Copa Sudamericana
· Group Stage - 3
April 29, 2026 00:00
✓Model correct — prediction Botafogo
M. Ponte
(ast. Alex Telles)
15'
A. Montoro
62'
Newton
(ast. C. Ramos)
77'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Botafogo a 61% win probability (draw 20%, Independiente Petrolero 17%). The final result was Botafogo 3–0 Independiente Petrolero. In 1 previous meetings, Botafogo have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Independiente Petrolero.
Match statistics
21
Total shots
3
14
Shots on target
2
4.01
Actual xG
0.06
2
Saves
10
62%
Possession
38%
14
Corners
1
9
Tackles
9
2
🟨 Yellow cards
2
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
⚽M. Ponte
· ast. Alex Telles
15'
56'
A. Mercado
/
R. Cardozo
56'
R. Rivas
/
J. E. Cristaldo
⚽A. Montoro
62'
64'
G. Cristaldo
/
D. Vargas
Arthur Cabral
/ C. Ramos
64'
A. Montoro
/ S. Rodriguez
64'
K. Barria
/ J. Correa
65'
Bastos
66'
Alex Telles
/ Marcal
67'
68'
Eduardo
71'
H. Leanos
/
F. Rodriguez
71'
R. Lutkowski
/
Wagner Pinote
Edenilson
/ Newton
74'
⚽Newton
· ast. C. Ramos
77'
S. Rodriguez
83'
90'
Eduardo
90'
Eduardo
Pre-match prediction
61.95%
Botafogo ←
20.36%
X
17.69%
Independiente
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Botafogo)
61.95%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
3.20
4.01
+0.81
0.84
0.06
-0.78
Botafogo dominated by xG (4.01 vs 0.06).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
22
G
13
Alex Telles
1 👟
67'
D
Alex Telles
1 👟
67'
D
20
A. Barboza
D
A. Barboza
D
15
Bastos
D
4
Mateo Ponte
1 ⚽
D
Mateo Ponte
1 ⚽
D
25
Allan
M
6
C. Medina
M
C. Medina
M
88
Edenilson
74'
M
Edenilson
74'
M
10
Álvaro Montoro
1 ⚽
64'
M
Álvaro Montoro
1 ⚽
64'
M
37
Kadir Barría
65'
M
19
Arthur Cabral
64'
F
Arthur Cabral
64'
F
Bench
8
Danilo Santos
M
Danilo Santos
M
30
J. Correa
29'
F
J. Correa
29'
F
7
Junior Santos
F
77
Lucas Villalba
F
Lucas Villalba
F
11
Matheus Martins
F
Matheus Martins
F
5
Nahuel Ferraresi
D
28
Newton
1 ⚽
20'
M
Newton
1 ⚽
20'
M
1
Raul
G
Raul
G
23
Santiago Rodríguez
30'
M
Santiago Rodríguez
30'
M
2
Vitinho
D
Vitinho
D
1
G
4
Francisco Rodriguez
71'
D
Francisco Rodriguez
71'
D
3
D
5
Luis Palma
D
Luis Palma
D
2
S. Torres
D
S. Torres
D
6
Daniel Rojas
M
Daniel Rojas
M
50
Diego Vargas
64'
M
Diego Vargas
64'
M
7
Rudy Cardozo
56'
M
Rudy Cardozo
56'
M
93
Willie
M
Willie
M
99
71'
M
9
J. Cristaldo
56'
F
J. Cristaldo
56'
F
Bench
88
Adelan Santos Da Silva
M
Adelan Santos Da Silva
M
20
A. Mercado
38'
M
A. Mercado
38'
M
27
Diego Navarro
F
Diego Navarro
F
19
Gustavo Cristaldo
30'
M
Gustavo Cristaldo
30'
M
32
Heber Leanos
23'
D
Heber Leanos
23'
D
13
L. Montenegro
D
11
Rafael Lutkowski
23'
F
Rafael Lutkowski
23'
F
16
Ronny Montero
D
Ronny Montero
D
23
R. Rivas
38'
F
R. Rivas
38'
F
Best on the pitch
G · Independiente
8.60
· 25 pass
Alex Telles
D · Botafogo
8.30
1 👟
· 23 pass
Mateo Ponte
D · Botafogo
8.20
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 34 pass
Álvaro Montoro
M · Botafogo
8.00
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 32 pass
Newton
M · Botafogo
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 16 pass
A. Barboza
D · Botafogo
7.50
· 64 pass
Botafogo — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 94 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 16 | 14% | — | — | — | |
| Alex Telles | D | 67 | 8.30 | — | 1 | — | 23 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Barboza | D | 94 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 64 | 56% | 2 | — | — |
| Bastos | D | 94 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 62 | 58% | — | 1 | — |
| Mateo Ponte | D | 94 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 34 | 31% | 2 | — | — |
| Allan | M | 94 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 55 | 49% | 2 | — | — |
| C. Medina | M | 94 | 7.30 | — | — | 3 | 53 | 48% | 1 | — | — |
| Edenilson | M | 74 | 7.00 | — | — | 2 | 29 | 24% | — | — | — |
| Álvaro Montoro | M | 64 | 8.00 | 1 | — | 3 | 32 | 25% | 1 | — | — |
| Kadir Barría | M | 65 | 6.70 | — | — | 4 | 9 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Arthur Cabral | F | 64 | 6.30 | — | — | 3 | 8 | 4% | — | — | — |
| J. Correa | F | 29 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 12 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Newton | M | 20 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 1 | 16 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Santiago Rodríguez | M | 30 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 17 | 14% | — | 1 | — |
Independiente Petrolero — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 94 | 8.60 | — | — | — | 25 | 10% | — | — | — | |
| Francisco Rodriguez | D | 71 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 8 | 6% | — | — | — |
| D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 26 | 21% | — | 2 | 1 | |
| Luis Palma | D | 94 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 16% | — | — | — |
| S. Torres | D | 94 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 28 | 19% | 2 | — | — |
| Daniel Rojas | M | 94 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 38 | 34% | 3 | — | — |
| Diego Vargas | M | 64 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 6 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
| Rudy Cardozo | M | 56 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 20 | 18% | — | — | — |
| Willie | M | 94 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 44 | 39% | 1 | — | — |
| M | 71 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 10% | 1 | — | — | |
| J. Cristaldo | F | 56 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 15 | 9% | — | — | — |
| A. Mercado | M | 38 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 4 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Gustavo Cristaldo | M | 30 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 10 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| Heber Leanos | D | 23 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 12 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Rafael Lutkowski | F | 23 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 8 | 6% | — | — | — |
| R. Rivas | F | 38 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 5 | 4% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Botafogo vs Independiente Petrolero?
The final score was Botafogo 3–0 Independiente Petrolero.
What did the model predict before Botafogo vs Independiente Petrolero?
The model assigned 61% probability to a Botafogo win, 20% to a draw, and 17% to an Independiente Petrolero win.