Brasileirão Série B
· Regular Season - 7
May 02, 2026 21:00
Everton Morelli
(ast. Patrick Brey)
42'
58'
Victor Andrade
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Botafogo SP a 39% win probability (draw 30%, Nautico Recife 29%). The final result was Botafogo SP 1–1 Nautico Recife.
Match statistics
9
Total shots
8
7
Shots on target
3
1.30
Actual xG
0.98
2
Saves
7
47%
Possession
53%
11
Corners
2
15
Tackles
15
2
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
⚽Everton Morelli
· ast. Patrick Brey
42'
46'
Victor Andrade
/
Junior Todinho
46'
Reginaldo
/
Matheus Ribeiro
Wallace
/ Guilherme Mariano
46'
Guilherme Mariano
50'
58'
Victor Andrade⚽
Luizao
/ Guilherme Queiroz
64'
Matheus Sales
/ Rafael Gava
64'
66'
Luiz Felipe
Kelvin
/ Jefferson Nem
74'
79'
Samuel Felix
/
Wenderson
79'
Felipe Saraiva
/
Derek
Ze Hugo
/ Marcio Maranhao
80'
87'
Ramon
/
Dodo
Marcio Maranhao
88'
90'+2
Victor Andrade
Pre-match prediction
39.47%
Botafogo
30.9%
X ←
29.63%
Nautico
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
30.9%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.46
1.30
-0.16
0.91
0.98
+0.07
Botafogo SP dominated by xG (1.30 vs 0.98).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
12
G
6
Patrick Brey
1 👟
D
Patrick Brey
1 👟
D
13
Wallace
45'
D
Wallace
45'
D
4
D
22
D
5
Leandro Maciel
M
Leandro Maciel
M
16
Matheus Sales
64'
M
Matheus Sales
64'
M
7
Kelvin
74'
M
Kelvin
74'
M
8
Everton Morelli
1 ⚽
M
Everton Morelli
1 ⚽
M
30
Zé Hugo
80'
M
Zé Hugo
80'
M
21
Luizão
64'
F
Luizão
64'
F
Bench
15
Guilherme Mariano
50'
D
Guilherme Mariano
50'
D
11
Jefferson Nem
21'
F
Jefferson Nem
21'
F
19
Márcio Carlos Maranhão
15'
F
Márcio Carlos Maranhão
15'
F
28
Marco Antonio Batistussi
M
Marco Antonio Batistussi
M
31
Pedrinho
D
Pedrinho
D
10
Rafael Gava
31'
M
Rafael Gava
31'
M
29
Thiago Moraes
M
Thiago Moraes
M
1
G
23
D
3
D
34
D
14
Matheus Ribeiro
45'
D
Matheus Ribeiro
45'
D
8
Wenderson
79'
M
Wenderson
79'
M
27
Luiz Felipe
M
Luiz Felipe
M
7
Vinícius
M
Vinícius
M
10
Dodozinho
87'
M
Dodozinho
87'
M
29
Todinho
45'
M
Todinho
45'
M
72
Derek Freitas
79'
F
Derek Freitas
79'
F
Bench
98
Felipe Saraiva
16'
F
Felipe Saraiva
16'
F
41
Samuel
16'
M
Samuel
16'
M
11
Victor Andrade
1 ⚽
50'
F
Victor Andrade
1 ⚽
50'
F
Best on the pitch
G · Nautico
8.20
· 32 pass
Everton Morelli
M · Botafogo
8.00
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 22 pass
Patrick Brey
D · Botafogo
7.90
1 👟
1 shots
· 31 pass
Victor Andrade
F · Nautico
7.60
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 5 pass
D · Botafogo
7.00
· 28 pass
Dodozinho
M · Nautico
6.90
2 shots
· 24 pass
Botafogo SP — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 95 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 18 | 4% | — | — | — | |
| Patrick Brey | D | 95 | 7.90 | — | 1 | 1 | 31 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| Wallace | D | 45 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 12 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| D | 95 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 36 | 28% | — | — | — | |
| D | 95 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 28 | 24% | 4 | — | — | |
| Leandro Maciel | M | 95 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 42 | 30% | 2 | — | — |
| Matheus Sales | M | 64 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 11 | 9% | 2 | — | — |
| Kelvin | M | 74 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 13% | 2 | — | — |
| Everton Morelli | M | 95 | 8.00 | 1 | — | 2 | 22 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| Zé Hugo | M | 80 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 9 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| Luizão | F | 64 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 11 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Guilherme Mariano | D | 50 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 18 | 14% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Jefferson Nem | F | 21 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Márcio Carlos Maranhão | F | 15 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | 1 | — |
| Rafael Gava | M | 31 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 15 | 13% | — | — | — |
Nautico Recife — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 95 | 8.20 | — | — | — | 32 | 21% | — | — | — | |
| D | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 28 | 18% | 1 | — | — | |
| D | 95 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 42 | 34% | 1 | — | — | |
| D | 95 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 37 | 19% | — | — | — | |
| Matheus Ribeiro | D | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 17 | 12% | 3 | — | — |
| Wenderson | M | 79 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 32 | 30% | 1 | — | — |
| Luiz Felipe | M | 95 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 30 | 20% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Vinícius | M | 95 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 31 | 20% | — | — | — |
| Dodozinho | M | 87 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 24 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| Todinho | M | 45 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 10 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| Derek Freitas | F | 79 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 13 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| Felipe Saraiva | F | 16 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Samuel | M | 16 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 5 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
| Victor Andrade | F | 50 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 3 | 5 | 4% | 2 | 1 | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Botafogo SP vs Nautico Recife?
The final score was Botafogo SP 1–1 Nautico Recife.
What did the model predict before Botafogo SP vs Nautico Recife?
The model assigned 39% probability to a Botafogo SP win, 30% to a draw, and 29% to an Nautico Recife win.