✓Model correct — prediction Bologna
R. Freuler
26'
R. Orsolini
(ast. F. Bernardeschi)
90'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Bologna a 57% win probability (draw 27%, Lecce 14%). The final result was Bologna 2–0 Lecce. In 1 previous meetings, Bologna have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Lecce.
Match statistics
9
Total shots
4
4
Shots on target
1
2.19
Actual xG
0.32
1
Saves
2
64%
Possession
36%
8
Corners
6
11
Tackles
11
0
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
⚽R. Freuler
26'
36'
Oumar Ngom
38'
Jamil Siebert
46'
O. Gandelman
/
O. Ngom
46'
A. Gallo
/
C. Ndaba
64'
K. Ndri
/
L. Banda
64'
W. Cheddira
/
N. Stulic
Joao Mario
/ N. Zortea
66'
N. Cambiaghi
/ J. Rowe
74'
S. Sohm
/ T. Pobega
74'
83'
A. Sala
/
S. Pierotti
N. Moro
/ F. Bernardeschi
85'
S. Castro
/ J. Odgaard
85'
⚽R. Orsolini
· ast. F. Bernardeschi
90'
Pre-match prediction
57.81%
Bologna ←
27.25%
X
14.94%
Lecce
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Bologna)
57.81%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.42
2.19
+0.77
0.60
0.32
-0.28
Bologna dominated by xG (2.19 vs 0.32).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
25
G
33
Juan Miranda
D
26
Jhon Lucumí
D
Jhon Lucumí
D
16
N. Casale
D
17
João Mário
66'
D
6
N. Moro
85'
M
N. Moro
85'
M
8
R. Freuler
1 ⚽
M
R. Freuler
1 ⚽
M
28
N. Cambiaghi
74'
M
N. Cambiaghi
74'
M
23
Simon Sohm
74'
M
7
R. Orsolini
1 ⚽
M
R. Orsolini
1 ⚽
M
9
S. Castro
85'
F
S. Castro
85'
F
Bench
10
F. Bernardeschi
1 👟
10'
F
F. Bernardeschi
1 👟
10'
F
13
Federico Ravaglia
G
21
J. Odgaard
10'
F
J. Odgaard
10'
F
11
J. Rowe
16'
F
J. Rowe
16'
F
29
Lorenzo De Silvestri
D
20
Nadir Zortea
24'
D
4
T. Pobega
16'
M
T. Pobega
16'
M
30
G
3
Corrie Ndaba
45'
D
Corrie Ndaba
45'
D
5
J. Siebert
D
J. Siebert
D
44
Tiago Gabriel
D
Tiago Gabriel
D
17
Danilo Veiga
D
Danilo Veiga
D
79
Oumar Ngom
45'
M
Oumar Ngom
45'
M
20
Ylber Ramadani
M
19
L. Banda
64'
M
L. Banda
64'
M
29
Lassana Coulibaly
M
Lassana Coulibaly
M
50
Santiago Pierotti
83'
M
Santiago Pierotti
83'
M
9
Nikola Štulić
64'
F
Nikola Štulić
64'
F
Bench
25
Antonino Gallo
45'
D
Antonino Gallo
45'
D
11
N'Dri Konan
26'
F
16
Omri Gandelman
45'
M
Omri Gandelman
45'
M
8
Sadik Fofana
M
Sadik Fofana
M
99
Walid Cheddira
26'
F
Walid Cheddira
26'
F
Best on the pitch
R. Orsolini
M · Bologna
8.30
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 27 pass
N. Moro
M · Bologna
7.90
1 shots
· 59 pass
Juan Miranda
D · Bologna
7.70
· 52 pass
Jhon Lucumí
D · Bologna
7.70
· 82 pass
G · Bologna
7.50
· 35 pass
João Mário
D · Bologna
7.30
· 24 pass
Bologna — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 35 | 26% | — | — | — | |
| Juan Miranda | D | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 52 | 40% | 3 | — | — |
| Jhon Lucumí | D | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 82 | 74% | 2 | — | — |
| N. Casale | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 61 | 56% | 1 | — | — |
| João Mário | D | 66 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 24 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| N. Moro | M | 85 | 7.90 | — | — | 1 | 59 | 55% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Freuler | M | 90 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 66 | 57% | — | — | — |
| N. Cambiaghi | M | 74 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 24 | 20% | 2 | — | — |
| Simon Sohm | M | 74 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 37 | 33% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Orsolini | M | 90 | 8.30 | 1 | — | 3 | 27 | 20% | — | — | — |
| S. Castro | F | 85 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 8% | — | — | — |
| F. Bernardeschi | F | 10 | 6.90 | — | 1 | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| J. Odgaard | F | 10 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| J. Rowe | F | 16 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 3 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Nadir Zortea | D | 24 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 4 | 3% | — | — | — |
| T. Pobega | M | 16 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 6 | 2% | — | — | — |
Lecce — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 39 | 19% | — | — | — | |
| Corrie Ndaba | D | 45 | 5.60 | — | — | — | 10 | 8% | — | — | — |
| J. Siebert | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 28 | 23% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Tiago Gabriel | D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 39 | 35% | 1 | — | — |
| Danilo Veiga | D | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 20 | 14% | 2 | — | — |
| Oumar Ngom | M | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 14 | 14% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Ylber Ramadani | M | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 32 | 24% | — | — | — |
| L. Banda | M | 64 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 8 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Lassana Coulibaly | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| Santiago Pierotti | M | 83 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 17 | 11% | 4 | — | — |
| Nikola Štulić | F | 64 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 8 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Antonino Gallo | D | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 11 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| N'Dri Konan | F | 26 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 5 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Omri Gandelman | M | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 13 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Walid Cheddira | F | 26 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 4 | 3% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Bologna vs Lecce?
The final score was Bologna 2–0 Lecce.
What did the model predict before Bologna vs Lecce?
The model assigned 57% probability to a Bologna win, 27% to a draw, and 14% to an Lecce win.