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← Brasileirão Série A
Brasileirão Série A · Regular Season - 16 May 17, 2026 21:00 Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro
Botafogo
#14 · 31 pts
3 – 1
Final score
Corinthians
#12 · 32 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Botafogo
Arthur Cabral (ast. L. M. Villalba Jaume) 7'
Arthur Cabral (ast. K. Barria) 32'
Arthur Cabral (ast. Kauan Toledo) 70'
11' (ast. J. Lingard) R. Garro
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Botafogo a 60% win probability (draw 21%, Corinthians 18%). The final result was Botafogo 3–1 Corinthians.

Match statistics
11
Total shots
13
5
Shots on target
1
0.82
Actual xG
1.11
0
Saves
2
35%
Possession
65%
3
Corners
2
13
Tackles
14
6
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
⚽Arthur Cabral · ast. L. M. Villalba Jaume
7'
11'
ast. J. Lingard · R. Garro⚽
M. Ponte
20'
⚽Arthur Cabral · ast. K. Barria
32'
C. Medina
39'
45'+6
J. Lingard
↕ K. Barria / Kauan Toledo
46'
46'
Kaio Cesar / J. Lingard ↕
63'
Andre / Raniele ↕
↕ M. Ponte / Vitinho
66'
⚽Arthur Cabral · ast. Kauan Toledo
70'
Arthur Cabral
71'
L. M. Villalba Jaume
73'
↕ L. M. Villalba Jaume / Edenilson
73'
76'
Allan / Breno Bidon ↕
77'
Pedro Raul / R. Garro ↕
77'
Dieguinho / A. Carrillo ↕
↕ C. Medina / G. Justino
80'
↕ A. Montoro / S. Rodriguez
80'
A. Barboza
81'
Alex Telles
90'+1
Pre-match prediction
60.2%
Botafogo ←
21.08%
X
18.73%
Corinthians
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Botafogo) 60.2% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Botafogo
2.06
0.82
-1.24
Corinthians
0.80
1.11
+0.31
xG dominance was balanced (0.82 – 1.11). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Palmeiras Palmeiras 27 56
2 Flamengo Flamengo 26 54
3 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 27 46
4 Fluminense Fluminense 27 45
5 Bahia Bahia 26 43
6 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 26 42
7 Atletico-MG Atletico-MG 26 39
8 Coritiba Coritiba 27 38
9 RB Bragantino RB Bragantino 25 35
10 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 26 33
11 Vitoria Vitoria 26 32
12 Corinthians Corinthians 26 32
13 Santos Santos 25 32
14 Botafogo Botafogo 25 31
15 Gremio Gremio 26 28
16 Mirassol Mirassol 26 28
17 Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama 26 28
18 Internacional Internacional 27 28
19 Remo Remo 26 23
20 Chapecoense-sc Chapecoense-sc 26 17
Lineups
Botafogo Botafogo 4-2-3-1
22 Neto Neto G 6.70
13 Alex Telles Alex Telles D 6.50
20 A. Barboza A. Barboza D 6.70
5 N. Ferraresi N. Ferraresi D 6.70
4 M. Ponte M. Ponte 66' D 6.90
6 C. Medina C. Medina 80' M 7.30
75 Huguinho Huguinho M 6.30
10 Álvaro Montoro Álvaro Montoro 80' M 7.30
37 K. Barria K. Barria 1 👟 45' M 6.50
77 L. Villalba L. Villalba 1 👟 73' M 6.60
19 Arthur Cabral Arthur Cabral 3 ⚽ F 9.60
Bench
27 Caio Roque Caio Roque D
45 Caio Valle Caio Valle M
88 Edenílson Edenílson 17' M 6.70
34 G. Justino G. Justino 10' D 6.70
14 Jordan Barrera Jordan Barrera M
42 Kadu Santos Kadu Santos D
59 Kauan Toledo Kauan Toledo 1 👟 45' M 6.20
24 Léo Linck Léo Linck G
21 Marçal Marçal D
1
Raul G
23 S. Rodríguez S. Rodríguez 10' M 6.70
2 Vitinho Vitinho 24' D 6.60
Corinthians Corinthians 4-2-3-1
1 Hugo Souza Hugo Souza G 5.60
21 Matheus Bidu Matheus Bidu D 6.30
13 Gustavo Henrique Gustavo Henrique D 6.30
5 André Ramalho André Ramalho D 6.20
2 Matheuzinho Matheuzinho D 6.50
14 Raniele Raniele 63' M 6.70
19 A. Carrillo A. Carrillo 77' M 7.50
77 J. Lingard J. Lingard 1 👟 45' M 6.20
8 R. Garro R. Garro 1 ⚽ 77' M 8.20
7 Breno Breno 76' M 6.60
9 Yuri Alberto Yuri Alberto F 6.00
Bench
80 Alex Santana Alex Santana M
29 Allan Allan 14' M 6.90
49 André Luiz André Luiz 27' M 6.60
61 Dieguinho Dieguinho 13' M 6.30
26 F. Angileri F. Angileri D
56 Guilherme Inácio Guilherme Inácio F
55 I. Machado I. Machado D
37 Kaio César Kaio César 45' F 7.00
51 Kauê Camargo Kauê Camargo G
23 Matheus Pereira Matheus Pereira M
18 Pedro Raul Pedro Raul 13' F 6.50
20 P. Milans P. Milans D
Best on the pitch
Arthur Cabral
Arthur Cabral
F · Botafogo
9.60
3 ⚽
5 shots · 14 pass
R. Garro
R. Garro
M · Corinthians
8.20
1 ⚽
4 shots · 39 pass
A. Carrillo
A. Carrillo
M · Corinthians
7.50
· 41 pass
C. Medina
C. Medina
M · Botafogo
7.30
2 shots · 18 pass
Álvaro Montoro
Álvaro Montoro
M · Botafogo
7.30
· 25 pass
Kaio César
Kaio César
F · Corinthians
7.00
· 13 pass
Botafogo Botafogo — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Neto G 90 6.70 — — — 27 10% — — —
Alex Telles D 90 6.50 — — 1 16 12% 1 1 —
A. Barboza D 90 6.70 — — 1 38 25% 1 1 —
N. Ferraresi D 90 6.70 — — — 39 26% 3 — —
M. Ponte D 66 6.90 — — — 19 14% — 1 —
C. Medina M 80 7.30 — — 2 18 14% 4 1 —
Huguinho M 90 6.30 — — — 26 22% 1 — —
Álvaro Montoro M 80 7.30 — — — 25 20% 1 — —
K. Barria M 45 6.50 — 1 — 5 3% — — —
L. Villalba M 73 6.60 — 1 — 7 4% 1 1 —
Arthur Cabral F 90 9.60 3 — 5 14 10% 1 1 —
Edenílson M 17 6.70 — — — 7 4% — — —
G. Justino D 10 6.70 — — — 3 3% — — —
Kauan Toledo M 45 6.20 — 1 1 6 6% — — —
S. Rodríguez M 10 6.70 — — 1 1 1% — — —
Vitinho D 24 6.60 — — — 4 1% — — —
Corinthians Corinthians — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Hugo Souza G 90 5.60 — — — 23 15% — — —
Matheus Bidu D 90 6.30 — — 1 49 44% 1 — —
Gustavo Henrique D 90 6.30 — — 3 52 46% 1 — —
André Ramalho D 90 6.20 — — 1 56 50% 1 — —
Matheuzinho D 90 6.50 — — — 47 42% 3 — —
Raniele M 63 6.70 — — 1 27 23% 3 — —
A. Carrillo M 77 7.50 — — — 41 40% 2 — —
J. Lingard M 45 6.20 — 1 — 20 17% — 1 —
R. Garro M 77 8.20 1 — 4 39 32% — — —
Breno M 76 6.60 — — 1 38 31% 1 — —
Yuri Alberto F 90 6.00 — — 2 21 18% — — —
Allan M 14 6.90 — — — 21 21% — — —
André Luiz M 27 6.60 — — — 10 7% — — —
Dieguinho M 13 6.30 — — — 9 8% — — —
Kaio César F 45 7.00 — — — 13 10% 2 — —
Pedro Raul F 13 6.50 — — — 2 1% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Botafogo vs Corinthians?
The final score was Botafogo 3–1 Corinthians.
What did the model predict before Botafogo vs Corinthians?
The model assigned 60% probability to a Botafogo win, 21% to a draw, and 18% to an Corinthians win.