Bundesliga · Regular Season - 31 April 26, 2026 19:30

Borussia Dortmund

#2 · 70 pts

4 – 0

Final score

SC Freiburg

#7 · 44 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Borussia Dortmund

M. Beier (ast. R. Bensebaini) 8'

S. Guirassy (ast. J. Brandt) 14'

R. Bensebaini (ast. J. Ryerson) 31'

F. Silva 87'

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Borussia Dortmund a 59% win probability (draw 19%, SC Freiburg 20%). The final result was Borussia Dortmund 4–0 SC Freiburg. In 1 previous meetings, Borussia Dortmund have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for SC Freiburg.

Match statistics

10

Total shots

7

5

Shots on target

4

3.59

Actual xG

0.74

4

Saves

1

61%

Possession

39%

5

Corners

0

17

Tackles

12

1

🟨 Yellow cards

0

Match Events

⚽M. Beier · ast. R. Bensebaini

8'

⚽S. Guirassy · ast. J. Brandt

14'

⚽R. Bensebaini · ast. J. Ryerson

31'

55'

J. Bellingham

65'

67'

J. Beste / V. Grifo ↕

67'

M. Philipp / I. Matanovic ↕

↕ S. Inacio / D. Svensson

74'

75'

C. Irie / D. Scherhant ↕

75'

A. Jung / P. Lienhart ↕

↕ J. Brandt / C. Chukwuemeka

84'

↕ S. Guirassy / F. Silva

84'

84'

R. Tarnutzer / N. Hofler ↕

⚽F. Silva

87'

↕ J. Bellingham / S. Ozcan

88'

↕ M. Beier / M. Albert

89'

Pre-match prediction

59.62%

Borussia ←

19.91%

X

20.47%

SC

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Borussia Dortmund) 59.62% (medium confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Borussia

2.26

3.59

+1.33

SC

1.35

0.74

-0.61

Borussia Dortmund dominated by xG (3.59 vs 0.74). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Bayern München	33	86
2	Borussia Dortmund	33	70
3	RB Leipzig	33	65
4	VfB Stuttgart	33	61
5	1899 Hoffenheim	33	61
6	Bayer Leverkusen	33	58
7	SC Freiburg	33	44
8	Eintracht Frankfurt	33	43
9	FC Augsburg	33	43
10	FSV Mainz 05	33	37
11	Hamburger SV	33	37
12	Union Berlin	33	36
13	Borussia Mönchengladbach	33	35
14	1. FC Köln	33	32
15	Werder Bremen	33	32
16	VfL Wolfsburg	33	26
17	1. FC Heidenheim	33	26
18	FC St. Pauli	33	26

Lineups

Borussia Dortmund 3-4-2-1

1

G. Kobel G 8.00

5

Ramy Bensebaini 1 ⚽ 1 👟 D 9.20

4

Nico Schlotterbeck D 7.90

3

D 7.70

14

Maximilian Beier 1 ⚽ 89' M 8.20

7

J. Bellingham 88' M 6.90

20 M. Sabitzer M 7.30

26 J. Ryerson 1 👟 M 7.90

40

S. Inacio 74' F 7.20

10

J. Brandt 1 👟 84' F 7.70

9

Serhou Guirassy 1 ⚽ 84' F 6.60

Bench

17

Carney Chukwuemeka 11' M 6.70

24

D. Svensson 21' D 6.70

21

Fábio Silva 1 ⚽ 11' F 7.50

39

F. Mane D

49

L. Reggiani D

SC Freiburg 4-2-3-1

1 Noah Atubolu G 5.20

30 Christian Günter D 5.30

3 Philipp Lienhart 75' D 6.20

43 Bruno Ogbus D 6.70

17 Lukas Kübler D 6.30

27 Nicolas Höfler 84' M 6.20

8 Maximilian Eggestein M 6.30

32 V. Grifo 67' M 6.70

9 L. Höler M 6.30

7 Derry Scherhant 75' M 6.20

31 I. Matanović 67' F 6.60

Bench

22 Cyriaque Irié 20' F 6.60

19 J. Beste 28' D 6.20

29 Philipp Treu D

Best on the pitch

Ramy Bensebaini

D · Borussia

9.20

1 ⚽ 1 👟

1 shots · 64 pass

Maximilian Beier

M · Borussia

8.20

1 ⚽

1 shots · 33 pass

G. Kobel

G · Borussia

8.00

· 43 pass

Nico Schlotterbeck

D · Borussia

7.90

· 72 pass

J. Ryerson

M · Borussia

7.90

1 👟

1 shots · 36 pass

D · Borussia

7.70

· 81 pass

Borussia Dortmund — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
G. Kobel	G	95	8.00	—	—	—	43	33%	—	—	—
Ramy Bensebaini	D	95	9.20	1	1	1	64	57%	4	—	—
Nico Schlotterbeck	D	95	7.90	—	—	—	72	65%	1	—	—
	D	95	7.70	—	—	—	81	71%	4	—	—
Maximilian Beier	M	89	8.20	1	—	1	33	26%	1	—	—
J. Bellingham	M	88	6.90	—	—	1	49	47%	2	1	—
M. Sabitzer	M	95	7.30	—	—	—	52	45%	4	—	—
J. Ryerson	M	95	7.90	—	1	1	36	31%	1	—	—
S. Inacio	F	74	7.20	—	—	1	14	13%	—	—	—
J. Brandt	F	84	7.70	—	1	2	50	42%	—	—	—
Serhou Guirassy	F	84	6.60	1	—	2	24	18%	—	—	—
Carney Chukwuemeka	M	11	6.70	—	—	—	4	3%	—	—	—
D. Svensson	D	21	6.70	—	—	—	9	5%	—	—	—
Fábio Silva	F	11	7.50	1	—	1	5	3%	—	—	—

SC Freiburg — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Noah Atubolu	G	95	5.20	—	—	—	46	32%	—	—	—
Christian Günter	D	95	5.30	—	—	—	31	22%	—	—	—
Philipp Lienhart	D	75	6.20	—	—	—	39	33%	1	—	—
Bruno Ogbus	D	95	6.70	—	—	—	38	36%	1	—	—
Lukas Kübler	D	95	6.30	—	—	—	36	29%	1	—	—
Nicolas Höfler	M	84	6.20	—	—	2	23	20%	1	—	—
Maximilian Eggestein	M	95	6.30	—	—	—	40	31%	2	—	—
V. Grifo	M	67	6.70	—	—	—	23	20%	—	—	—
L. Höler	M	95	6.30	—	—	2	22	13%	3	—	—
Derry Scherhant	M	75	6.20	—	—	1	9	6%	2	—	—
I. Matanović	F	67	6.60	—	—	—	14	10%	1	—	—
Cyriaque Irié	F	20	6.60	—	—	1	3	2%	—	—	—
J. Beste	D	28	6.20	—	—	1	10	8%	—	—	—