✓Model correct — prediction Brazil
Casemiro
(ast. Gabriel)
56'
G. Martinelli
(ast. Bruno Guimaraes)
90'+5
29'
K. Sano
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Brazil a 55% win probability (draw 25%, Japan 19%). The final result was Brazil 2–1 Japan.
Match statistics
13
Total shots
3
7
Shots on target
2
1.69
Actual xG
0.23
1
Saves
4
69%
Possession
31%
6
Corners
2
12
Tackles
10
2
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
12'
K. Sano
Casemiro
14'
29'
K. Sano⚽
45'
D. Kamada
Lucas Paqueta
/ Endrick
46'
Danilo
48'
⚽Casemiro
· ast. Gabriel
56'
M. Cunha
/ G. Martinelli
66'
66'
Y. Sugawara
/
R. Doan
66'
J. Suzuki
/
K. Nakamura
78'
A. Tanaka
/
D. Kamada
78'
S. Machino
/
J. Ito
84'
J. Suzuki
Casemiro
/ Fabinho
90'+3
⚽G. Martinelli
· ast. Bruno Guimaraes
90'+5
90'+7
K. Ogawa
/
D. Maeda
Bruno Guimaraes
/ Danilo Santos
90'+8
Pre-match prediction
55.13%
Brazil ←
25.25%
X
19.62%
Japan
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Brazil)
55.13%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.38
1.69
-0.69
1.12
0.23
-0.89
Brazil dominated by xG (1.69 vs 0.23).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Alisson Becker
G
Alisson Becker
G
16
Douglas Santos
D
Douglas Santos
D
3
Gabriel Magalhães
1 👟
D
Gabriel Magalhães
1 👟
D
4
Marquinhos
D
Marquinhos
D
13
Danilo
D
Danilo
D
20
Lucas Paquetá
45'
M
Lucas Paquetá
45'
M
5
Casemiro
1 ⚽
89'
M
Casemiro
1 ⚽
89'
M
8
Bruno Guimarães
1 👟
89'
M
Bruno Guimarães
1 👟
89'
M
7
Vinícius Júnior
F
Vinícius Júnior
F
9
Matheus Cunha
66'
F
Matheus Cunha
66'
F
26
Rayan
F
Rayan
F
Bench
6
Alex Sandro
D
Alex Sandro
D
14
Bremer
D
Bremer
D
18
Danilo Santos
1'
M
Danilo Santos
1'
M
23
Ederson
G
Ederson
G
2
Éderson
M
Éderson
M
19
Endrick
45'
F
Endrick
45'
F
17
Fabinho
8'
M
Fabinho
8'
M
22
Gabriel Martinelli
1 ⚽
24'
F
Gabriel Martinelli
1 ⚽
24'
F
24
Ibañez
D
Ibañez
D
15
Léo Pereira
D
Léo Pereira
D
21
Luiz Henrique
F
Luiz Henrique
F
10
Neymar
F
Neymar
F
25
Thiago
F
Thiago
F
12
Weverton
G
Weverton
G
1
Z. Suzuki
G
Z. Suzuki
G
21
H. Ito
D
H. Ito
D
3
S. Taniguchi
D
S. Taniguchi
D
22
T. Tomiyasu
D
T. Tomiyasu
D
13
Keito Nakamura
66'
M
Keito Nakamura
66'
M
15
D. Kamada
78'
M
D. Kamada
78'
M
24
K. Sano
1 ⚽
M
K. Sano
1 ⚽
M
10
R. Dōan
66'
M
R. Dōan
66'
M
11
D. Maeda
89'
F
D. Maeda
89'
F
14
J. Ito
78'
F
J. Ito
78'
F
18
A. Ueda
F
A. Ueda
F
Bench
20
A. Seko
D
A. Seko
D
7
A. Tanaka
12'
M
A. Tanaka
12'
M
25
J. Suzuki
24'
D
J. Suzuki
24'
D
9
K. Goto
F
K. Goto
F
4
K. Itakura
D
K. Itakura
D
19
Koki Ogawa
1'
F
Koki Ogawa
1'
F
12
K. Osako
G
K. Osako
G
26
K. Shiogai
F
K. Shiogai
F
6
S. Machino
12'
F
S. Machino
12'
F
23
T. Hayakawa
G
T. Hayakawa
G
8
T. Kubo
F
T. Kubo
F
16
T. Watanabe
D
T. Watanabe
D
5
Y. Nagatomo
D
Y. Nagatomo
D
17
Y. Suzuki
M
Y. Suzuki
M
2
Yukinari Sugawara
24'
D
Yukinari Sugawara
24'
D
Best on the pitch
Casemiro
M · Brazil
8.00
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 76 pass
Gabriel Magalhães
D · Brazil
7.90
1 👟
· 135 pass
Marquinhos
D · Brazil
7.90
· 111 pass
T. Tomiyasu
D · Japan
7.70
· 33 pass
Vinícius Júnior
F · Brazil
7.70
2 shots
· 39 pass
K. Sano
M · Japan
7.60
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 32 pass
Brazil — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alisson Becker | G | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 19 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Douglas Santos | D | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 66 | 63% | 2 | — | — |
| Gabriel Magalhães | D | 90 | 7.90 | — | 1 | — | 135 | 130% | — | — | — |
| Marquinhos | D | 90 | 7.90 | — | — | — | 111 | 108% | 2 | — | — |
| Danilo | D | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 74 | 65% | — | 1 | — |
| Lucas Paquetá | M | 45 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 42 | 35% | 2 | — | — |
| Casemiro | M | 89 | 8.00 | 1 | — | 2 | 76 | 68% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Bruno Guimarães | M | 89 | 7.50 | — | 1 | 2 | 49 | 45% | 2 | — | — |
| Vinícius Júnior | F | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | 2 | 39 | 35% | — | — | — |
| Matheus Cunha | F | 66 | 6.20 | — | — | 3 | 17 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
| Rayan | F | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 31 | 28% | 2 | — | — |
| Danilo Santos | M | 1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| Endrick | F | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 8 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Fabinho | M | 8 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Martinelli | F | 24 | 7.50 | 1 | — | 2 | 13 | 13% | — | — | — |
Japan — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z. Suzuki | G | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 29 | 20% | — | — | — |
| H. Ito | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 36 | 28% | — | — | — |
| S. Taniguchi | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 47 | 44% | — | — | — |
| T. Tomiyasu | D | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 33 | 26% | — | — | — |
| Keito Nakamura | M | 66 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 21 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| D. Kamada | M | 78 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 33 | 33% | — | 1 | — |
| K. Sano | M | 90 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 1 | 32 | 29% | — | 1 | — |
| R. Dōan | M | 66 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 17 | 13% | 2 | — | — |
| D. Maeda | F | 89 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 14 | 13% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Ito | F | 78 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 20 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Ueda | F | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 10 | 6% | — | — | — |
| A. Tanaka | M | 12 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 10 | 7% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Suzuki | D | 24 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 5 | 3% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Koki Ogawa | F | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Machino | F | 12 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Yukinari Sugawara | D | 24 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 5 | 2% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Brazil vs Japan?
The final score was Brazil 2–1 Japan.
What did the model predict before Brazil vs Japan?
The model assigned 55% probability to a Brazil win, 25% to a draw, and 19% to an Japan win.