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Championship · Regular Season - 10 October 13, 2026 20:45 Turf Moor, Burnley
Burnley
#22 · 8 pts
2 – 2
Final score
Charlton
#19 · 14 pts
Jacob Bruun Larsen (ast. Josh Laurent) 36'
Largie Ramazani (ast. Igor Júlio) 57'
50' (ast. Lloyd Jones) Kayne Ramsay
90'+6 (ast. Harvey Knibbs) Ivan Mesik
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Burnley a 42% win probability (draw 31%, Charlton 25%). The final result was Burnley 2–2 Charlton.

Match statistics
18
Total shots
9
4
Shots on target
5
1.13
Actual xG
2.14
2
Saves
2
46%
Possession
54%
7
Corners
7
15
Tackles
24
2
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
⚽Jacob Bruun Larsen · ast. Josh Laurent
36'
50'
ast. Lloyd Jones · Kayne Ramsay⚽
⚽Largie Ramazani · ast. Igor Júlio
57'
62'
Conor Coventry
Igor Júlio
66'
↕ Jamie Vardy / Armando Broja
71'
↕ Jacob Bruun Larsen / Marcus Edwards
71'
74'
Harvey Knibbs / Dan McNamara ↕
74'
Micah Mbick / Miles Leaburn ↕
75'
Ivan Mesik / Amari Bell ↕
75'
Charlie Kelman / Oliver Skipp ↕
↕ Largie Ramazani / Andréas Hountondji
80'
86'
Millenic Alli / Tyreece Campbell ↕
Max Alleyne
90'+4
90'+6
ast. Harvey Knibbs · Ivan Mesik⚽
↕ Anel Ahmedhodzic / Hjalmar Ekdal
90'
Pre-match prediction
42.93%
Burnley
31.39%
X ←
25.68%
Charlton
we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 31.39% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Burnley
1.23
1.13
-0.1
Charlton
0.72
2.14
+1.42
Charlton dominated by xG (2.14 vs 1.13). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 12 25
2 Swansea Swansea 12 23
3 West Ham West Ham 12 22
4 Wolves Wolves 12 21
5 West Brom West Brom 12 21
6 Southampton Southampton 12 20
7 Birmingham Birmingham 12 20
8 QPR QPR 12 20
9 Stoke City Stoke City 12 20
10 Blackburn Blackburn 12 18
11 Portsmouth Portsmouth 12 18
12 Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 12 16
13 Millwall Millwall 12 15
14 Bristol City Bristol City 12 15
15 Lincoln Lincoln 12 15
16 Cardiff Cardiff 12 14
17 Wrexham Wrexham 12 14
18 Bolton Bolton 12 14
19 Charlton Charlton 12 14
20 Norwich Norwich 12 12
21 Watford Watford 12 11
22 Burnley Burnley 12 8
23 Derby Derby 12 7
24 Preston Preston 12 5
Lineups
Burnley Burnley 4-2-3-1
37 G. Coudert G. Coudert G 6.08
23 Lucas Pires Lucas Pires D 6.22
44 Igor Igor 1 👟 D 6.78
15 A. Ahmedhodžić A. Ahmedhodžić 89' D 6.45
2 K. Walker K. Walker D 6.56
5 R. Hatate R. Hatate M 6.26
3 Max Alleyne Max Alleyne M 6.60
7 J. Bruun Larsen J. Bruun Larsen 1 ⚽ 71' M 7.30
29 J. Laurent J. Laurent 1 👟 M 6.78
19 L. Ramazani L. Ramazani 1 ⚽ 80' M 7.70
9 J. Vardy J. Vardy 71' F 6.65
Bench
27 A. Broja A. Broja 19' F 6.12
17 A. Hountondji A. Hountondji 10' F 6.52
14 C. Roberts C. Roberts D 0.00
18 H. Ekdal H. Ekdal 1' D 0.00
30 L. Castell L. Castell F 0.00
10 M. Edwards M. Edwards 19' F 6.98
1 M. Weiß M. Weiß G 0.00
22 O. Sonne O. Sonne D 0.00
8 U. Raghouber U. Raghouber M 0.00
Charlton Charlton 4-2-3-1
13 A. Okonkwo A. Okonkwo G 5.92
17 A. Bell A. Bell 75' D 6.40
12 Billy Dawson Koumetio Billy Dawson Koumetio D 6.05
5 L. Jones L. Jones 1 👟 D 7.21
2 K. Ramsay K. Ramsay 1 ⚽ D 7.31
6 C. Coventry C. Coventry M 6.32
34 O. Skipp O. Skipp 75' M 6.15
7 T. Campbell T. Campbell 86' M 6.39
9 K. Ahearne-Grant K. Ahearne-Grant M 5.83
20 D. McNamara D. McNamara 74' M 6.60
11 M. Leaburn M. Leaburn 74' F 6.75
Bench
32 A. Mwamba A. Mwamba D 0.00
23 C. Kelman C. Kelman 15' F 6.48
8 H. Knibbs H. Knibbs 1 👟 16' M 6.23
18 I. Mesík I. Mesík 1 ⚽ 15' D 7.53
19 M. Alli M. Alli 4' F 6.87
33 Micah Mbick Micah Mbick 16' F 6.53
14 S. Carey S. Carey M 0.00
44 Tyler Bindon Tyler Bindon D 0.00
25 W. Mannion W. Mannion G 0.00
Best on the pitch
L. Ramazani
L. Ramazani
M · Burnley
7.70
1 ⚽
4 shots · 21 pass
I. Mesík
I. Mesík
D · Charlton
7.53
1 ⚽
1 shots · 3 pass
K. Ramsay
K. Ramsay
D · Charlton
7.31
1 ⚽
1 shots · 41 pass
J. Bruun Larsen
J. Bruun Larsen
M · Burnley
7.30
1 ⚽
3 shots · 24 pass
L. Jones
L. Jones
D · Charlton
7.21
1 👟
1 shots · 51 pass
M. Edwards
M. Edwards
F · Burnley
6.98
2 shots · 12 pass
Burnley Burnley — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G. Coudert G 90 6.08 — — 0 18 5% 0 — —
Lucas Pires D 90 6.22 — — 0 37 27% 2 — —
Igor D 90 6.78 — 1 0 35 30% 2 1 —
A. Ahmedhodžić D 89 6.45 — — 1 33 27% 1 — —
K. Walker D 90 6.56 — — 0 53 40% 1 — —
R. Hatate M 90 6.26 — — 4 44 33% 0 — —
Max Alleyne M 90 6.60 — — 1 62 53% 1 1 —
J. Bruun Larsen M 71 7.30 1 — 3 24 15% 0 — —
J. Laurent M 90 6.78 — 1 1 28 20% 2 — —
L. Ramazani M 80 7.70 1 — 4 21 16% 2 — —
J. Vardy F 71 6.65 — — 1 3 1% 2 — —
A. Broja F 19 6.12 — — 0 5 4% 1 — —
A. Hountondji F 10 6.52 — — 1 1 1% 0 — —
H. Ekdal D 1 0.00 — — 0 0 0% 1 — —
M. Edwards F 19 6.98 — — 2 12 9% 0 — —
Charlton Charlton — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
A. Okonkwo G 90 5.92 — — 0 44 24% 0 — —
A. Bell D 75 6.40 — — 0 31 25% 2 — —
Billy Dawson Koumetio D 90 6.05 — — 1 60 49% 4 — —
L. Jones D 90 7.21 — 1 1 51 50% 0 — —
K. Ramsay D 90 7.31 1 — 1 41 35% 5 — —
C. Coventry M 90 6.32 — — 0 63 53% 2 1 —
O. Skipp M 75 6.15 — — 0 33 25% 5 — —
T. Campbell M 86 6.39 — — 0 25 22% 1 — —
K. Ahearne-Grant M 90 5.83 — — 2 31 26% 0 — —
D. McNamara M 74 6.60 — — 0 26 22% 0 — —
M. Leaburn F 74 6.75 — — 1 15 7% 1 — —
C. Kelman F 15 6.48 — — 0 3 2% 0 — —
H. Knibbs M 16 6.23 — 1 1 1 1% 2 — —
I. Mesík D 15 7.53 1 — 1 3 3% 1 — —
M. Alli F 4 6.87 — — 0 2 2% 0 — —
Micah Mbick F 16 6.53 — — 1 3 2% 1 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Burnley vs Charlton?
The final score was Burnley 2–2 Charlton.
What did the model predict before Burnley vs Charlton?
The model assigned 42% probability to a Burnley win, 31% to a draw, and 25% to an Charlton win.