Botafogo 3–1 Corinthians — pre-match prediction — Brasileirão Série A — May 17, 2026

← Brasileirão Série A

Brasileirão Série A · Regular Season - 16 May 17, 2026 21:00 Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro

Botafogo

#11 · 42 pts

3 – 1

Final score

Corinthians

#17 · 37 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Botafogo

Arthur Cabral (ast. L. M. Villalba Jaume) 7'

Arthur Cabral (ast. K. Barria) 32'

Arthur Cabral (ast. Kauan Toledo) 70'

11' (ast. J. Lingard) R. Garro

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Botafogo a 60% win probability (draw 21%, Corinthians 18%). The final result was Botafogo 3–1 Corinthians.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

0.82

Actual xG

1.11

Saves

35%

Possession

65%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

⚽Arthur Cabral · ast. L. M. Villalba Jaume

11'

ast. J. Lingard · R. Garro⚽

M. Ponte

20'

⚽Arthur Cabral · ast. K. Barria

32'

C. Medina

39'

45'+6

J. Lingard

↕ K. Barria / Kauan Toledo

46'

Kaio Cesar / J. Lingard ↕

63'

Andre / Raniele ↕

↕ M. Ponte / Vitinho

66'

⚽Arthur Cabral · ast. Kauan Toledo

70'

Arthur Cabral

71'

L. M. Villalba Jaume

73'

↕ L. M. Villalba Jaume / Edenilson

73'

76'

Allan / Breno Bidon ↕

77'

Pedro Raul / R. Garro ↕

77'

Dieguinho / A. Carrillo ↕

↕ C. Medina / G. Justino

80'

↕ A. Montoro / S. Rodriguez

80'

A. Barboza

81'

Alex Telles

90'+1

Pre-match prediction

60.2%

Botafogo ←

21.08%

18.73%

Corinthians

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Botafogo) 60.2% (high confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Botafogo

2.06

0.82

-1.24

Corinthians

0.80

1.11

+0.31

xG dominance was balanced (0.82 – 1.11). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Flamengo	34	76
2	Palmeiras	34	73
3	Cruzeiro	34	60
4	Fluminense	33	54
5	Atletico Paranaense	34	54
6	Bahia	34	53
7	Atletico-MG	34	50
8	RB Bragantino	34	47
9	Santos	34	47
10	Sao Paulo	34	44
11	Botafogo	34	42
12	Coritiba	34	42
13	Vasco DA Gama	33	41
14	Mirassol	34	40
15	Vitoria	33	38
16	Internacional	34	38
17	Corinthians	34	37
18	Gremio	34	37
19	Remo	34	29
20	Chapecoense-sc	33	21

Lineups

Botafogo 4-2-3-1

Neto G 6.70

Alex Telles D 6.50

A. Barboza D 6.70

Nahuel Ferraresi D 6.70

Mateo Ponte 66' D 6.90

Cristian Medina 80' M 7.30

Huguinho M 6.30

Álvaro Montoro 80' M 7.30

K. Barria 1 👟 45' M 6.50

Lucas Villalba 1 👟 73' M 6.60

Arthur Cabral 3 ⚽ F 9.60

Bench

Caio Roque D

Caio Valle M

Edenilson 17' M 6.70

Gabriel Justino 10' D 6.70

Jordan Barrera M

Kadu Santos D

Kauan Toledo 1 👟 45' M 6.20

Léo Linck G

Marçal D

Raul G

S. Rodríguez 10' M 6.70

Vitinho 24' D 6.60

Corinthians 4-2-3-1

Hugo Souza G 5.60

Matheus Bidu D 6.30

Gustavo Henrique D 6.30

André Ramalho D 6.20

Matheuzinho D 6.50

Raniele 63' M 6.70

André Carrillo 77' M 7.50

J. Lingard 1 👟 45' M 6.20

Rodrigo Garro 1 ⚽ 77' M 8.20

Breno Bidon 76' M 6.60

Yuri Alberto F 6.00

Bench

Alex Santana M

Allan 14' M 6.90

André Luiz 27' M 6.60

Dieguinho 13' M 6.30

Fabrizio Angileri D

Gui Negão F

Iago Machado D

Kaio César 45' F 7.00

Kauê Camargo G

Matheus Pereira M

Pedro Milans D

Pedro Raul 13' F 6.50

Best on the pitch

Arthur Cabral

F · Botafogo

9.60

3 ⚽

5 shots · 14 pass

Rodrigo Garro

M · Corinthians

8.20

1 ⚽

4 shots · 39 pass

André Carrillo

M · Corinthians

7.50

· 41 pass

Cristian Medina

M · Botafogo

7.30

2 shots · 18 pass

Álvaro Montoro

M · Botafogo

7.30

· 25 pass

Kaio César

F · Corinthians

7.00

· 13 pass

Botafogo — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Neto	G	90	6.70	—	—	—	27	10%	—	—	—
Alex Telles	D	90	6.50	—	—	1	16	12%	1	1	—
A. Barboza	D	90	6.70	—	—	1	38	25%	1	1	—
Nahuel Ferraresi	D	90	6.70	—	—	—	39	26%	3	—	—
Mateo Ponte	D	66	6.90	—	—	—	19	14%	—	1	—
Cristian Medina	M	80	7.30	—	—	2	18	14%	4	1	—
Huguinho	M	90	6.30	—	—	—	26	22%	1	—	—
Álvaro Montoro	M	80	7.30	—	—	—	25	20%	1	—	—
K. Barria	M	45	6.50	—	1	—	5	3%	—	—	—
Lucas Villalba	M	73	6.60	—	1	—	7	4%	1	1	—
Arthur Cabral	F	90	9.60	3	—	5	14	10%	1	1	—
Edenilson	M	17	6.70	—	—	—	7	4%	—	—	—
Gabriel Justino	D	10	6.70	—	—	—	3	3%	—	—	—
Kauan Toledo	M	45	6.20	—	1	1	6	6%	—	—	—
S. Rodríguez	M	10	6.70	—	—	1	1	1%	—	—	—
Vitinho	D	24	6.60	—	—	—	4	1%	—	—	—

Corinthians — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Hugo Souza	G	90	5.60	—	—	—	23	15%	—	—	—
Matheus Bidu	D	90	6.30	—	—	1	49	44%	1	—	—
Gustavo Henrique	D	90	6.30	—	—	3	52	46%	1	—	—
André Ramalho	D	90	6.20	—	—	1	56	50%	1	—	—
Matheuzinho	D	90	6.50	—	—	—	47	42%	3	—	—
Raniele	M	63	6.70	—	—	1	27	23%	3	—	—
André Carrillo	M	77	7.50	—	—	—	41	40%	2	—	—
J. Lingard	M	45	6.20	—	1	—	20	17%	—	1	—
Rodrigo Garro	M	77	8.20	1	—	4	39	32%	—	—	—
Breno Bidon	M	76	6.60	—	—	1	38	31%	1	—	—
Yuri Alberto	F	90	6.00	—	—	2	21	18%	—	—	—
Allan	M	14	6.90	—	—	—	21	21%	—	—	—
André Luiz	M	27	6.60	—	—	—	10	7%	—	—	—
Dieguinho	M	13	6.30	—	—	—	9	8%	—	—	—
Kaio César	F	45	7.00	—	—	—	13	10%	2	—	—
Pedro Raul	F	13	6.50	—	—	—	2	1%	—	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Botafogo vs Corinthians?

The final score was Botafogo 3–1 Corinthians.

What did the model predict before Botafogo vs Corinthians?

The model assigned 60% probability to a Botafogo win, 21% to a draw, and 18% to an Corinthians win.