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Bulgaria - Estonia

UEFA Nations League September 29, 2026 20:45 Denka Big Swan Stadium, Niigata
Bulgaria
#3 · 0 pts
vs
Estonia
#4 · 0 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
86.9%
Win
Bulgaria
6.91%
Draw
6.18%
Win
Estonia
4.17
Expected xG
0.92
Most likely outcome
Bulgaria
86.9%
Probability
100.0%
1X2 accuracy · 2 predictions (3 months)

Market probabilities

Most likely result 4–0 (8.26%)
1X2 Result
1 87%
X 7%
2 6%
Double Chance
1X 94%
X2 13%
12 93%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 93%
Over 2.5 84%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Bulgaria a 86% win probability, against 6% for a draw and 6% for Estonia. Expected goals are 4.2 for Bulgaria and 0.9 for Estonia (total 5.1), with a 93% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 4–0 at 8.26% probability.

Season Stats

Bulgaria
2W 3D 3L
Estonia
1W 1D 4L
Averages per game
0.6
Goals
0.5
1.2
Conceded
1.5
3.5
Shots OT
1.7
2.9
Corners
1.8
51%
Poss.
34%
Percentages
50%
O 1.5
50%
38%
O 2.5
50%
38%
BTTS
17%
50%
Clean Sht
17%
ℹ Based on the last 8 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
0%
O 3.5
25%
BTTS
Bulgaria
1W 2D 1L · at home
Estonia
0W 1D 2L · away
0.8
gls/g
0.0
0.8
Conceded
1.3
25%
Win %
0%
75%
Win or Draw
33%
50%
O 1.5
33%
25%
O 2.5
33%
0%
O 3.5
0%
50%
BTTS
0%
50%
Clean Sht
33%
25%
Failed to Score
100%
last 4
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Bulgaria Estonia →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% — —
1 2.6% 2.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% —
2 5.3% 4.9% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2% —
3 7.4% 6.8% 3.2% 1.0% 0.2% —
4 7.8% 7.1% 3.3% 1.0% 0.2% —
5 6.5% 6.0% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2% —

Recent form

Bulgaria Bulgaria
L Rep. Of Ireland 2–1
L Rep. Of Ireland 1–2
D Belarus 1–1
W Luxembourg 0–1
L Northern Ireland 5–0
Estonia Estonia
L Slovakia 1–0
D Azerbaijan 0–0
L Sweden 0–3
W Azerbaijan 3–1
L Sweden 3–0

Playing profile

Bulgaria Bulgaria
Attack
35
Defence
60
Form
31
Estonia Estonia
Attack
16
Defence
49
Form
2
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

UEFA Nations League , League C, Group 4

# Team G Pts
1 Luxembourg Luxembourg 0 0
2 Iceland Iceland 0 0
3 Bulgaria Bulgaria 0 0
4 Estonia Estonia 0 0

What's at stake · UEFA Nations League , League C, Group 4

Top 2 advance to the next round

Bulgaria Estonia
Current #3 #4
→ Bulgaria #1 #4
→ Draw #1 #2
→ Estonia #4 #1

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Bulgaria vs Estonia?
The model gives Bulgaria a 86% win probability, 6% for a draw, and 6% for an Estonia win.
How many goals are expected in Bulgaria vs Estonia?
Expected goals: Bulgaria 4.2, Estonia 0.9 (total 5.1). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 93%.
What is the most likely score in Bulgaria vs Estonia?
4–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 8.26%.