Bundesliga · Regular Season - 27 March 21, 2026 18:30 SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund

#2 · 9 pts

3 – 2

Final score

Hamburger SV

#18 · 0 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Borussia Dortmund

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Borussia Dortmund a 68% win probability (draw 18%, Hamburger SV 12%). The final result was Borussia Dortmund 3–2 Hamburger SV. In 2 previous meetings, Borussia Dortmund have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Hamburger SV.

Match statistics

8

Shots on target

4

6.20

Actual xG

1.47

68%

Possession

32%

11

Corners

3

Pre-match prediction

68.78%

Borussia ←

18.45%

X

12.77%

Hamburger

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Borussia Dortmund) 68.78% (high confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Borussia

2.29

6.20

+3.91

Hamburger

0.92

1.47

+0.55

Borussia Dortmund dominated by xG (6.20 vs 1.47). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	SC Freiburg	3	9
2	Borussia Dortmund	3	9
3	FC Augsburg	3	7
4	Bayern München	3	7
5	RB Leipzig	3	6
6	SV Elversberg	3	6
7	Bayer Leverkusen	3	4
8	FSV Mainz 05	3	4
9	Eintracht Frankfurt	3	4
10	Werder Bremen	3	4
11	FC Schalke 04	3	4
12	1. FC Köln	3	4
13	1899 Hoffenheim	3	3
14	VfB Stuttgart	3	3
15	SC Paderborn 07	3	1
16	Union Berlin	3	1
17	Borussia Mönchengladbach	3	0
18	Hamburger SV	3	0