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Brazil - Japan

World Cup June 29, 2026 19:00 Sabah Al Salem Stadium, Kuwait
Brazil
#1 · 7 pts
vs
Japan
#2 · 5 pts
Weather at kick-off ☁️ Overcast 25.8°C 💨 13 km/h 🌧️ 37% · Kuwait
⚡ Pre-match analysis
55.13%
Win
Brazil
25.25%
Draw
19.62%
Win
Japan
2.38
Expected xG
1.12
Most likely result 2–1 (9.6%)
2+ goals
79%
3+ goals
68%
Model prediction
Brazil
55.13%
Probability
82.6%
1X2 accuracy · 23 predictions (3 months)
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Brazil a 55% win probability, against 25% for a draw and 19% for Japan. Expected goals are 2.4 for Brazil and 1.1 for Japan (total 3.5), with a 79% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–1 at 9.6% probability.

Season Stats

Brazil
2W 1D 0L
Japan
1W 2D 0L
Averages per game
2.3
Goals
2.3
0.3
Conceded
1.0
6.0
Shots OT
3.7
5.0
Corners
3.7
55%
Poss.
52%
Percentages
100%
O 1.5
100%
67%
O 2.5
67%
33%
BTTS
67%
67%
Clean Sht
33%
ℹ Based on the last 3 matches in World Cup. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
100%
O 1.5
75%
O 2.5
50%
O 3.5
50%
BTTS
Brazil
1W 1D 0L · at home
Japan
1W 1D 0L · away
2.0
gls/g
3.0
0.5
Conceded
1.0
50%
Win %
50%
100%
Win or Draw
100%
100%
O 1.5
100%
50%
O 2.5
100%
0%
O 3.5
100%
50%
BTTS
50%
50%
Clean Sht
50%
0%
Failed to Score
0%
last 2
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Brazil Japan →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 3.0% 3.4% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% —
1 7.2% 8.0% 4.5% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
2 8.6% 9.6% 5.4% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1%
3 6.8% 7.6% 4.3% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%
4 4.0% 4.5% 2.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
5 1.9% 2.2% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% —

Recent form

Brazil Brazil
W Scotland 0–3
W Haiti 3–0
D Morocco 1–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 22%
Japan Japan
D Sweden 1–1
W Tunisia 0–4
D Netherlands 2–2
Away clean sheet (120 days) 46%

Playing profile

Brazil Brazil
Attack
64
Defence
69
Form
72
Japan Japan
Attack
41
Defence
78
Form
58
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Unavailable

Brazil
Neymar
Neymar
Injured
Raphinha
Raphinha
Injured
Japan
S. Machino
S. Machino
Injured
T. Kubo
T. Kubo
Injured

Group C

# Team G Pts
1 Brazil Brazil 3 7
2 Morocco Morocco 3 7
3 Scotland Scotland 3 3
4 Haiti Haiti 3 0

What's at stake · Group C

Top 2 advance to the next round

Brazil Japan
Current #1 #1
→ Brazil #1 #1
→ Draw #1 #1
→ Japan #1 #1

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Brazil vs Japan?
The model gives Brazil a 55% win probability, 25% for a draw, and 19% for an Japan win.
How many goals are expected in Brazil vs Japan?
Expected goals: Brazil 2.4, Japan 1.1 (total 3.5). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 79%.
What is the most likely score in Brazil vs Japan?
2–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 9.6%.