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Model wrong — prediction Borussia Mönchengladbach, result Draw
W. Mohya (ast. J. Castrop) 16'
F. Honorat (ast. S. Machino) 74'
26' (ast. N. Dorsch) P. Mainka
63' M. Busch
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Borussia Mönchengladbach a 58% win probability (draw 22%, 1. FC Heidenheim 18%). The final result was Borussia Mönchengladbach 2–2 1. FC Heidenheim. In 1 previous meetings, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for 1. FC Heidenheim.

Match statistics
11
Total shots
11
7
Shots on target
7
0.73
Actual xG
0.94
4
Saves
5
52%
Possession
48%
2
Corners
3
13
Tackles
18
4
🟨 Yellow cards
0
Match Events
W. Mohya · ast. J. Castrop
16'
26'
ast. N. Dorsch · P. Mainka
Jens Castrop
42'
Yannik Engelhardt
44'
49'
L. Stergiou / H. Behrens
62'
M. Kaufmann / B. Zivzivadze
62'
A. Ibrahimovic / M. Honsak
Y. Engelhardt / K. Stoger
63'
W. Mohya / F. Neuhaus
63'
63'
M. Busch
67'
B. Gimber /
R. Reitz / H. Bolin
70'
J. Scally / H. Tabakovic
70'
F. Honorat · ast. S. Machino
74'
Nico Elvedi
80'
S. Machino / G. Reyna
85'
Kevin Diks
90'+4
Pre-match prediction
58.28%
Borussia
22.76%
X ←
18.96%
1.
✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 22.76% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Borussia
1.85
0.73
-1.12
1.
0.96
0.94
-0.02
xG dominance was balanced (0.73 – 0.94). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Bayern München Bayern München 0 0
2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 0 0
3 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 0 0
4 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 0 0
5 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 0 0
6 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 0 0
7 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 0 0
8 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 0 0
9 FC Augsburg FC Augsburg 0 0
10 FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 0 0
11 Union Berlin Union Berlin 0 0
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach 0 0
13 Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 0 0
14 1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 0 0
15 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 0 0
16 FC Schalke 04 FC Schalke 04 0 0
17 SV Elversberg SV Elversberg 0 0
18 SC Paderborn 07 SC Paderborn 07 0 0
Lineups
33 Moritz Nicolas Moritz Nicolas G 8.20
4
Kevin Diks D 6.90
30 Nico Elvedi Nico Elvedi D 7.00
16 Philipp Sander Philipp Sander D 6.90
17 J. Castrop J. Castrop 1 👟 M 6.90
6 Yannick Engelhardt Yannick Engelhardt 63' M 6.50
27 R. Reitz R. Reitz 70' M 7.50
29 Joe Scally Joe Scally 70' M 6.30
36
W. Mohya 1 ⚽ 63' F 7.30
9 F. Honorat F. Honorat 1 ⚽ F 7.70
18 Shuto Machino Shuto Machino 1 👟 85' F 6.30
Bench
2 Fabio Chiarodia Fabio Chiarodia D
13 Giovanni Reyna Giovanni Reyna 10' M 7.20
15 Haris Tabaković Haris Tabaković 20' F 6.20
38 Hugo Bolin Hugo Bolin 20' M 6.30
7 K. Stöger K. Stöger 27' M 7.50
26 Lukas Ullrich Lukas Ullrich D
41 Diant Ramaj Diant Ramaj G 6.70
26 Hennes Behrens Hennes Behrens 49' D 6.90
19
D 6.90
6 Patrick Mainka Patrick Mainka 1 ⚽ D 7.90
2 Marnon Busch Marnon Busch 1 ⚽ D 7.30
17 Mathias Honsak Mathias Honsak 62' M 6.30
30 Niklas Dorsch Niklas Dorsch 1 👟 M 7.30
16 Julian Niehues Julian Niehues M 6.70
8 Eren Dinkçi Eren Dinkçi M 6.70
11 B. Zivzivadze B. Zivzivadze 62' F 6.30
18 Marvin Pieringer Marvin Pieringer F 7.20
Bench
22 A. Ibrahimović A. Ibrahimović 28' M 6.70
9 Stefan Schimmer Stefan Schimmer F
Best on the pitch
Moritz Nicolas
Moritz Nicolas
G · Borussia
8.20
· 39 pass
Patrick Mainka
Patrick Mainka
D · 1.
7.90
1 ⚽
3 shots · 58 pass
F. Honorat
F. Honorat
F · Borussia
7.70
1 ⚽
2 shots · 31 pass
K. Stöger
K. Stöger
M · Borussia
7.50
1 shots · 31 pass
R. Reitz
R. Reitz
M · Borussia
7.50
1 shots · 47 pass
Niklas Dorsch
Niklas Dorsch
M · 1.
7.30
1 👟
· 66 pass
Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating 👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Moritz Nicolas G 90 8.20 39 34%
Kevin Diks D 90 6.90 1 60 56% 1
Nico Elvedi D 90 7.00 60 55% 2 1
Philipp Sander D 90 6.90 56 45% 1
J. Castrop M 90 6.90 1 1 30 22% 2 1
Yannick Engelhardt M 63 6.50 37 26% 1 1
R. Reitz M 70 7.50 1 47 42% 2
Joe Scally M 70 6.30 22 17% 2
W. Mohya F 63 7.30 1 2 20 16%
F. Honorat F 90 7.70 1 2 31 22% 1
Shuto Machino F 85 6.30 1 31 24%
Giovanni Reyna M 10 7.20 15 15%
Haris Tabaković F 20 6.20 2 9 5%
Hugo Bolin M 20 6.30 1 11 8%
K. Stöger M 27 7.50 1 31 26% 2
1. FC Heidenheim 1. FC Heidenheim — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating 👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Diant Ramaj G 90 6.70 60 32%
Hennes Behrens D 49 6.90 15 12% 3
D 90 6.90 59 51%
Patrick Mainka D 90 7.90 1 3 58 54%
Marnon Busch D 90 7.30 1 1 45 42% 2
Mathias Honsak M 62 6.30 1 21 15% 2
Niklas Dorsch M 90 7.30 1 66 58% 4
Julian Niehues M 90 6.70 1 41 38% 3
Eren Dinkçi M 90 6.70 3 28 20% 3
B. Zivzivadze F 62 6.30 1 13 9% 1
Marvin Pieringer F 90 7.20 1 20 16%
A. Ibrahimović M 28 6.70 13 12%
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
The final score was Borussia Mönchengladbach 2–2 1. FC Heidenheim.
What did the model predict before Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
The model assigned 58% probability to a Borussia Mönchengladbach win, 22% to a draw, and 18% to an 1. FC Heidenheim win.