaba C. Ndaba 45' D 5.60
5 J. Siebert J. Siebert D 7.00
44 Tiago Gabriel Tiago Gabriel D 6.50
17 Danilo Veiga Danilo Veiga D 5.90
79 O. Ngom O. Ngom 45' M 6.70
20 Ylber Ramadani Ylber Ramadani M 6.60
19 L. Banda L. Banda 64' M 6.30
29 L. Coulibaly L. Coulibaly M 6.30
50 S. Pierotti S. Pierotti 83' M 6.30
9 N. Štulić N. Štulić 64' F 6.30
Bench
25 A. Gallo A. Gallo 45' D 6.70
11 K. N’Dri K. N’Dri 26' F 6.50
16 O. Gandelman O. Gandelman 45' M 6.30
8 S. Fofana S. Fofana M
99 W. Cheddira W. Cheddira 26' F 6.70
Best on the pitch
R. Orsolini
R. Orsolini
M · Bologna
8.30
1 ⚽
3 shots · 27 pass
N. Moro
N. Moro
M · Bologna
7.90
1 shots · 59 pass
Juan Miranda
Juan Miranda
D · Bologna
7.70
· 52 pass
J. Lucumí
J. Lucumí
D · Bologna
7.70
· 82 pass
G · Bologna
7.50
· 35 pass
João Mário
João Mário
D · Bologna
7.30
· 24 pass
Bologna Bologna — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 7.50 — — — 35 26% — — —
Juan Miranda D 90 7.70 — — — 52 40% 3 — —
J. Lucumí D 90 7.70 — — — 82 74% 2 — —
N. Casale D 90 7.00 — — 1 61 56% 1 — —
João Mário D 66 7.30 — — — 24 22% 1 — —
N. Moro M 85 7.90 — — 1 59 55% 1 — —
R. Freuler M 90 7.20 1 — 1 66 57% — — —
N. Cambiaghi M 74 7.20 — — — 24 20% 2 — —
S. Sohm M 74 7.00 — — 1 37 33% 1 — —
R. Orsolini M 90 8.30 1 — 3 27 20% — — —
S. Castro F 85 6.50 — — 1 10 8% — — —
F. Bernardeschi F 10 6.90 — 1 — 2 2% — — —
J. Odgaard F 10 6.30 — — 1 1 — — — —
J. Rowe F 16 6.90 — — — 3 1% — — —
N. Zortea D 24 6.90 — — — 4 3% — — —
T. Pobega M 16 6.50 — — — 6 2% — — —
Lecce Lecce — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 6.30 — — — 39 19% — — —
C. Ndaba D 45 5.60 — — — 10 8% — — —
J. Siebert D 90 7.00 — — — 28 23% 1 1 —
Tiago Gabriel D 90 6.50 — — — 39 35% 1 — —
Danilo Veiga D 90 5.90 — — — 20 14% 2 — —
O. Ngom M 45 6.70 — — — 14 14% 1 1 —
Ylber Ramadani M 90 6.60 — — 1 32 24% — — —
L. Banda M 64 6.30 — — 1 8 6% — — —
L. Coulibaly M 90 6.30 — — 1 18 10% 1 — —
S. Pierotti M 83 6.30 — — — 17 11% 4 — —
N. Štulić F 64 6.30 — — 1 8 6% — — —
A. Gallo D 45 6.70 — — — 11 8% 1 — —
K. N’Dri F 26 6.50 — — — 5 2% — — —
O. Gandelman M 45 6.30 — — — 13 6% — — —
W. Cheddira F 26 6.70 — — — 4 3% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Bologna vs Lecce?
The final score was Bologna 2–0 Lecce.
What did the model predict before Bologna vs Lecce?
The model assigned 57% probability to a Bologna win, 27% to a draw, and 14% to an Lecce win.