✓Model correct — prediction Borussia Dortmund
Serhou Guirassy
(ast. Julian Ryerson)
6'
Carney Chukwuemeka
(ast. Jobe Bellingham)
17'
Marcel Sabitzer
90'+3
(pen.)
65'
Niclas Füllkrug
68'
(ast. Youri Regeer)
Niclas Füllkrug
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Borussia Dortmund a 68% win probability (draw 16%, Werder Bremen 15%). The final result was Borussia Dortmund 3–2 Werder Bremen. In 3 previous meetings, Borussia Dortmund have won 2 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Werder Bremen.
Match statistics
12
Total shots
12
4
Shots on target
6
1.44
Actual xG
1.59
4
Saves
1
56%
Possession
44%
4
Corners
3
14
Tackles
12
2
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
⚽Serhou Guirassy
· ast. Julian Ryerson
6'
⚽Carney Chukwuemeka
· ast. Jobe Bellingham
17'
24'
Amos Pieper
Joey Veerman
49'
57'
Arthur Augusto de Matos Soares
59'
Senne Lynen
/
Marco Grüll
59'
Mitchell Weiser
/
Eren Dinkci
59'
Niclas Füllkrug
/
Cédric Itten
59'
Ludovit Reis
/
Dariusz Stalmach
Julian Ryerson
64'
65'
(pen.)
Niclas Füllkrug⚽
68'
ast. Youri Regeer ·
Niclas Füllkrug⚽
Joey Veerman
/ Marcel Sabitzer
71'
Carney Chukwuemeka
/ Ethan Nwaneri
71'
Julian Ryerson
/ Daniel Svensson
71'
Serhou Guirassy
/ Fábio Silva
84'
⚽Marcel Sabitzer
90'+3
Pre-match prediction
68.09%
Borussia ←
16.13%
X
15.78%
Werder
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Borussia Dortmund)
68.09%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
4.39
1.44
-2.95
1.86
1.59
-0.27
xG dominance was balanced (1.44 – 1.59).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
G. Kobel
G
G. Kobel
G
4
N. Schlotterbeck
D
N. Schlotterbeck
D
3
W. Anton
D
W. Anton
D
22
Kouakou Joane Gadou
D
Kouakou Joane Gadou
D
14
M. Beier
M
M. Beier
M
8
F. Nmecha
M
F. Nmecha
M
25
J. Veerman
71'
M
J. Veerman
71'
M
26
J. Ryerson
1 👟
71'
M
J. Ryerson
1 👟
71'
M
17
C. Chukwuemeka
1 ⚽
71'
M
C. Chukwuemeka
1 ⚽
71'
M
7
J. Bellingham
1 👟
M
J. Bellingham
1 👟
M
9
S. Guirassy
1 ⚽
84'
F
S. Guirassy
1 ⚽
84'
F
Bench
24
D. Svensson
19'
D
D. Svensson
19'
D
18
E. Nwaneri
19'
M
E. Nwaneri
19'
M
21
Fábio Silva
6'
F
Fábio Silva
6'
F
39
F. Mané
D
F. Mané
D
49
L. Reggiani
D
L. Reggiani
D
41
M. Albert
F
M. Albert
F
20
M. Sabitzer
1 ⚽
19'
M
M. Sabitzer
1 ⚽
19'
M
30
P. Drewes
G
P. Drewes
G
40
S. Inacio
F
S. Inacio
F
1
K. Hein
G
K. Hein
G
33
Mick Schmetgens
D
Mick Schmetgens
D
32
M. Friedl
D
M. Friedl
D
5
A. Pieper
D
A. Pieper
D
13
Arthur
D
Arthur
D
44
Y. Regeer
1 👟
M
Y. Regeer
1 👟
M
23
Dariusz Stalmach
59'
M
Dariusz Stalmach
59'
M
17
M. Grüll
59'
M
M. Grüll
59'
M
20
Chuky San José
M
Chuky San José
M
18
E. Dinkçi
59'
M
E. Dinkçi
59'
M
26
C. Itten
59'
F
C. Itten
59'
F
Bench
30
A. Schlager
G
A. Schlager
G
34
D. Soylu
M
D. Soylu
M
15
L. Reis
31'
M
L. Reis
31'
M
36
Mats Ole Heitmann
D
Mats Ole Heitmann
D
8
M. Weiser
31'
D
M. Weiser
31'
D
10
N. Füllkrug
2 ⚽
31'
F
N. Füllkrug
2 ⚽
31'
F
3
O. Wójcik
D
O. Wójcik
D
38
P. Erevbenagie
F
P. Erevbenagie
F
14
S. Lynen
31'
M
S. Lynen
31'
M
Best on the pitch
N. Füllkrug
F · Werder
8.20
2 ⚽
2 shots
· 11 pass
S. Guirassy
F · Borussia
8.03
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 34 pass
N. Schlotterbeck
D · Borussia
7.36
1 shots
· 99 pass
C. Chukwuemeka
M · Borussia
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 30 pass
Kouakou Joane Gadou
D · Borussia
7.29
· 73 pass
M. Grüll
M · Werder
7.20
3 shots
· 23 pass
Borussia Dortmund — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Kobel | G | 90 | 7.05 | — | — | 0 | 28 | 22% | 0 | — | — |
| N. Schlotterbeck | D | 90 | 7.36 | — | — | 1 | 99 | 94% | 1 | — | — |
| W. Anton | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 92 | 84% | 5 | — | — |
| Kouakou Joane Gadou | D | 90 | 7.29 | — | — | 0 | 73 | 62% | 3 | — | — |
| M. Beier | M | 90 | 6.19 | — | — | 1 | 43 | 35% | 2 | — | — |
| F. Nmecha | M | 90 | 6.27 | — | — | 2 | 52 | 38% | 0 | — | — |
| J. Veerman | M | 71 | 6.57 | — | — | 1 | 54 | 48% | 0 | 1 | — |
| J. Ryerson | M | 71 | 6.85 | — | 1 | 0 | 20 | 17% | 2 | 1 | — |
| C. Chukwuemeka | M | 71 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 30 | 24% | 0 | — | — |
| J. Bellingham | M | 90 | 7.01 | — | 1 | 1 | 50 | 43% | 1 | — | — |
| S. Guirassy | F | 84 | 8.03 | 1 | — | 2 | 34 | 27% | 0 | — | — |
| D. Svensson | D | 19 | 6.37 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 13% | 0 | — | — |
| E. Nwaneri | M | 19 | 6.04 | — | — | 0 | 11 | 10% | 0 | — | — |
| Fábio Silva | F | 6 | 6.47 | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | — | — |
| M. Sabitzer | M | 19 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 11 | 9% | 0 | — | — |
Werder Bremen — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Hein | G | 90 | 5.54 | — | — | 0 | 63 | 44% | 0 | — | — |
| Mick Schmetgens | D | 90 | 6.76 | — | — | 0 | 47 | 40% | 3 | — | — |
| M. Friedl | D | 90 | 6.17 | — | — | 0 | 57 | 53% | 0 | — | — |
| A. Pieper | D | 90 | 6.11 | — | — | 1 | 71 | 62% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Arthur | D | 90 | 5.62 | — | — | 0 | 51 | 41% | 0 | 1 | — |
| Y. Regeer | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | 1 | 2 | 36 | 32% | 1 | — | — |
| Dariusz Stalmach | M | 59 | 5.81 | — | — | 0 | 17 | 11% | 0 | — | — |
| M. Grüll | M | 59 | 7.20 | — | — | 3 | 23 | 21% | 0 | — | — |
| Chuky San José | M | 90 | 6.12 | — | — | 0 | 35 | 29% | 1 | — | — |
| E. Dinkçi | M | 59 | 6.05 | — | — | 0 | 15 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| C. Itten | F | 59 | 6.52 | — | — | 3 | 17 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Reis | M | 31 | 5.86 | — | — | 0 | 13 | 12% | 2 | — | — |
| M. Weiser | D | 31 | 6.26 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 8% | 0 | — | — |
| N. Füllkrug | F | 31 | 8.20 | 2 | — | 2 | 11 | 7% | 0 | — | — |
| S. Lynen | M | 31 | 5.86 | — | — | 0 | 14 | 12% | 0 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?
The final score was Borussia Dortmund 3–2 Werder Bremen.
What did the model predict before Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?
The model assigned 68% probability to a Borussia Dortmund win, 16% to a draw, and 15% to an Werder Bremen win.