✓Model correct — prediction Bologna
R. Freuler
26'
R. Orsolini
(ast. F. Bernardeschi)
90'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Bologna a 57% win probability (draw 27%, Lecce 14%). The final result was Bologna 2–0 Lecce. In 1 previous meetings, Bologna have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Lecce.
Match statistics
9
Total shots
4
4
Shots on target
1
2.19
Actual xG
0.32
1
Saves
2
64%
Possession
36%
8
Corners
6
11
Tackles
11
0
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
⚽R. Freuler
26'
36'
Oumar Ngom
38'
Jamil Siebert
46'
O. Gandelman
/
O. Ngom
46'
A. Gallo
/
C. Ndaba
64'
K. Ndri
/
L. Banda
64'
W. Cheddira
/
N. Stulic
Joao Mario
/ N. Zortea
66'
N. Cambiaghi
/ J. Rowe
74'
S. Sohm
/ T. Pobega
74'
83'
A. Sala
/
S. Pierotti
N. Moro
/ F. Bernardeschi
85'
S. Castro
/ J. Odgaard
85'
⚽R. Orsolini
· ast. F. Bernardeschi
90'
Pre-match prediction
57.81%
Bologna ←
27.25%
X
14.94%
Lecce
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Bologna)
57.81%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.42
2.19
+0.77
0.60
0.32
-0.28
Bologna dominated by xG (2.19 vs 0.32).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
25
G
33
Juan Miranda
D
Juan Miranda
D
26
J. Lucumí
D
J. Lucumí
D
16
Nicolò Casale
D
Nicolò Casale
D
17
João Mário
66'
D
João Mário
66'
D
6
Nikola Moro
85'
M
Nikola Moro
85'
M
8
R. Freuler
1 ⚽
M
R. Freuler
1 ⚽
M
28
Nicolò Cambiaghi
74'
M
Nicolò Cambiaghi
74'
M
23
Simon Sohm
74'
M
Simon Sohm
74'
M
7
R. Orsolini
1 ⚽
M
R. Orsolini
1 ⚽
M
9
S. Castro
85'
F
S. Castro
85'
F
Bench
10
Federico Bernardeschi
1 👟
10'
F
Federico Bernardeschi
1 👟
10'
F
13
F. Ravaglia
G
F. Ravaglia
G
21
Jens Odgaard
10'
F
Jens Odgaard
10'
F
11
Jonathan Rowe
16'
F
Jonathan Rowe
16'
F
29
Lorenzo De Silvestri
D
Lorenzo De Silvestri
D
20
N. Zortea
24'
D
N. Zortea
24'
D
4
Tommaso Pobega
16'
M
Tommaso Pobega
16'
M
30
G
3
Corrie Ndaba
45'
D
Corrie Ndaba
45'
D
5
Jamil Siebert
D
Jamil Siebert
D
44
Tiago Gabriel
D
Tiago Gabriel
D
17
Danilo Veiga
D
Danilo Veiga
D
79
Oumar Ngom
45'
M
Oumar Ngom
45'
M
20
Ylber Ramadani
M
Ylber Ramadani
M
19
L. Banda
64'
M
L. Banda
64'
M
29
Lassana Coulibaly
M
Lassana Coulibaly
M
50
Santiago Pierotti
83'
M
Santiago Pierotti
83'
M
9
Nikola Štulić
64'
F
Nikola Štulić
64'
F
Bench
25
Antonino Gallo
45'
D
Antonino Gallo
45'
D
11
N'Dri Konan
26'
F
N'Dri Konan
26'
F
16
O. Gandelman
45'
M
O. Gandelman
45'
M
8
Sadik Fofana
M
Sadik Fofana
M
99
W. Cheddira
26'
F
W. Cheddira
26'
F
Best on the pitch
R. Orsolini
M · Bologna
8.30
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 27 pass
Nikola Moro
M · Bologna
7.90
1 shots
· 59 pass
Juan Miranda
D · Bologna
7.70
· 52 pass
J. Lucumí
D · Bologna
7.70
· 82 pass
G · Bologna
7.50
· 35 pass
João Mário
D · Bologna
7.30
· 24 pass
Bologna — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 35 | 26% | — | — | — | |
| Juan Miranda | D | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 52 | 40% | 3 | — | — |
| J. Lucumí | D | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 82 | 74% | 2 | — | — |
| Nicolò Casale | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 61 | 56% | 1 | — | — |
| João Mário | D | 66 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 24 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| Nikola Moro | M | 85 | 7.90 | — | — | 1 | 59 | 55% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Freuler | M | 90 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 66 | 57% | — | — | — |
| Nicolò Cambiaghi | M | 74 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 24 | 20% | 2 | — | — |
| Simon Sohm | M | 74 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 37 | 33% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Orsolini | M | 90 | 8.30 | 1 | — | 3 | 27 | 20% | — | — | — |
| S. Castro | F | 85 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Federico Bernardeschi | F | 10 | 6.90 | — | 1 | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Jens Odgaard | F | 10 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Rowe | F | 16 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 3 | 1% | — | — | — |
| N. Zortea | D | 24 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 4 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Tommaso Pobega | M | 16 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 6 | 2% | — | — | — |
Lecce — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 39 | 19% | — | — | — | |
| Corrie Ndaba | D | 45 | 5.60 | — | — | — | 10 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Jamil Siebert | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 28 | 23% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Tiago Gabriel | D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 39 | 35% | 1 | — | — |
| Danilo Veiga | D | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 20 | 14% | 2 | — | — |
| Oumar Ngom | M | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 14 | 14% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Ylber Ramadani | M | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 32 | 24% | — | — | — |
| L. Banda | M | 64 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 8 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Lassana Coulibaly | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| Santiago Pierotti | M | 83 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 17 | 11% | 4 | — | — |
| Nikola Štulić | F | 64 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 8 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Antonino Gallo | D | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 11 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| N'Dri Konan | F | 26 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 5 | 2% | — | — | — |
| O. Gandelman | M | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 13 | 6% | — | — | — |
| W. Cheddira | F | 26 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 4 | 3% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Bologna vs Lecce?
The final score was Bologna 2–0 Lecce.
What did the model predict before Bologna vs Lecce?
The model assigned 57% probability to a Bologna win, 27% to a draw, and 14% to an Lecce win.