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Championship · Regular Season - 9 October 10, 2026 16:00 Toughsheet Community Stadium, Bolton
Bolton
#18 · 14 pts
1 – 2
Final score
Stoke City
#9 · 20 pts
Thelonius Bair (ast. Gaizka Larrazabal) 90'+2
45'+4 (ast. Ethan Galbraith) Lamine Cissé
62' (ast. Jack Mcglynn) Ben Wilmot
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Bolton a 36% win probability (draw 29%, Stoke City 33%). The final result was Bolton 1–2 Stoke City.

Match statistics
30
Total shots
9
5
Shots on target
4
2.96
Actual xG
0.71
2
Saves
4
68%
Possession
32%
10
Corners
4
15
Tackles
17
1
🟨 Yellow cards
1
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
20'
Maksym Taloverov
34'
Jack Mcglynn
45'+4
ast. Ethan Galbraith · Lamine Cissé⚽
45'
Luca Bombino / Justin Devenny ↕
↕ Ethan Erhahon / Atsuki Ito
45'
↕ Thierry Gale / Jayden Nelson
56'
↕ Kyliane Dong / Samuel Iling
56'
62'
ast. Jack Mcglynn · Ben Wilmot⚽
↕ Ruben Rodrigues / Ryan Hardie
63'
69'
Bosun Lawal / El Hadji Soumare ↕
69'
George Hirst / Lamine Cissé ↕
69'
Junior Tchamadeu / Jack Mcglynn ↕
Max Conway
72'
↕ Ben Davies / Thelonius Bair
82'
⚽Thelonius Bair · ast. Gaizka Larrazabal
90'+2
Pre-match prediction
36.31%
Bolton
29.94%
X
33.75%
Stoke ←
we assigned to the actual result (Stoke City) 33.75% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Bolton
1.51
2.96
+1.45
Stoke
1.46
0.71
-0.75
Bolton dominated by xG (2.96 vs 0.71). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 12 25
2 Swansea Swansea 12 23
3 West Ham West Ham 12 22
4 Wolves Wolves 12 21
5 West Brom West Brom 12 21
6 Southampton Southampton 12 20
7 Birmingham Birmingham 12 20
8 QPR QPR 12 20
9 Stoke City Stoke City 12 20
10 Blackburn Blackburn 12 18
11 Portsmouth Portsmouth 12 18
12 Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 12 16
13 Millwall Millwall 12 15
14 Bristol City Bristol City 12 15
15 Lincoln Lincoln 12 15
16 Cardiff Cardiff 12 14
17 Wrexham Wrexham 12 14
18 Bolton Bolton 12 14
19 Charlton Charlton 12 14
20 Norwich Norwich 12 12
21 Watford Watford 12 11
22 Burnley Burnley 12 8
23 Derby Derby 12 7
24 Preston Preston 12 5
Lineups
Bolton Bolton 4-2-3-1
31 G. Bazunu G. Bazunu G 6.44
25 M. Conway M. Conway D 6.61
6 B. Davies B. Davies 82' D 6.66
18 E. Toal E. Toal D 6.71
22 Gaizka Larrazabal Gaizka Larrazabal 1 👟 D 6.81
21 E. Erhahon E. Erhahon 45' M 6.53
8 J. Sheehan J. Sheehan M 7.20
11 T. Gale T. Gale 56' M 6.40
20 Ruben Rodrigues Ruben Rodrigues 63' M 6.98
7 K. Dong K. Dong 56' M 5.81
10 S. Dalby S. Dalby F 6.15
Bench
14 A. Famewo A. Famewo D 0.00
17 A. Ito A. Ito 45' M 6.27
1 J. Bonham J. Bonham G 0.00
26 J. Nelson J. Nelson 34' F 6.87
5 L. Brunt L. Brunt D 0.00
39 R. Hardie R. Hardie 27' F 6.45
16 S. Iling-Junior S. Iling-Junior 34' F 6.59
9 T. Bair T. Bair 1 ⚽ 8' F 7.51
4 X. Simons X. Simons M 0.00
Stoke City Stoke City 3-4-3
1 V. Johansson V. Johansson G 6.55
5 L. Graham L. Graham D 6.96
40 M. Talovierov M. Talovierov 20' D 5.70
16 B. Wilmot B. Wilmot 1 ⚽ D 7.83
17 E. Bocat E. Bocat M 6.69
8 E. Galbraith E. Galbraith 1 👟 M 7.22
27 El Hadji Djibril Soumaré El Hadji Djibril Soumaré 69' M 6.31
2 B. Johnson B. Johnson M 6.45
7 J. McGlynn J. McGlynn 1 👟 69' F 7.23
11 L. Cissé L. Cissé 1 ⚽ 69' F 7.57
13 J. Devenny J. Devenny 45' F 6.18
Bench
10 Bae Jun-Ho Bae Jun-Ho M 0.00
18 B. Lawal B. Lawal 21' D 6.42
4 B. Pearson B. Pearson M 0.00
15 G. Hirst G. Hirst 21' F 6.28
24 J. Griffiths J. Griffiths G 0.00
22 J. Tchamadeu J. Tchamadeu 21' D 6.60
21 L. Bombino L. Bombino 45' D 6.57
42 M. Manhoef M. Manhoef F 0.00
9 R. Boženík R. Boženík F 0.00
Best on the pitch
B. Wilmot
B. Wilmot
D · Stoke
7.83
1 ⚽
2 shots · 24 pass
L. Cissé
L. Cissé
F · Stoke
7.57
1 ⚽
2 shots · 11 pass
T. Bair
T. Bair
F · Bolton
7.51
1 ⚽
2 shots · 1 pass
J. McGlynn
J. McGlynn
F · Stoke
7.23
1 👟
1 shots · 26 pass
E. Galbraith
E. Galbraith
M · Stoke
7.22
1 👟
2 shots · 46 pass
J. Sheehan
J. Sheehan
M · Bolton
7.20
3 shots · 97 pass
Bolton Bolton — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G. Bazunu G 90 6.44 — — 0 20 19% 0 — —
M. Conway D 90 6.61 — — 0 68 66% 3 1 —
B. Davies D 82 6.66 — — 0 62 56% 0 — —
E. Toal D 90 6.71 — — 0 64 64% 1 — —
Gaizka Larrazabal D 90 6.81 — 1 4 69 59% 0 — —
E. Erhahon M 45 6.53 — — 0 31 29% 1 — —
J. Sheehan M 90 7.20 — — 3 97 91% 3 — —
T. Gale M 56 6.40 — — 4 33 31% 1 — —
Ruben Rodrigues M 63 6.98 — — 0 26 20% 3 — —
K. Dong M 56 5.81 — — 2 15 11% 0 — —
S. Dalby F 90 6.15 — — 6 8 6% 0 — —
A. Ito M 45 6.27 — — 2 17 15% 0 — —
J. Nelson F 34 6.87 — — 3 11 10% 1 — —
R. Hardie F 27 6.45 — — 3 3 2% 1 — —
S. Iling-Junior F 34 6.59 — — 1 21 18% 1 — —
T. Bair F 8 7.51 1 — 2 1 1% 0 — —
Stoke City Stoke City — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
V. Johansson G 90 6.55 — — 0 36 16% 0 — —
L. Graham D 90 6.96 — — 0 18 15% 3 — —
M. Talovierov D 20 5.70 — — 0 3 3% 1 — 1
B. Wilmot D 90 7.83 1 — 2 24 18% 0 — —
E. Bocat M 90 6.69 — — 0 28 23% 1 — —
E. Galbraith M 90 7.22 — 1 2 46 32% 1 — —
El Hadji Djibril Soumaré M 69 6.31 — — 0 26 22% 2 — —
B. Johnson M 90 6.45 — — 0 19 15% 3 — —
J. McGlynn F 69 7.23 — 1 1 26 18% 2 1 —
L. Cissé F 69 7.57 1 — 2 11 6% 1 — —
J. Devenny F 45 6.18 — — 0 13 9% 0 — —
B. Lawal D 21 6.42 — — 1 4 0% 1 — —
G. Hirst F 21 6.28 — — 0 3 1% 0 — —
J. Tchamadeu D 21 6.60 — — 0 2 1% 0 — —
L. Bombino D 45 6.57 — — 1 5 3% 2 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Bolton vs Stoke City?
The final score was Bolton 1–2 Stoke City.
What did the model predict before Bolton vs Stoke City?
The model assigned 36% probability to a Bolton win, 29% to a draw, and 33% to an Stoke City win.