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Model wrong — prediction Borussia Mönchengladbach, result Draw
W. Mohya (ast. J. Castrop) 16'
F. Honorat (ast. S. Machino) 74'
26' (ast. N. Dorsch) P. Mainka
63' M. Busch
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Borussia Mönchengladbach a 58% win probability (draw 22%, 1. FC Heidenheim 18%). The final result was Borussia Mönchengladbach 2–2 1. FC Heidenheim. In 1 previous meetings, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for 1. FC Heidenheim.

Match statistics
11
Total shots
11
7
Shots on target
7
0.73
Actual xG
0.94
4
Saves
5
52%
Possession
48%
2
Corners
3
13
Tackles
18
4
🟨 Yellow cards
0
Match Events
W. Mohya · ast. J. Castrop
16'
26'
ast. N. Dorsch · P. Mainka
Jens Castrop
42'
Yannik Engelhardt
44'
49'
L. Stergiou / H. Behrens
62'
M. Kaufmann / B. Zivzivadze
62'
A. Ibrahimovic / M. Honsak
Y. Engelhardt / K. Stoger
63'
W. Mohya / F. Neuhaus
63'
63'
M. Busch
67'
B. Gimber /
R. Reitz / H. Bolin
70'
J. Scally / H. Tabakovic
70'
F. Honorat · ast. S. Machino
74'
Nico Elvedi
80'
S. Machino / G. Reyna
85'
Kevin Diks
90'+4
Pre-match prediction
58.28%
Borussia
22.76%
X ←
18.96%
1.
✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 22.76% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Borussia
1.85
0.73
-1.12
1.
0.96
0.94
-0.02
xG dominance was balanced (0.73 – 0.94). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 3 9
2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 3 9
3 FC Augsburg FC Augsburg 3 7
4 Bayern München Bayern München 3 7
5 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 3 6
6 SV Elversberg SV Elversberg 3 6
7 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 3 4
8 FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 3 4
9 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 3 4
10 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 3 4
11 FC Schalke 04 FC Schalke 04 3 4
12 1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 3 4
13 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 3 3
14 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 3 3
15 SC Paderborn 07 SC Paderborn 07 3 1
16 Union Berlin Union Berlin 3 1
17 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach 3 0
18 Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 3 0
Lineups
33 M. Nicolas M. Nicolas G 8.20
4 K. Diks K. Diks D 6.90
30 N. Elvedi N. Elvedi D 7.00
16 P. Sander P. Sander D 6.90
17 J. Castrop J. Castrop 1 👟 M 6.90
6 Y. Engelhardt Y. Engelhardt 63' M 6.50
27 R. Reitz R. Reitz 70' M 7.50
29 J. Scally J. Scally 70' M 6.30
36
W. Mohya 1 ⚽ 63' F 7.30
9 F. Honorat F. Honorat 1 ⚽ F 7.70
18 S. Machino S. Machino 1 👟 85' F 6.30
Bench
2 F. Chiarodia F. Chiarodia D
13 G. Reyna G. Reyna 10' M 7.20
38 H. Bolin H. Bolin 20' M 6.30
15 H. Tabaković H. Tabaković 20' F 6.20
7 K. Stöger K. Stöger 27' M 7.50
26 L. Ullrich L. Ullrich D
41 D. Ramaj D. Ramaj G 6.70
26 Hennes Behrens Hennes Behrens 49' D 6.90
19
D 6.90
6 P. Mainka P. Mainka 1 ⚽ D 7.90
2 M. Busch M. Busch 1 ⚽ D 7.30
17 M. Honsak M. Honsak 62' M 6.30
30 N. Dorsch N. Dorsch 1 👟 M 7.30
16 J. Niehues J. Niehues M 6.70
8 E. Dinkçi E. Dinkçi M 6.70
11 B. Zivzivadze B. Zivzivadze 62' F 6.30
18 M. Pieringer M. Pieringer F 7.20
Bench
22 A. Ibrahimović A. Ibrahimović 28' M 6.70
9 Stefan Schimmer Stefan Schimmer F
Best on the pitch
M. Nicolas
M. Nicolas
G · Borussia
8.20
· 39 pass
P. Mainka
P. Mainka
D · 1.
7.90
1 ⚽
3 shots · 58 pass
F. Honorat
F. Honorat
F · Borussia
7.70
1 ⚽
2 shots · 31 pass
K. Stöger
K. Stöger
M · Borussia
7.50
1 shots · 31 pass
R. Reitz
R. Reitz
M · Borussia
7.50
1 shots · 47 pass
N. Dorsch
N. Dorsch
M · 1.
7.30
1 👟
· 66 pass
Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating 👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
M. Nicolas G 90 8.20 39 34%
K. Diks D 90 6.90 1 60 56% 1
N. Elvedi D 90 7.00 60 55% 2 1
P. Sander D 90 6.90 56 45% 1
J. Castrop M 90 6.90 1 1 30 22% 2 1
Y. Engelhardt M 63 6.50 37 26% 1 1
R. Reitz M 70 7.50 1 47 42% 2
J. Scally M 70 6.30 22 17% 2
W. Mohya F 63 7.30 1 2 20 16%
F. Honorat F 90 7.70 1 2 31 22% 1
S. Machino F 85 6.30 1 31 24%
G. Reyna M 10 7.20 15 15%
H. Bolin M 20 6.30 1 11 8%
H. Tabaković F 20 6.20 2 9 5%
K. Stöger M 27 7.50 1 31 26% 2
1. FC Heidenheim 1. FC Heidenheim — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating 👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
D. Ramaj G 90 6.70 60 32%
Hennes Behrens D 49 6.90 15 12% 3
D 90 6.90 59 51%
P. Mainka D 90 7.90 1 3 58 54%
M. Busch D 90 7.30 1 1 45 42% 2
M. Honsak M 62 6.30 1 21 15% 2
N. Dorsch M 90 7.30 1 66 58% 4
J. Niehues M 90 6.70 1 41 38% 3
E. Dinkçi M 90 6.70 3 28 20% 3
B. Zivzivadze F 62 6.30 1 13 9% 1
M. Pieringer F 90 7.20 1 20 16%
A. Ibrahimović M 28 6.70 13 12%
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
The final score was Borussia Mönchengladbach 2–2 1. FC Heidenheim.
What did the model predict before Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
The model assigned 58% probability to a Borussia Mönchengladbach win, 22% to a draw, and 18% to an 1. FC Heidenheim win.