Copa Sudamericana
· Group Stage - 4
May 07, 2026 02:30
✓Model correct — prediction Botafogo
M. Di Cesare
19'
(og)
Danilo
(ast. Matheus Martins)
74'
49'
Adrian Martinez
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Botafogo a 55% win probability (draw 23%, Racing Club 20%). The final result was Botafogo 2–1 Racing Club. In 1 previous meetings, Botafogo have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Racing Club.
Match statistics
8
Total shots
10
4
Shots on target
5
1.14
Actual xG
0.86
4
Saves
3
44%
Possession
56%
5
Corners
4
10
Tackles
14
3
🟨 Yellow cards
3
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
3'
A. Fernandez
⚽M. Di Cesare
(og)
19'
K. Barria
26'
30'
B. Rodriguez
49'
Adrian Martinez⚽
59'
M. Zaracho
/
B. Rodriguez
60'
T. Conechny
/
S. Solari
K. Barria
/ Arthur Cabral
61'
65'
B. Zuculini
/
A. Forneris
⚽Danilo
· ast. Matheus Martins
74'
Matheus Martins
/ Edenilson
76'
Junior Santos
/ L. M. Villalba Jaume
77'
79'
M. Di Cesare
79'
M. Miljevic
/
A. Fernandez
80'
T. Perez
/
A. Garcia
L. M. Villalba Jaume
87'
Alex Telles
/ Marcal
90'+2
90'+3
F. Cambeses
90'+5
M. Tagliamonte
/
S. Sosa
Edenilson
90'
Pre-match prediction
55.93%
Botafogo ←
23.08%
X
20.98%
Racing
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Botafogo)
55.93%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.73
1.14
-0.59
0.90
0.86
-0.04
xG dominance was balanced (1.14 – 0.86).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
22
G
13
Alex Telles
89'
D
Alex Telles
89'
D
20
A. Barboza
D
A. Barboza
D
5
Nahuel Ferraresi
D
Nahuel Ferraresi
D
2
Vitinho
D
Vitinho
D
6
C. Medina
M
C. Medina
M
28
Newton
M
Newton
M
11
Matheus Martins
1 👟
76'
M
Matheus Martins
1 👟
76'
M
8
Danilo Santos
1 ⚽
M
Danilo Santos
1 ⚽
M
7
Júnior Santos
77'
M
Júnior Santos
77'
M
37
K. Barria
61'
F
K. Barria
61'
F
Bench
10
Álvaro Montoro
M
Álvaro Montoro
M
19
Arthur Cabral
29'
F
Arthur Cabral
29'
F
15
Bastos
D
88
Edenílson
14'
M
Edenílson
14'
M
30
J. Correa
F
J. Correa
F
14
Jordan Barrera
M
Jordan Barrera
M
77
L. Villalba
13'
F
L. Villalba
13'
F
4
M. Ponte
D
M. Ponte
D
1
Raul
G
25
F. Cambeses
G
F. Cambeses
G
27
G. Rojas
D
G. Rojas
D
2
A. García
80'
D
A. García
80'
D
13
S. Sosa
D
S. Sosa
D
3
M. Di Cesare
1 ⚽
D
M. Di Cesare
1 ⚽
D
15
Gastón Martirena
D
24
Adrián Fernández
79'
M
Adrián Fernández
79'
M
8
Alan Forneris
65'
M
Alan Forneris
65'
M
20
B. Gallego
59'
M
B. Gallego
59'
M
28
S. Solari
60'
F
S. Solari
60'
F
9
A. Martínez
1 ⚽
F
A. Martínez
1 ⚽
F
Bench
36
Bruno Zuculini
25'
M
7
Duván Vergara
F
Duván Vergara
F
18
F. Pardo
D
F. Pardo
D
44
G. Sosa
M
11
Matías Zaracho
31'
M
Matías Zaracho
31'
M
10
Matko Miljevic
11'
M
Matko Miljevic
11'
M
6
M. Rojo
D
M. Rojo
D
17
Tomás Conechny
30'
F
Tomás Conechny
30'
F
58
T. Pérez
10'
F
T. Pérez
10'
F
34
T. Rubio
D
T. Rubio
D
Best on the pitch
Danilo Santos
M · Botafogo
7.60
1 ⚽
4 shots
· 18 pass
C. Medina
M · Botafogo
7.60
1 shots
· 39 pass
G · Botafogo
7.50
· 25 pass
A. Martínez
F · Racing
7.20
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 9 pass
Matheus Martins
M · Botafogo
7.00
1 👟
1 shots
· 21 pass
Edenílson
M · Botafogo
7.00
· 7 pass
Botafogo — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 25 | 17% | — | — | — | |
| Alex Telles | D | 89 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 29 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Barboza | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 35 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| Nahuel Ferraresi | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 30 | 24% | 1 | — | — |
| Vitinho | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 24 | 18% | 2 | — | — |
| C. Medina | M | 90 | 7.60 | — | — | 1 | 39 | 32% | 2 | — | — |
| Newton | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 20 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| Matheus Martins | M | 76 | 7.00 | — | 1 | 1 | 21 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| Danilo Santos | M | 90 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 4 | 18 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Júnior Santos | M | 77 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 6 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
| K. Barria | F | 61 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 6% | — | 1 | — |
| Arthur Cabral | F | 29 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 14 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Edenílson | M | 14 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 7 | 5% | — | 1 | — |
| L. Villalba | F | 13 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1 | — |
Racing Club — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Cambeses | G | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 25 | 14% | — | — | 1 |
| G. Rojas | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 31 | 23% | 1 | — | — |
| A. García | D | 80 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 27% | 2 | — | — |
| S. Sosa | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 52 | 37% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Di Cesare | D | 90 | 5.70 | 1 | — | — | 42 | 36% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Gastón Martirena | D | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 16% | 2 | — | — |
| Adrián Fernández | M | 79 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 31 | 21% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Alan Forneris | M | 65 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 29 | 24% | 2 | — | — |
| B. Gallego | M | 59 | 6.00 | — | — | 1 | 16 | 9% | 1 | 1 | — |
| S. Solari | F | 60 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 21 | 11% | — | — | — |
| A. Martínez | F | 90 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 9 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Bruno Zuculini | M | 25 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 18 | 12% | 2 | — | — |
| Matías Zaracho | M | 31 | 7.00 | — | — | 2 | 9 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| Matko Miljevic | M | 11 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Tomás Conechny | F | 30 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 13 | 10% | — | — | — |
| T. Pérez | F | 10 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Botafogo vs Racing Club?
The final score was Botafogo 2–1 Racing Club.
What did the model predict before Botafogo vs Racing Club?
The model assigned 55% probability to a Botafogo win, 23% to a draw, and 20% to an Racing Club win.