✓Model correct — prediction Manchester City
5'
(ast. J. Doku)
E. Haaland
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Manchester City a 75% win probability (draw 15%, Burnley 8%). The final result was Burnley 0–1 Manchester City. In 1 previous meetings, Burnley have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Manchester City.
Match statistics
5
Total shots
17
1
Shots on target
9
0.57
Actual xG
3.15
8
Saves
1
35%
Possession
65%
3
Corners
11
23
Tackles
10
Match Events
5'
ast. J. Doku ·
E. Haaland⚽
65'
Nico
/
R. Ait-Nouri
65'
Savinho
/
A. Semenyo
L. Tchaouna
/ L. Foster
72'
Z. Flemming
/ A. Broja
82'
B. Humphreys
/ Florentino
82'
J. Laurent
/ M. Edwards
87'
J. Anthony
/ M. Tresor Ndayishimiye
87'
Pre-match prediction
8.9%
Burnley
15.27%
X
75.83%
Manchester ←
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Manchester City)
75.83%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.79
0.57
-0.22
2.70
3.15
+0.45
Manchester City dominated by xG (3.15 vs 0.57).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
1
G
3
Quilindschy Hartman
D
Quilindschy Hartman
D
5
Maxime Estève
D
Maxime Estève
D
18
D
12
Bashir Humphreys
82'
D
Bashir Humphreys
82'
D
2
K. Walker
D
K. Walker
D
11
Jaidon Anthony
87'
M
Jaidon Anthony
87'
M
29
J. Laurent
87'
M
J. Laurent
87'
M
20
James Ward-Prowse
M
James Ward-Prowse
M
17
Loum Tchaouna
72'
M
Loum Tchaouna
72'
M
19
Z. Flemming
82'
F
Z. Flemming
82'
F
Bench
27
Armando Broja
13'
F
16
Florentino Luís
13'
M
Florentino Luís
13'
M
8
Lesley Ugochukwu
M
Lesley Ugochukwu
M
9
L. Foster
23'
F
L. Foster
23'
F
23
Lucas Pires
D
Lucas Pires
D
10
Marcus Edwards
8'
F
Marcus Edwards
8'
F
25
Gianluigi Donnarumma
G
Gianluigi Donnarumma
G
21
Rayan Aït-Nouri
65'
D
Rayan Aït-Nouri
65'
D
15
M. Guéhi
D
M. Guéhi
D
45
D
27
Matheus Nunes
D
Matheus Nunes
D
33
Nico O'Reilly
M
Nico O'Reilly
M
20
Bernardo Silva
M
Bernardo Silva
M
11
J. Doku
1 👟
M
J. Doku
1 👟
M
10
R. Cherki
M
R. Cherki
M
42
A. Semenyo
65'
M
A. Semenyo
65'
M
9
E. Haaland
1 ⚽
F
E. Haaland
1 ⚽
F
Bench
8
Mateo Kovačić
M
Mateo Kovačić
M
6
Nathan Aké
D
Nathan Aké
D
14
Nico González
30'
M
Nico González
30'
M
7
Omar Marmoush
F
Omar Marmoush
F
47
P. Foden
M
P. Foden
M
4
T. Reijnders
M
T. Reijnders
M
Best on the pitch
G · Burnley
9.70
· 41 pass
E. Haaland
F · Manchester
7.70
1 ⚽
4 shots
· 12 pass
R. Cherki
M · Manchester
7.70
4 shots
· 79 pass
D · Manchester
7.60
· 83 pass
Matheus Nunes
D · Manchester
7.30
· 89 pass
James Ward-Prowse
M · Burnley
7.30
· 39 pass
Burnley — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 95 | 9.70 | — | — | — | 41 | 28% | — | — | — | |
| Quilindschy Hartman | D | 95 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 32 | 20% | 10 | — | — |
| Maxime Estève | D | 95 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 38 | 34% | 1 | — | — |
| D | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 40 | 33% | 1 | — | — | |
| Bashir Humphreys | D | 82 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 46 | 38% | — | — | — |
| K. Walker | D | 95 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 35 | 25% | 2 | — | — |
| Jaidon Anthony | M | 87 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 20 | 17% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Laurent | M | 87 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 25 | 23% | 2 | — | — |
| James Ward-Prowse | M | 95 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 39 | 34% | 4 | — | — |
| Loum Tchaouna | M | 72 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 16 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Z. Flemming | F | 82 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 8 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Armando Broja | F | 13 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Florentino Luís | M | 13 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 5 | 3% | — | — | — |
| L. Foster | F | 23 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1% | 1 | — | — |
| Marcus Edwards | F | 8 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
Manchester City — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gianluigi Donnarumma | G | 95 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 20 | 18% | — | — | — |
| Rayan Aït-Nouri | D | 65 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 38 | 37% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Guéhi | D | 95 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 82 | 78% | — | — | — |
| D | 95 | 7.60 | — | — | — | 83 | 78% | 1 | — | — | |
| Matheus Nunes | D | 95 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 89 | 83% | 1 | — | — |
| Nico O'Reilly | M | 95 | 7.00 | — | — | 4 | 51 | 44% | — | — | — |
| Bernardo Silva | M | 95 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 92 | 78% | 3 | — | — |
| J. Doku | M | 95 | 6.60 | — | 1 | 1 | 49 | 38% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Cherki | M | 95 | 7.70 | — | — | 4 | 79 | 71% | — | — | — |
| A. Semenyo | M | 65 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 35 | 34% | 1 | — | — |
| E. Haaland | F | 95 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 4 | 12 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Nico González | M | 30 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 30 | 28% | 2 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Burnley vs Manchester City?
The final score was Burnley 0–1 Manchester City.
What did the model predict before Burnley vs Manchester City?
The model assigned 8% probability to a Burnley win, 15% to a draw, and 75% to an Manchester City win.