Bundesliga · Regular Season - 31 April 26, 2026 17:30 SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund

#2 · 9 pts

4 – 0

Final score

SC Freiburg

#1 · 9 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Borussia Dortmund

M. Beier (ast. R. Bensebaini) 8'

S. Guirassy (ast. J. Brandt) 14'

R. Bensebaini (ast. J. Ryerson) 31'

F. Silva 87'

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Borussia Dortmund a 59% win probability (draw 19%, SC Freiburg 20%). The final result was Borussia Dortmund 4–0 SC Freiburg. In 1 previous meetings, Borussia Dortmund have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for SC Freiburg.

Match statistics

10

Total shots

7

5

Shots on target

4

3.59

Actual xG

0.74

4

Saves

1

61%

Possession

39%

5

Corners

0

17

Tackles

12

1

🟨 Yellow cards

0

Match Events

⚽M. Beier · ast. R. Bensebaini

8'

⚽S. Guirassy · ast. J. Brandt

14'

⚽R. Bensebaini · ast. J. Ryerson

31'

55'

J. Bellingham

65'

67'

J. Beste / V. Grifo ↕

67'

M. Philipp / I. Matanovic ↕

↕ S. Inacio / D. Svensson

74'

75'

C. Irie / D. Scherhant ↕

75'

A. Jung / P. Lienhart ↕

↕ J. Brandt / C. Chukwuemeka

84'

↕ S. Guirassy / F. Silva

84'

84'

R. Tarnutzer / N. Hofler ↕

⚽F. Silva

87'

↕ J. Bellingham / S. Ozcan

88'

↕ M. Beier / M. Albert

89'

Pre-match prediction

59.62%

Borussia ←

19.91%

X

20.47%

SC

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Borussia Dortmund) 59.62% (medium confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Borussia

2.26

3.59

+1.33

SC

1.35

0.74

-0.61

Borussia Dortmund dominated by xG (3.59 vs 0.74). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	SC Freiburg	3	9
2	Borussia Dortmund	3	9
3	FC Augsburg	3	7
4	SV Elversberg	2	6
5	Bayern München	2	4
6	Bayer Leverkusen	3	4
7	FSV Mainz 05	3	4
8	Eintracht Frankfurt	3	4
9	FC Schalke 04	3	4
10	RB Leipzig	2	3
11	1899 Hoffenheim	3	3
12	Werder Bremen	2	3
13	VfB Stuttgart	3	3
14	1. FC Köln	2	3
15	SC Paderborn 07	3	1
16	Union Berlin	3	1
17	Hamburger SV	2	0
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	3	0

Lineups

Borussia Dortmund 3-4-2-1

1 G. Kobel G 8.00

5 R. Bensebaïni 1 ⚽ 1 👟 D 9.20

4 N. Schlotterbeck D 7.90

3

D 7.70

14 M. Beier 1 ⚽ 89' M 8.20

7 J. Bellingham 88' M 6.90

20 M. Sabitzer M 7.30

26 J. Ryerson 1 👟 M 7.90

40 S. Inacio 74' F 7.20

10 J. Brandt 1 👟 84' F 7.70

9 S. Guirassy 1 ⚽ 84' F 6.60

Bench

17 C. Chukwuemeka 11' M 6.70

24 D. Svensson 21' D 6.70

21 Fábio Silva 1 ⚽ 11' F 7.50

39 F. Mané D

49 L. Reggiani D

SC Freiburg 4-2-3-1

1 N. Atubolu G 5.20

30 C. Günter D 5.30

3 P. Lienhart 75' D 6.20

43 I. Ogbus D 6.70

17 L. Kübler D 6.30

27 Nicolas Höfler 84' M 6.20

8 M. Eggestein M 6.30

32 V. Grifo 67' M 6.70

9 L. Höler M 6.30

7 D. Scherhant 75' M 6.20

31 I. Matanović 67' F 6.60

Bench

22 Cyriaque Kalou Irié 20' F 6.60

19 J. Beste 28' D 6.20

29 P. Treu D

Best on the pitch

R. Bensebaïni

D · Borussia

9.20

1 ⚽ 1 👟

1 shots · 64 pass

M. Beier

M · Borussia

8.20

1 ⚽

1 shots · 33 pass

G. Kobel

G · Borussia

8.00

· 43 pass

N. Schlotterbeck

D · Borussia

7.90

· 72 pass

J. Ryerson

M · Borussia

7.90

1 👟

1 shots · 36 pass

D · Borussia

7.70

· 81 pass

Borussia Dortmund — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
G. Kobel	G	95	8.00	—	—	—	43	33%	—	—	—
R. Bensebaïni	D	95	9.20	1	1	1	64	57%	4	—	—
N. Schlotterbeck	D	95	7.90	—	—	—	72	65%	1	—	—
	D	95	7.70	—	—	—	81	71%	4	—	—
M. Beier	M	89	8.20	1	—	1	33	26%	1	—	—
J. Bellingham	M	88	6.90	—	—	1	49	47%	2	1	—
M. Sabitzer	M	95	7.30	—	—	—	52	45%	4	—	—
J. Ryerson	M	95	7.90	—	1	1	36	31%	1	—	—
S. Inacio	F	74	7.20	—	—	1	14	13%	—	—	—
J. Brandt	F	84	7.70	—	1	2	50	42%	—	—	—
S. Guirassy	F	84	6.60	1	—	2	24	18%	—	—	—
C. Chukwuemeka	M	11	6.70	—	—	—	4	3%	—	—	—
D. Svensson	D	21	6.70	—	—	—	9	5%	—	—	—
Fábio Silva	F	11	7.50	1	—	1	5	3%	—	—	—

SC Freiburg — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
N. Atubolu	G	95	5.20	—	—	—	46	32%	—	—	—
C. Günter	D	95	5.30	—	—	—	31	22%	—	—	—
P. Lienhart	D	75	6.20	—	—	—	39	33%	1	—	—
I. Ogbus	D	95	6.70	—	—	—	38	36%	1	—	—
L. Kübler	D	95	6.30	—	—	—	36	29%	1	—	—
Nicolas Höfler	M	84	6.20	—	—	2	23	20%	1	—	—
M. Eggestein	M	95	6.30	—	—	—	40	31%	2	—	—
V. Grifo	M	67	6.70	—	—	—	23	20%	—	—	—
L. Höler	M	95	6.30	—	—	2	22	13%	3	—	—
D. Scherhant	M	75	6.20	—	—	1	9	6%	2	—	—
I. Matanović	F	67	6.60	—	—	—	14	10%	1	—	—
Cyriaque Kalou Irié	F	20	6.60	—	—	1	3	2%	—	—	—
J. Beste	D	28	6.20	—	—	1	10	8%	—	—	—