Burkina Faso - Mauritania
Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.
November 11, 2026 18:00
⚡ Pre-match analysis
30.63%
Win
Burkina Faso
34.13%
Draw
35.24%
Win
Mauritania
0.71
0.85
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–0
(14.55%)
1X2 Result
1
31%
X
34%
2
35%
Double Chance
1X
65%
X2
69%
12
66%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
79%
✓ 77.1% hit rate (48 picks)
Over 2.5
56%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Mauritania a 35% win probability, against 34% for a draw and 30% for Burkina Faso. Expected goals are 0.7 for Burkina Faso and 0.8 for Mauritania (total 1.6), with a 78% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 14.55% probability.
Season Stats
1W
1D
0L
1W
0D
1L
Averages per game
1.0
Goals
2.0
0.5
Conceded
1.5
2.0
Shots OT
5.5
7.0
Corners
3.0
59%
Poss.
57%
Percentages
50%
O 1.5
100%
0%
O 2.5
100%
50%
BTTS
100%
50%
Clean Sht
0%
ℹ
Based on the last 2 matches in Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Score Matrix
↕ Burkina Faso
Mauritania →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.2% | 17.9% | 7.6% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 15.0% | 12.6% | 5.3% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 5.3% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | — |
| 3 | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | — | — |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | — | — | — |
| 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
Burkina Faso
Attack
24
Defence
54
Form
33
Mauritania
Attack
40
Defence
63
Form
40
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Group F
| # | Team | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Benin
|
2 | 4 |
| 2 |
Burkina Faso
|
2 | 4 |
| 3 |
Mauritania
|
2 | 3 |
| 4 |
Central African Republic
|
2 | 0 |
What's at stake · Group F
Top 2 advance to the next round
| Current | #2 | #3 |
| → Burkina Faso | #1 | #3 |
| → Draw | #1 | #3 |
| → Mauritania | #3 | #1 |
Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Burkina Faso vs Mauritania?
The model gives Burkina Faso a 30% win probability, 34% for a draw, and 35% for an Mauritania win.
How many goals are expected in Burkina Faso vs Mauritania?
Expected goals: Burkina Faso 0.7, Mauritania 0.8 (total 1.6). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 78%.
What is the most likely score in Burkina Faso vs Mauritania?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 14.55%.