Bundesliga · Regular Season - 27 March 21, 2026 18:30 Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund

#2 · 73 pts

3 – 2

Final score

Hamburger SV

#13 · 38 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Borussia Dortmund

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Borussia Dortmund a 68% win probability (draw 18%, Hamburger SV 12%). The final result was Borussia Dortmund 3–2 Hamburger SV. In 1 previous meetings, Borussia Dortmund have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Hamburger SV.

Match statistics

8

Shots on target

4

6.20

Actual xG

1.47

68%

Possession

32%

11

Corners

3

Pre-match prediction

68.78%

Borussia ←

18.45%

X

12.77%

Hamburger

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Borussia Dortmund) 68.78% (high confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Borussia

2.29

6.20

+3.91

Hamburger

0.92

1.47

+0.55

Borussia Dortmund dominated by xG (6.20 vs 1.47). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Bayern München	34	89
2	Borussia Dortmund	34	73
3	RB Leipzig	34	65
4	VfB Stuttgart	34	62
5	1899 Hoffenheim	34	61
6	Bayer Leverkusen	34	59
7	SC Freiburg	34	47
8	Eintracht Frankfurt	34	44
9	FC Augsburg	34	43
10	FSV Mainz 05	34	40
11	Union Berlin	34	39
12	Borussia Mönchengladbach	34	38
13	Hamburger SV	34	38
14	1. FC Köln	34	32
15	Werder Bremen	34	32
16	VfL Wolfsburg	34	29
17	1. FC Heidenheim	34	26
18	FC St. Pauli	34	26