← Copa Sudamericana
Copa Sudamericana · Group Stage - 3 April 29, 2026 00:00
Botafogo
#1 · 10 pts
3 – 0
Final score
Independiente Petrolero
#4 · 0 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Botafogo
M. Ponte (ast. Alex Telles) 15'
A. Montoro 62'
Newton (ast. C. Ramos) 77'

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Botafogo a 61% win probability (draw 20%, Independiente Petrolero 17%). The final result was Botafogo 3–0 Independiente Petrolero.

Match statistics
21
Total shots
3
14
Shots on target
2
4.01
Actual xG
0.06
2
Saves
10
62%
Possession
38%
14
Corners
1
9
Tackles
9
2
🟨 Yellow cards
2
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
⚽M. Ponte · ast. Alex Telles
15'
56'
A. Mercado / R. Cardozo ↕
56'
R. Rivas / J. E. Cristaldo ↕
⚽A. Montoro
62'
64'
G. Cristaldo / D. Vargas ↕
↕ Arthur Cabral / C. Ramos
64'
↕ A. Montoro / S. Rodriguez
64'
↕ K. Barria / J. Correa
65'
Bastos
66'
↕ Alex Telles / Marcal
67'
68'
Eduardo
71'
H. Leanos / F. Rodriguez ↕
71'
R. Lutkowski / Wagner Pinote ↕
↕ Edenilson / Newton
74'
⚽Newton · ast. C. Ramos
77'
S. Rodriguez
83'
90'
Eduardo
90'
Eduardo
Pre-match prediction
61.95%
Botafogo ←
20.36%
X
17.69%
Independiente
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Botafogo) 61.95% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Botafogo
3.20
4.01
+0.81
Independiente
0.84
0.06
-0.78
Botafogo dominated by xG (4.01 vs 0.06). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Atletico Torque Atletico Torque 4 9
1 Cienciano Cienciano 4 7
1 Botafogo Botafogo 4 10
1 Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama 4 7
1 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 4 8
1 River Plate River Plate 4 10
1 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo 4 6
1 Macara Macara 4 8
2 Gremio Gremio 4 7
2 Olimpia Olimpia 4 7
2 RB Bragantino RB Bragantino 4 6
2 America de Cali America de Cali 4 7
2 Puerto Cabello Puerto Cabello 4 6
2 Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca 4 5
2 O'Higgins O'Higgins 4 7
2 Caracas FC Caracas FC 4 8
3 Racing Club Racing Club 4 4
3 Juventud Juventud 4 5
3 Deportivo Recoleta Deportivo Recoleta 4 4
3 Deportivo Riestra Deportivo Riestra 4 4
3 Carabobo FC Carabobo FC 4 6
3 Tigre Tigre 4 5
3 A. Italiano A. Italiano 4 4
3 Millonarios Millonarios 4 7
4 Barracas Central Barracas Central 4 3
4 Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico 4 1
4 Santos Santos 4 3
4 Atletico-MG Atletico-MG 4 4
4 Boston River Boston River 4 0
4 Blooming Blooming 4 1
4 Independiente Petrolero Independiente Petrolero 4 0
4 Palestino Palestino 4 2
Lineups
Botafogo Botafogo 4-2-3-1
22
G 6.90
13 Alex Telles Alex Telles 1 👟 67' D 8.30
20 Alexander Barboza Alexander Barboza D 7.50
15
Bastos D 6.90
4 Mateo Ponte Mateo Ponte 1 ⚽ D 8.20
25
Allan M 7.20
6 Cristian Medina Cristian Medina M 7.30
88 Edenilson Edenilson 74' M 7.00
10 Álvaro Montoro Álvaro Montoro 1 ⚽ 64' M 8.00
37 Kadir Barría Kadir Barría 65' M 6.70
19 Arthur Cabral Arthur Cabral 64' F 6.30
Bench
8 Danilo Oliveira Danilo Oliveira M
30 Joaquín Correa Joaquín Correa 29' F 6.70
7
Junior Santos F
77 Lucas Villalba Lucas Villalba F
11 Matheus Martins Matheus Martins F
5 Nahuel Ferraresi Nahuel Ferraresi D
28 Newton Newton 1 ⚽ 20' M 7.70
1 Raul Raul G
23
S. Rodriguez 30' M 7.30
2
Vitinho D
Independiente Petrolero Independiente Petrolero 4-2-3-1
1
G 8.60
4
F. Rodriguez 71' D 6.50
3
D 6.30
5
Luis Palma D 6.90
2
S. Torres D 6.20
6
Daniel Rojas M 7.20
50
Diego Vargas 64' M 6.20
7
R. Cardozo 56' M 6.70
93
Willie M 6.90
99
71' M 6.20
9
J. E. Cristaldo 56' F 6.30
Bench
88
Adelan Santos Da Silva M
20
A. Mercado 38' M 6.50
27
D. Navarro F
19
G. Cristaldo 30' M 6.50
32
H. Leanos 23' D 6.20
13
L. Montenegro D
11
R. Lutkowski 23' F 6.30
16
R. Montero D
23
R. Rivas 38' F 6.70
Best on the pitch
G · Independiente
8.60
· 25 pass
Alex Telles
Alex Telles
D · Botafogo
8.30
1 👟
· 23 pass
Mateo Ponte
Mateo Ponte
D · Botafogo
8.20
1 ⚽
1 shots · 34 pass
Álvaro Montoro
Álvaro Montoro
M · Botafogo
8.00
1 ⚽
3 shots · 32 pass
Newton
Newton
M · Botafogo
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots · 16 pass
Alexander Barboza
Alexander Barboza
D · Botafogo
7.50
· 64 pass
Botafogo Botafogo — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 94 6.90 — — — 16 14% — — —
Alex Telles D 67 8.30 — 1 — 23 22% 1 — —
Alexander Barboza D 94 7.50 — — — 64 56% 2 — —
Bastos D 94 6.90 — — 2 62 58% — 1 —
Mateo Ponte D 94 8.20 1 — 1 34 31% 2 — —
Allan M 94 7.20 — — — 55 49% 2 — —
Cristian Medina M 94 7.30 — — 3 53 48% 1 — —
Edenilson M 74 7.00 — — 2 29 24% — — —
Álvaro Montoro M 64 8.00 1 — 3 32 25% 1 — —
Kadir Barría M 65 6.70 — — 4 9 7% — — —
Arthur Cabral F 64 6.30 — — 3 8 4% — — —
Joaquín Correa F 29 6.70 — — 2 12 10% — — —
Newton M 20 7.70 1 — 1 16 9% — — —
S. Rodriguez M 30 7.30 — — — 17 14% — 1 —
Independiente Petrolero Independiente Petrolero — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 94 8.60 — — — 25 10% — — —
F. Rodriguez D 71 6.50 — — — 8 6% — — —
D 90 6.30 — — — 26 21% — 2 1
Luis Palma D 94 6.90 — — 1 21 16% — — —
S. Torres D 94 6.20 — — — 28 19% 2 — —
Daniel Rojas M 94 7.20 — — — 38 34% 3 — —
Diego Vargas M 64 6.20 — — — 6 3% 1 — —
R. Cardozo M 56 6.70 — — — 20 18% — — —
Willie M 94 6.90 — — — 44 39% 1 — —
M 71 6.20 — — 1 13 10% 1 — —
J. E. Cristaldo F 56 6.30 — — — 15 9% — — —
A. Mercado M 38 6.50 — — — 4 3% — — —
G. Cristaldo M 30 6.50 — — — 10 8% 1 — —
H. Leanos D 23 6.20 — — — 12 9% — — —
R. Lutkowski F 23 6.30 — — — 8 6% — — —
R. Rivas F 38 6.70 — — 1 5 4% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Botafogo vs Independiente Petrolero?
The final score was Botafogo 3–0 Independiente Petrolero.
What did the model predict before Botafogo vs Independiente Petrolero?
The model assigned 61% probability to a Botafogo win, 20% to a draw, and 17% to an Independiente Petrolero win.