✗Model wrong — prediction Bucaramanga, result Draw
E. Batalla
(ast. L. Pons)
15'
13'
(ast. M. B. Carabali Lopez)
J. Peralta
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Bucaramanga a 68% win probability (draw 19%, Cucuta 11%). The final result was Bucaramanga 1–1 Cucuta. In 1 previous meetings, Bucaramanga have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Cucuta.
Match statistics
19
Total shots
7
9
Shots on target
2
1.71
Actual xG
1.30
1
Saves
8
64%
Possession
36%
3
Corners
1
14
Tackles
10
5
🟨 Yellow cards
5
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
13'
ast. M. B. Carabali Lopez ·
J. Peralta⚽
⚽E. Batalla
· ast. L. Pons
15'
20'
G. Torres
F. Sambueza
22'
C. Romana
27'
29'
(missed pen.)
L. Berdugo⚽
35'
V. Mejia
40'
M. B. Carabali Lopez
46'
Neneco
/
V. Mejia
53'
Y. Abonia
/
G. Torres
53'
S. Tamara
57'
E. M. Duarte Barajas
60'
B. Montano
/
M. B. Carabali Lopez
60'
L. Rios
/
L. Berdugo
F. Hinestroza
61'
Fabry
/ J. Salazar
66'
A. Gutierrez
/ F. Charrupi
67'
67'
S. Mayo
/
S. Tamara
F. Hinestroza
/ B. Caicedo
75'
76'
J. Peralta
L. Flores
/ A. Zarate
80'
90'+5
L. Pons
90'+8
J. Salazar
90'+9
Pre-match prediction
68.87%
Bucaramanga
19.6%
X ←
11.54%
Cucuta
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
19.6%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.96
1.71
-0.25
0.50
1.30
+0.8
Bucaramanga dominated by xG (1.71 vs 1.30).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
25
Cristopher Fiermarín
G
Cristopher Fiermarín
G
8
Freddy Hinestroza
75'
D
Freddy Hinestroza
75'
D
4
José García
D
José García
D
24
José Ortiz
D
José Ortiz
D
23
Carlos Romaña
D
Carlos Romaña
D
19
Aldair Gutiérrez
67'
D
Aldair Gutiérrez
67'
D
17
Emerson Batalla
1 ⚽
M
Emerson Batalla
1 ⚽
M
10
Fabián Sambueza
M
Fabián Sambueza
M
28
Leonardo Flores
80'
M
Leonardo Flores
80'
M
22
Fabry Castro
67'
M
Fabry Castro
67'
M
27
Luciano Pons
1 👟
F
Luciano Pons
1 👟
F
Bench
5
Adrián Murillo
F
Adrián Murillo
F
20
Aldair Zárate
10'
F
Aldair Zárate
10'
F
9
Brandon Caicedo
15'
F
Brandon Caicedo
15'
F
12
Diego Novoa
G
Diego Novoa
G
21
Felix Charrupí
23'
M
Felix Charrupí
23'
M
11
Fredy Salazar
23'
F
Fredy Salazar
23'
F
30
V. Cantillo
M
V. Cantillo
M
12
Federico Abadía
G
Federico Abadía
G
27
Mauricio Duarte
56'
D
Mauricio Duarte
56'
D
17
L. Ochoa
D
L. Ochoa
D
3
Diego Calcaterra
D
Diego Calcaterra
D
33
Sebastián Tamara
67'
D
Sebastián Tamara
67'
D
8
Juan Ceballos
M
Juan Ceballos
M
5
Victor Mejia
45'
M
Victor Mejia
45'
M
21
60'
M
10
Leider Berdugo
60'
M
Leider Berdugo
60'
M
11
Gustavo Torres
53'
M
Gustavo Torres
53'
M
9
Jaime Peralta
1 ⚽
F
Jaime Peralta
1 ⚽
F
Bench
30
Brayan Montaño
30'
D
Brayan Montaño
30'
D
77
Carlos Rentería
45'
M
Carlos Rentería
45'
M
2
Hernán Lópes
D
Hernán Lópes
D
32
Jhonatan Agudelo
F
Jhonatan Agudelo
F
1
Juan David Ramírez
G
Juan David Ramírez
G
29
Lucas Ríos
30'
M
Lucas Ríos
30'
M
23
Samir Mayo
23'
D
Samir Mayo
23'
D
26
Yair Joao Abonia Vasquez
37'
D
Yair Joao Abonia Vasquez
37'
D
Best on the pitch
Emerson Batalla
M · Bucaramanga
8.30
1 ⚽
4 shots
· 27 pass
José García
D · Bucaramanga
7.60
2 shots
· 50 pass
Cristopher Fiermarín
G · Bucaramanga
7.50
· 24 pass
Carlos Rentería
M · Cucuta
7.50
· 3 pass
Jaime Peralta
F · Cucuta
7.50
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 17 pass
Fabián Sambueza
M · Bucaramanga
7.30
6 shots
· 38 pass
Bucaramanga — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristopher Fiermarín | G | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 24 | 18% | — | — | — |
| Freddy Hinestroza | D | 75 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 31 | 21% | — | 1 | — |
| José García | D | 90 | 7.60 | — | — | 2 | 50 | 40% | 3 | — | — |
| José Ortiz | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 58 | 51% | — | — | — |
| Carlos Romaña | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 38 | 33% | 6 | 1 | — |
| Aldair Gutiérrez | D | 67 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 17 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Emerson Batalla | M | 90 | 8.30 | 1 | — | 4 | 27 | 17% | 2 | — | — |
| Fabián Sambueza | M | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | 6 | 38 | 32% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Leonardo Flores | M | 80 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 45 | 34% | 1 | — | — |
| Fabry Castro | M | 67 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 26 | 22% | — | — | — |
| Luciano Pons | F | 90 | 6.30 | — | 1 | 2 | 15 | 11% | — | 1 | — |
| Aldair Zárate | F | 10 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Brandon Caicedo | F | 15 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Felix Charrupí | M | 23 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 12 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Fredy Salazar | F | 23 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 13 | 13% | 1 | 1 | — |
Cucuta — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federico Abadía | G | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 30 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Mauricio Duarte | D | 56 | 5.20 | — | — | 1 | 20 | 13% | — | — | 1 |
| L. Ochoa | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 15 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
| Diego Calcaterra | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 18 | 15% | — | — | — |
| Sebastián Tamara | D | 67 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 32 | 22% | — | 1 | — |
| Juan Ceballos | M | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 35 | 28% | — | — | — |
| Victor Mejia | M | 45 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 16 | 15% | 3 | 1 | — |
| M | 60 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 12 | 11% | 1 | 1 | — | |
| Leider Berdugo | M | 60 | 6.00 | — | — | 3 | 20 | 15% | — | — | — |
| Gustavo Torres | M | 53 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 3% | — | 1 | — |
| Jaime Peralta | F | 90 | 7.50 | 1 | — | 2 | 17 | 14% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Brayan Montaño | D | 30 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — |
| Carlos Rentería | M | 45 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Lucas Ríos | M | 30 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 6 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Samir Mayo | D | 23 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | 2 | — | — |
| Yair Joao Abonia Vasquez | D | 37 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 3 | 1% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Bucaramanga vs Cucuta?
The final score was Bucaramanga 1–1 Cucuta.
What did the model predict before Bucaramanga vs Cucuta?
The model assigned 68% probability to a Bucaramanga win, 19% to a draw, and 11% to an Cucuta win.