✓Model correct — prediction Botafogo
L. E. Jales do Nascimento
(ast. Kauan Toledo)
41'
K. Barria
90'+5
57'
A. Barreal
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Botafogo a 59% win probability (draw 18%, Santos 21%). The final result was Botafogo 2–1 Santos.
Match statistics
10
Total shots
15
7
Shots on target
9
2.46
Actual xG
2.62
8
Saves
5
48%
Possession
52%
5
Corners
5
22
Tackles
25
4
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
Huguinho
25'
26'
Thaciano
⚽L. E. Jales do Nascimento
· ast. Kauan Toledo
41'
45'+2
A. Barreal
Matheus Martins
45'+2
54'
C. Oliva
/
Gustavo Henrique
57'
A. Barreal⚽
64'
Nadson
/
Miguelito
64'
Rony
/
Thaciano
Matheus Martins
/ S. Rodriguez
64'
71'
Gabriel Menino
/
Igor Vinicius
71'
Gabriel Bontempo
/
B. Rollheiser
Kauan Toledo
/ K. Barria
79'
L. E. Jales do Nascimento
/ Edenilson
79'
N. Ferraresi
80'
Alex Telles
/ Marcal
86'
Vitinho
/ M. Ponte
86'
⚽K. Barria
90'+5
K. Barria
90'+5
Pre-match prediction
59.47%
Botafogo ←
18.77%
X
21.76%
Santos
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Botafogo)
59.47%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.59
2.46
-0.13
1.47
2.62
+1.15
xG dominance was balanced (2.46 – 2.62).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
24
Léo Linck
G
Léo Linck
G
13
Alex Telles
86'
D
Alex Telles
86'
D
5
Nahuel Ferraresi
D
Nahuel Ferraresi
D
34
Gabriel Justino
D
Gabriel Justino
D
2
Vitinho
86'
D
Vitinho
86'
D
11
Matheus Martins
64'
M
Matheus Martins
64'
M
6
C. Medina
M
C. Medina
M
75
Huguinho
M
Huguinho
M
77
Lucas Villalba
M
Lucas Villalba
M
59
Kauan Toledo
1 👟
77'
F
Kauan Toledo
1 👟
77'
F
79
F
Bench
26
Anthony
D
Anthony
D
62
Cleber Lucas
G
Cleber Lucas
G
88
Edenilson
19'
M
Edenilson
19'
M
14
Jordan Barrera
M
Jordan Barrera
M
37
Kadir Barría
1 ⚽
20'
F
Kadir Barría
1 ⚽
20'
F
42
Kadu Santos
D
Kadu Santos
D
21
Marçal
11'
D
Marçal
11'
D
4
Mateo Ponte
11'
D
Mateo Ponte
11'
D
1
Raul
G
Raul
G
23
Santiago Rodríguez
33'
M
Santiago Rodríguez
33'
M
77
Gabriel Brazão
G
Gabriel Brazão
G
31
Gonzalo Escobar
D
Gonzalo Escobar
D
14
Luan Peres
D
Luan Peres
D
4
Lucas Veríssimo
D
Lucas Veríssimo
D
18
Igor Vinícius
71'
D
Igor Vinícius
71'
D
15
Willian Arão
M
Willian Arão
M
48
Gustavo Henrique Pereira
54'
M
Gustavo Henrique Pereira
54'
M
22
Álvaro Barreal
1 ⚽
M
Álvaro Barreal
1 ⚽
M
32
Benjamín Rollheiser
71'
M
Benjamín Rollheiser
71'
M
30
Miguelito
64'
M
Miguelito
64'
M
16
Thaciano
64'
F
Thaciano
64'
F
Bench
98
Adonis Frías
D
Adonis Frías
D
28
Christian Oliva
43'
M
Christian Oliva
43'
M
27
Davizinho
F
Davizinho
F
1
Diogenes
G
Diogenes
G
49
Gabriel Bontempo
26'
M
Gabriel Bontempo
26'
M
25
Gabriel Menino
26'
M
Gabriel Menino
26'
M
26
João Paulo Ananias
D
João Paulo Ananias
D
57
Nadson
33'
F
Nadson
33'
F
7
Robinho Júnior
F
Robinho Júnior
F
11
Rony
33'
F
Rony
33'
F
81
Samuel Mendes
M
Samuel Mendes
M
Best on the pitch
Léo Linck
G · Botafogo
7.70
· 35 pass
Willian Arão
M · Santos
7.50
· 40 pass
Nahuel Ferraresi
D · Botafogo
7.30
· 75 pass
Gabriel Justino
D · Botafogo
7.30
· 60 pass
Kadir Barría
F · Botafogo
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 3 pass
Álvaro Barreal
M · Santos
7.30
1 ⚽
5 shots
· 44 pass
Botafogo — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Léo Linck | G | 97 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 35 | 18% | — | — | — |
| Alex Telles | D | 86 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 26 | 24% | 1 | — | — |
| Nahuel Ferraresi | D | 97 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 75 | 68% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Gabriel Justino | D | 97 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 60 | 51% | 5 | — | — |
| Vitinho | D | 86 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 23 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| Matheus Martins | M | 64 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 16 | 14% | 5 | 1 | — |
| C. Medina | M | 97 | 6.70 | — | — | 4 | 37 | 31% | 3 | — | — |
| Huguinho | M | 97 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 41 | 33% | — | 1 | — |
| Lucas Villalba | M | 97 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 7% | 3 | — | — |
| Kauan Toledo | F | 77 | 6.90 | — | 1 | 1 | 11 | 11% | 2 | — | — |
| F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Edenilson | M | 19 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 7 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Kadir Barría | F | 20 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 3 | 2% | — | 1 | — |
| Marçal | D | 11 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 6 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Mateo Ponte | D | 11 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Santiago Rodríguez | M | 33 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 18 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
Santos — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Brazão | G | 97 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 20 | 15% | — | — | — |
| Gonzalo Escobar | D | 97 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 37 | 28% | 5 | — | — |
| Luan Peres | D | 97 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 49 | 37% | 1 | — | — |
| Lucas Veríssimo | D | 97 | 6.90 | — | — | 3 | 28 | 25% | — | — | — |
| Igor Vinícius | D | 71 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 41 | 32% | 3 | — | — |
| Willian Arão | M | 97 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 40 | 34% | 5 | — | — |
| Gustavo Henrique Pereira | M | 54 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 25 | 24% | 2 | — | — |
| Álvaro Barreal | M | 97 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 5 | 44 | 33% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Benjamín Rollheiser | M | 71 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 43 | 35% | 1 | — | — |
| Miguelito | M | 64 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 22 | 19% | 2 | — | — |
| Thaciano | F | 64 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 8 | 6% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Christian Oliva | M | 43 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 23 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Bontempo | M | 26 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Menino | M | 26 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 8 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| Nadson | F | 33 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 10 | 5% | 2 | — | — |
| Rony | F | 33 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 7 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Botafogo vs Santos?
The final score was Botafogo 2–1 Santos.
What did the model predict before Botafogo vs Santos?
The model assigned 59% probability to a Botafogo win, 18% to a draw, and 21% to an Santos win.