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Championship · Regular Season - 12 October 23, 2026 21:00 Toughsheet Community Stadium, Bolton
Bolton
#18 · 14 pts
1 – 5
Final score
Middlesbrough
#1 · 25 pts
Thelonius Bair (ast. Gaizka Larrazabal) 45'+2
13' (ast. Amario Cozier-Duberry) Aidan Morris
31' (ast. Tommy Conway) will lankshear
(og) 39' Lewis Brunt
73' (ast. Riley McGree) Amario Cozier-Duberry
78' (ast. Riley McGree) will lankshear
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Middlesbrough a 48% win probability (draw 23%, Bolton 28%). The final result was Bolton 1–5 Middlesbrough.

Match statistics
12
Total shots
31
4
Shots on target
12
0.94
Actual xG
4.19
8
Saves
3
39%
Possession
61%
2
Corners
12
11
Tackles
10
1
🟨 Yellow cards
0
Match Events
13'
ast. Amario Cozier-Duberry · Aidan Morris⚽
31'
ast. Tommy Conway · will lankshear⚽
39'
(og) Lewis Brunt⚽
⚽Thelonius Bair · ast. Gaizka Larrazabal
45'+2
↕ Akin Famewo / Max Conway
45'
↕ Ruben Rodrigues / Atsuki Ito
45'
↕ Thelonius Bair / Sam Dalby
55'
↕ Ethan Erhahon / Ryan Hardie
55'
Josh Sheehan
63'
69'
Max Arfsten / Tommy Conway ↕
73'
ast. Riley McGree · Amario Cozier-Duberry⚽
↕ Kyliane Dong / Xavier Simons
74'
78'
ast. Riley McGree · will lankshear⚽
79'
Leo Castledine / Riley McGree ↕
79'
Jeremy Sarmiento / Amario Cozier-Duberry ↕
79'
Kyle Joseph / will lankshear ↕
86'
Myles Peart-Harris / Sebastian Berhalter ↕
Pre-match prediction
28.14%
Bolton
23.68%
X
48.18%
Middlesbrough ←
we assigned to the actual result (Middlesbrough) 48.18% (medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Bolton
1.60
0.94
-0.66
Middlesbrough
2.21
4.19
+1.98
Middlesbrough dominated by xG (4.19 vs 0.94). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 12 25
2 Swansea Swansea 12 23
3 West Ham West Ham 12 22
4 Wolves Wolves 12 21
5 West Brom West Brom 12 21
6 Southampton Southampton 12 20
7 Birmingham Birmingham 12 20
8 QPR QPR 12 20
9 Stoke City Stoke City 12 20
10 Blackburn Blackburn 12 18
11 Portsmouth Portsmouth 12 18
12 Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 12 16
13 Millwall Millwall 12 15
14 Bristol City Bristol City 12 15
15 Lincoln Lincoln 12 15
16 Cardiff Cardiff 12 14
17 Wrexham Wrexham 12 14
18 Bolton Bolton 12 14
19 Charlton Charlton 12 14
20 Norwich Norwich 12 12
21 Watford Watford 12 11
22 Burnley Burnley 12 8
23 Derby Derby 12 7
24 Preston Preston 12 5
Lineups
Bolton Bolton 4-2-3-1
31 G. Bazunu G. Bazunu G 7.15
14 A. Famewo A. Famewo 45' D 5.68
5 L. Brunt L. Brunt 1 ⚽ D 5.11
18 E. Toal E. Toal D 6.00
22 Gaizka Larrazabal Gaizka Larrazabal 1 👟 D 6.45
21 E. Erhahon E. Erhahon 55' M 5.87
8 J. Sheehan J. Sheehan M 5.75
11 T. Gale T. Gale M 6.36
20 Ruben Rodrigues Ruben Rodrigues 45' M 6.40
7 K. Dong K. Dong 74' M 6.21
9 T. Bair T. Bair 1 ⚽ 55' F 7.49
Bench
17 A. Ito A. Ito 45' M 5.72
6 B. Davies B. Davies D 0.00
1 J. Bonham J. Bonham G 0.00
27 Luca Stephenson Luca Stephenson M 0.00
25 M. Conway M. Conway 45' D 5.93
39 R. Hardie R. Hardie 35' F 6.78
10 S. Dalby S. Dalby 35' F 6.26
16 S. Iling-Junior S. Iling-Junior F 0.00
4 X. Simons X. Simons 16' M 5.85
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 4-2-3-1
1 R. Vítek R. Vítek G 6.58
30 Neto Borges Neto Borges D 7.13
29 A. Malanda A. Malanda D 6.78
4 A. Phillips A. Phillips D 6.23
2 C. Brittain C. Brittain D 6.94
6 S. Berhalter S. Berhalter 86' M 7.20
10 A. Morris A. Morris 1 ⚽ M 8.20
9 T. Conway T. Conway 1 👟 69' M 7.70
8 R. McGree R. McGree 2 👟 79' M 8.60
11 A. Cozier-Duberry A. Cozier-Duberry 1 ⚽ 1 👟 79' M 8.77
7 W. Lankshear W. Lankshear 2 ⚽ 79' F 9.15
Bench
18 C. Barron C. Barron M 0.00
16 J. Sarmiento J. Sarmiento 11' F 6.27
22 K. Joseph K. Joseph 11' F 6.44
12 L. Ayling L. Ayling D 0.00
19 Leo Castledine Leo Castledine 11' M 6.40
17 M. Arfsten M. Arfsten 21' D 6.47
14 M. Peart-Harris M. Peart-Harris 4' M 6.25
31 S. Brynn S. Brynn G 0.00
3 S. Byram S. Byram D 0.00
Best on the pitch
W. Lankshear
W. Lankshear
F · Middlesbrough
9.15
2 ⚽
6 shots · 14 pass
A. Cozier-Duberry
A. Cozier-Duberry
M · Middlesbrough
8.77
1 ⚽ 1 👟
6 shots · 22 pass
R. McGree
R. McGree
M · Middlesbrough
8.60
2 👟
2 shots · 45 pass
A. Morris
A. Morris
M · Middlesbrough
8.20
1 ⚽
2 shots · 71 pass
T. Conway
T. Conway
M · Middlesbrough
7.70
1 👟
6 shots · 38 pass
T. Bair
T. Bair
F · Bolton
7.49
1 ⚽
2 shots · 12 pass
Bolton Bolton — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G. Bazunu G 90 7.15 — — 0 43 28% 0 — —
A. Famewo D 45 5.68 — — 0 15 10% 2 — —
L. Brunt D 90 5.11 1 — 0 50 46% 1 — —
E. Toal D 90 6.00 — — 0 37 34% 0 — —
Gaizka Larrazabal D 90 6.45 — 1 0 34 29% 0 — —
E. Erhahon M 55 5.87 — — 0 15 13% 0 — —
J. Sheehan M 90 5.75 — — 1 43 35% 1 1 —
T. Gale M 90 6.36 — — 1 24 22% 2 — —
Ruben Rodrigues M 45 6.40 — — 3 16 13% 1 — —
K. Dong M 74 6.21 — — 2 16 14% 1 — —
T. Bair F 55 7.49 1 — 2 12 10% 0 — —
A. Ito M 45 5.72 — — 0 12 12% 0 — —
M. Conway D 45 5.93 — — 1 24 23% 0 — —
R. Hardie F 35 6.78 — — 1 9 7% 1 — —
S. Dalby F 35 6.26 — — 0 12 7% 1 — —
X. Simons M 16 5.85 — — 1 5 5% 1 — —
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
R. Vítek G 90 6.58 — — 0 20 17% 0 — —
Neto Borges D 90 7.13 — — 1 66 64% 3 — —
A. Malanda D 90 6.78 — — 2 101 90% 2 — —
A. Phillips D 90 6.23 — — 1 58 48% 0 — —
C. Brittain D 90 6.94 — — 2 49 43% 1 — —
S. Berhalter M 86 7.20 — — 2 42 37% 1 — —
A. Morris M 90 8.20 1 — 2 71 64% 2 — —
T. Conway M 69 7.70 — 1 6 38 36% 0 — —
R. McGree M 79 8.60 — 2 2 45 41% 0 — —
A. Cozier-Duberry M 79 8.77 1 1 6 22 18% 0 — —
W. Lankshear F 79 9.15 2 — 6 14 9% 0 — —
J. Sarmiento F 11 6.27 — — 0 6 3% 0 — —
K. Joseph F 11 6.44 — — 0 2 2% 0 — —
Leo Castledine M 11 6.40 — — 0 4 4% 1 — —
M. Arfsten D 21 6.47 — — 1 13 12% 0 — —
M. Peart-Harris M 4 6.25 — — 0 3 3% 0 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Bolton vs Middlesbrough?
The final score was Bolton 1–5 Middlesbrough.
What did the model predict before Bolton vs Middlesbrough?
The model assigned 28% probability to a Bolton win, 23% to a draw, and 48% to an Middlesbrough win.