Bulgaria - Luxembourg
Weather at kick-off
☁️
Overcast
28.5°C
💨 20 km/h
🌧️ 50%
· Niigata
⚡ Pre-match analysis
53.6%
Win
Bulgaria
19.81%
Draw
26.59%
Win
Luxembourg
2.32
1.56
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
2–1
(8.7%)
1X2 Result
1
54%
X
20%
2
27%
Double Chance
1X
73%
X2
46%
12
80%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
91%
Over 2.5
83%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Bulgaria a 53% win probability, against 19% for a draw and 26% for Luxembourg. Expected goals are 2.3 for Bulgaria and 1.6 for Luxembourg (total 3.9), with a 90% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–1 at 8.7% probability. In 2 previous meetings, Bulgaria have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Luxembourg.
Season Stats
2W
3D
3L
2W
3D
3L
Averages per game
0.6
Goals
1.0
1.2
Conceded
0.9
3.5
Shots OT
2.6
2.9
Corners
3.4
51%
Poss.
59%
Percentages
50%
O 1.5
63%
38%
O 2.5
25%
38%
BTTS
25%
50%
Clean Sht
38%
ℹ
Based on the last 8 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Venue Form
Goals signal (venue avg)
0%
O 3.5
38%
BTTS
1W
2D
1L
· at home
1W
2D
1L
· away
0.8
gls/g
0.8
0.8
Conceded
0.8
25%
Win %
25%
75%
Win or Draw
75%
50%
O 1.5
75%
25%
O 2.5
0%
0%
O 3.5
0%
50%
BTTS
25%
50%
Clean Sht
50%
25%
Failed to Score
50%
last 4
ℹ
Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.
Score Matrix
↕ Bulgaria
Luxembourg →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 4.8% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| 2 | 5.6% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 4.3% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 5 | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Recent form
Playing profile
Bulgaria
Attack
35
Defence
60
Form
31
Luxembourg
Attack
25
Defence
75
Form
56
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
UEFA Nations League , League C, Group 4
| # | Team | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Luxembourg
|
0 | 0 |
| 2 |
Iceland
|
0 | 0 |
| 3 |
Bulgaria
|
0 | 0 |
| 4 |
Estonia
|
0 | 0 |
What's at stake · UEFA Nations League , League C, Group 4
Top 2 advance to the next round
| Current | #3 | #1 |
| → Bulgaria | #1 | #2 |
| → Draw | #2 | #1 |
| → Luxembourg | #3 | #1 |
Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Bulgaria vs Luxembourg?
The model gives Bulgaria a 53% win probability, 19% for a draw, and 26% for an Luxembourg win.
How many goals are expected in Bulgaria vs Luxembourg?
Expected goals: Bulgaria 2.3, Luxembourg 1.6 (total 3.9). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 90%.
What is the most likely score in Bulgaria vs Luxembourg?
2–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 8.7%.