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Botafogo - Gremio

Brasileirão Série A September 17, 2026 00:30
Botafogo
#14 · 31 pts
vs
Gremio
#15 · 28 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
60.03%
Win
Botafogo
22.48%
Draw
17.5%
Win
Gremio
1.74
Expected xG
0.75
Most likely outcome
Botafogo
60.03%
Probability
62.5%
1X2 accuracy · 32 predictions (3 months)

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–0 (14.96%)
1X2 Result
1 60%
X 22%
2 18%
Double Chance
1X 83%
X2 40%
12 78%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 73%
Over 2.5 46%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Botafogo a 60% win probability, against 22% for a draw and 17% for Gremio. Expected goals are 1.7 for Botafogo and 0.8 for Gremio (total 2.5), with a 73% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 14.96% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Botafogo have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Gremio.

Season Stats

Botafogo
4W 6D 5L
Gremio
4W 4D 7L
Averages per game
1.3
Goals
0.9
1.3
Conceded
1.3
5.7
Shots OT
2.8
5.1
Corners
3.7
46%
Poss.
49%
Percentages
73%
O 1.5
60%
53%
O 2.5
40%
67%
BTTS
47%
20%
Clean Sht
20%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in Brasileirão Série A. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
25%
O 3.5
60%
BTTS
Botafogo
3W 5D 2L · at home
Gremio
0W 3D 7L · away
1.6
gls/g
0.4
1.4
Conceded
1.4
30%
Win %
0%
80%
Win or Draw
30%
80%
O 1.5
60%
70%
O 2.5
40%
50%
O 3.5
0%
80%
BTTS
40%
20%
Clean Sht
20%
20%
Failed to Score
60%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Botafogo Gremio →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 8.3% 6.2% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1% —
1 14.4% 10.8% 4.1% 1.0% 0.2% —
2 12.5% 9.4% 3.5% 0.9% 0.2% —
3 7.2% 5.5% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% —
4 3.1% 2.4% 0.9% 0.2% — —
5 1.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% — —

Recent form

Botafogo Botafogo
D Palmeiras 0–0
L Flamengo 3–0
L Atletico Paranaense 2–3
L Vitoria 1–0
D Fluminense 1–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 39%
Gremio Gremio
L Vitoria 1–0
W Chapecoense-sc 3–1
L RB Bragantino 1–0
L Atletico-MG 3–0
W Sao Paulo 2–1
Away clean sheet (120 days) 19%

Playing profile

Botafogo Botafogo
Attack
38
Defence
59
Form
40
Gremio Gremio
Attack
26
Defence
52
Form
41
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

0
Botafogo
0
Draw
1
Gremio
5 Feb 2026 Brasileirão Série A 3–5

League Table

# Team G Pts
1 Palmeiras Palmeiras 27 56
2 Flamengo Flamengo 26 54
3 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 27 46
4 Fluminense Fluminense 27 45
5 Bahia Bahia 26 43
6 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 26 42
7 Atletico-MG Atletico-MG 26 39
8 Coritiba Coritiba 27 38
9 RB Bragantino RB Bragantino 25 35
10 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 26 33
11 Vitoria Vitoria 26 32
12 Corinthians Corinthians 26 32
13 Santos Santos 25 32
14 Botafogo Botafogo 25 31
15 Gremio Gremio 26 28
16 Mirassol Mirassol 26 28
17 Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama 26 28
18 Internacional Internacional 27 28
19 Remo Remo 26 23
20 Chapecoense-sc Chapecoense-sc 26 17
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Botafogo vs Gremio?
The model gives Botafogo a 60% win probability, 22% for a draw, and 17% for an Gremio win.
How many goals are expected in Botafogo vs Gremio?
Expected goals: Botafogo 1.7, Gremio 0.8 (total 2.5). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 73%.
What is the most likely score in Botafogo vs Gremio?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 14.96%.