Skip to main content
← Brasileirão Série A

Botafogo - Gremio

Brasileirão Série A July 29, 2026 22:00
Botafogo
#7 · 29 pts
vs
Gremio
#15 · 22 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
60.03%
Win
Botafogo
22.48%
Draw
17.5%
Win
Gremio
1.74
Expected xG
0.75
Most likely outcome
Botafogo
60.03%
Probability
51.9%
1X2 accuracy · 27 predictions (3 months)

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–0 (14.96%)
1X2 Result
1 60%
X 22%
2 18%
Double Chance
1X 83%
X2 40%
12 78%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 73%
✓ 81.9% hit rate (72 picks)
Over 2.5 46%
✓ 55.6% hit rate (45 picks)
Share Telegram

The ForzaPitch prediction gives Botafogo a 60% win probability, against 22% for a draw and 17% for Gremio. Expected goals are 1.7 for Botafogo and 0.8 for Gremio (total 2.5), with a 73% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 14.96% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Botafogo have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Gremio.

Season Stats

Botafogo
7W 5D 3L
Gremio
3W 6D 6L
Averages per game
1.7
Goals
0.9
1.4
Conceded
1.1
5.8
Shots OT
3.1
4.7
Corners
3.5
47%
Poss.
50%
Percentages
87%
O 1.5
67%
73%
O 2.5
33%
87%
BTTS
53%
13%
Clean Sht
33%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in Brasileirão Série A. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
28%
O 3.5
64%
BTTS
Botafogo
4W 3D 2L · at home
Gremio
0W 4D 6L · away
1.9
gls/g
0.6
1.4
Conceded
1.4
44%
Win %
0%
78%
Win or Draw
40%
89%
O 1.5
80%
89%
O 2.5
40%
56%
O 3.5
0%
67%
BTTS
60%
22%
Clean Sht
20%
22%
Failed to Score
40%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Botafogo Gremio →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 8.3% 6.2% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1% —
1 14.4% 10.8% 4.1% 1.0% 0.2% —
2 12.5% 9.4% 3.5% 0.9% 0.2% —
3 7.2% 5.5% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% —
4 3.1% 2.4% 0.9% 0.2% — —
5 1.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% — —

Recent form

Botafogo Botafogo
W Cruzeiro 0–1
D Vitoria 0–0
W Santos 2–1
L Bahia 2–1
D Sao Paulo 1–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 27%
Gremio Gremio
D Fluminense 1–1
L Mirassol 2–1
L Corinthians 1–3
W Santos 3–2
D Bahia 1–1
Away clean sheet (120 days) 37%

Playing profile

Botafogo Botafogo
Attack
41
Defence
57
Form
55
Gremio Gremio
Attack
26
Defence
62
Form
39
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

0
Botafogo
0
Draw
1
Gremio
5 Feb 2026 Brasileirão Série A 3–5

League Table

# Team G Pts
1 Palmeiras Palmeiras 20 44
2 Flamengo Flamengo 19 38
3 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 20 36
4 Fluminense Fluminense 20 33
5 RB Bragantino RB Bragantino 20 31
6 Bahia Bahia 20 31
7 Botafogo Botafogo 20 29
8 Atletico-MG Atletico-MG 20 28
9 Corinthians Corinthians 20 28
10 Coritiba Coritiba 20 27
11 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 20 27
12 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 20 26
13 Vitoria Vitoria 20 26
14 Santos Santos 20 22
15 Gremio Gremio 20 22
16 Internacional Internacional 20 21
17 Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama 20 21
18 Remo Remo 20 21
19 Mirassol Mirassol 19 20
20 Chapecoense-sc Chapecoense-sc 20 10
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Botafogo vs Gremio?
The model gives Botafogo a 60% win probability, 22% for a draw, and 17% for an Gremio win.
How many goals are expected in Botafogo vs Gremio?
Expected goals: Botafogo 1.7, Gremio 0.8 (total 2.5). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 73%.
What is the most likely score in Botafogo vs Gremio?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 14.96%.