Francisco Evanilson
(ast. Adam Smith)
43'
Rayan Vitor Simplício Rocha
76'
Álvaro Rodríguez
90'+2
(pen.)
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Bournemouth a 47% win probability (draw 19%, Sturm Graz 32%). The final result was Bournemouth 3–0 Sturm Graz.
Match statistics
24
Total shots
6
8
Shots on target
1
2.73
Actual xG
0.38
1
Saves
4
62%
Possession
38%
7
Corners
3
13
Tackles
12
3
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
Francisco Evanilson
14'
41'
Belmin Beganovic
⚽Francisco Evanilson
· ast. Adam Smith
43'
Bafode Diakite
58'
61'
Oumar Diakité
/
Belmin Beganovic
Adam Smith
/ James Hill
62'
Julio Soler
66'
Tyler Adams
/ Ryan Christie
69'
Francisco Evanilson
/ Justin Kluivert
70'
Marcus Tavernier
/ Rayan Vitor Simplício Rocha
70'
75'
Julian Halwachs
/
Jacob Peter Hödl
75'
Albert Vallci
/
Petar Petrović
75'
Axel Kayombo
/
Simon Seidl
⚽Rayan Vitor Simplício Rocha
76'
83'
Paul Koller
/
Luis Balbo
Ben Gannon-Doak
/ Amine Adli
84'
85'
Julian Halwachs
87'
Albert Vallci
⚽Álvaro Rodríguez
(pen.)
90'+2
Pre-match prediction
47.87%
Bournemouth ←
19.65%
X
32.49%
Sturm
we assigned to the actual result (Bournemouth)
47.87%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.59
2.73
+0.14
2.26
0.38
-1.88
Bournemouth dominated by xG (2.73 vs 0.38).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Đ. Petrović
G
Đ. Petrović
G
6
J. Soler
D
J. Soler
D
14
António Silva
D
António Silva
D
18
B. Diakité
D
B. Diakité
D
15
A. Smith
1 👟
62'
D
A. Smith
1 👟
62'
D
16
M. Tavernier
70'
M
M. Tavernier
70'
M
12
T. Adams
69'
M
T. Adams
69'
M
4
L. Cook
M
L. Cook
M
11
B. Doak
84'
M
B. Doak
84'
M
30
Á. Rodríguez
1 ⚽
F
Á. Rodríguez
1 ⚽
F
9
Evanilson
1 ⚽
70'
F
Evanilson
1 ⚽
70'
F
Bench
21
A. Adli
6'
F
A. Adli
6'
F
27
A. Tóth
M
A. Tóth
M
3
A. Truffert
D
A. Truffert
D
7
D. Brooks
M
D. Brooks
M
5
J. Hill
28'
D
J. Hill
28'
D
19
J. Kluivert
20'
F
J. Kluivert
20'
F
55
M. Allan
G
M. Allan
G
20
M. Di Gregorio
G
M. Di Gregorio
G
37
Rayan
1 ⚽
20'
F
Rayan
1 ⚽
20'
F
10
R. Christie
21'
M
R. Christie
21'
M
53
D. Khudyakov
G
D. Khudyakov
G
27
L. Balbo
83'
D
L. Balbo
83'
D
21
P. Petrović
75'
D
P. Petrović
75'
D
2
J. Quarshie
D
J. Quarshie
D
23
A. Malic
D
A. Malic
D
28
J. Heil
D
J. Heil
D
43
Jacob Peter Hödl
75'
M
Jacob Peter Hödl
75'
M
4
J. Gorenc Stankovič
M
J. Gorenc Stankovič
M
78
V. Matoshi
M
V. Matoshi
M
26
B. Beganović
61'
F
B. Beganović
61'
F
19
S. Seidl
75'
F
S. Seidl
75'
F
Bench
22
A. Helac
G
A. Helac
G
11
A. Kayombo
15'
F
A. Kayombo
15'
F
5
A. Vallci
15'
D
A. Vallci
15'
D
41
E. Lorenz
G
E. Lorenz
G
40
J. Halwachs
15'
M
J. Halwachs
15'
M
38
Jonas Peinhart
F
Jonas Peinhart
F
37
J. Petritsch
D
J. Petritsch
D
39
Luca Weinhandl
M
Luca Weinhandl
M
25
M. Grgic
M
M. Grgic
M
14
O. Diakité
29'
F
O. Diakité
29'
F
30
P. Koller
7'
D
P. Koller
7'
D
Best on the pitch
Evanilson
F · Bournemouth
8.20
1 ⚽
4 shots
· 27 pass
Rayan
F · Bournemouth
7.73
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 8 pass
A. Smith
D · Bournemouth
7.51
1 👟
· 23 pass
António Silva
D · Bournemouth
7.48
1 shots
· 68 pass
J. Kluivert
F · Bournemouth
7.12
2 shots
· 11 pass
J. Hill
D · Bournemouth
7.10
3 shots
· 11 pass
Bournemouth — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Đ. Petrović | G | 90 | 6.52 | — | — | 0 | 35 | 22% | 0 | — | — |
| J. Soler | D | 90 | 6.82 | — | — | 1 | 37 | 33% | 3 | 1 | — |
| António Silva | D | 90 | 7.48 | — | — | 1 | 68 | 57% | 3 | — | — |
| B. Diakité | D | 90 | 6.62 | — | — | 0 | 50 | 46% | 1 | 1 | — |
| A. Smith | D | 62 | 7.51 | — | 1 | 0 | 23 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Tavernier | M | 70 | 6.64 | — | — | 3 | 28 | 24% | 0 | — | — |
| T. Adams | M | 69 | 6.29 | — | — | 0 | 54 | 48% | 0 | — | — |
| L. Cook | M | 90 | 7.03 | — | — | 1 | 37 | 32% | 0 | — | — |
| B. Doak | M | 84 | 6.19 | — | — | 2 | 43 | 32% | 1 | — | — |
| Á. Rodríguez | F | 90 | 6.91 | 1 | — | 4 | 24 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| Evanilson | F | 70 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 4 | 27 | 24% | 0 | 1 | — |
| A. Adli | F | 6 | 6.53 | — | — | 1 | 2 | 2% | 0 | — | — |
| J. Hill | D | 28 | 7.10 | — | — | 3 | 11 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Kluivert | F | 20 | 7.12 | — | — | 2 | 11 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| Rayan | F | 20 | 7.73 | 1 | — | 1 | 8 | 7% | 0 | — | — |
| R. Christie | M | 21 | 6.73 | — | — | 1 | 6 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
Sturm Graz — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Khudyakov | G | 90 | 6.55 | — | — | 0 | 30 | 12% | 0 | — | — |
| L. Balbo | D | 83 | 5.58 | — | — | 0 | 13 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| P. Petrović | D | 75 | 5.87 | — | — | 0 | 23 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Quarshie | D | 90 | 6.23 | — | — | 0 | 29 | 25% | 2 | — | — |
| A. Malic | D | 90 | 6.08 | — | — | 0 | 37 | 28% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Heil | D | 90 | 5.70 | — | — | 1 | 32 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| Jacob Peter Hödl | M | 75 | 6.02 | — | — | 1 | 17 | 13% | 0 | — | — |
| J. Gorenc Stankovič | M | 90 | 6.64 | — | — | 2 | 34 | 25% | 2 | — | — |
| V. Matoshi | M | 90 | 5.76 | — | — | 0 | 23 | 19% | 0 | — | — |
| B. Beganović | F | 61 | 5.98 | — | — | 0 | 5 | 1% | 1 | 1 | — |
| S. Seidl | F | 75 | 6.36 | — | — | 1 | 27 | 20% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Kayombo | F | 15 | 6.21 | — | — | 0 | 2 | 2% | 0 | — | — |
| A. Vallci | D | 15 | 5.50 | — | — | 0 | 4 | 2% | 0 | 1 | — |
| J. Halwachs | M | 15 | 5.69 | — | — | 0 | 9 | 8% | 1 | 1 | — |
| O. Diakité | F | 29 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 3 | 3% | 0 | — | — |
| P. Koller | D | 7 | 5.92 | — | — | 0 | 3 | 1% | 0 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz?
The final score was Bournemouth 3–0 Sturm Graz.
What did the model predict before Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz?
The model assigned 47% probability to a Bournemouth win, 19% to a draw, and 32% to an Sturm Graz win.