U. Raghouber
(ast. Z. Amdouni)
54'
23'
(ast. S. Berhalter)
A. Morris
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Burnley a 35% win probability (draw 30%, Middlesbrough 33%). The final result was Burnley 1–1 Middlesbrough.
Match statistics
3
Shots on target
2
0.64
Actual xG
1.22
43%
Possession
57%
5
Corners
1
Match Events
23'
ast. S. Berhalter ·
A. Morris⚽
H. Mejbri
28'
39'
W. Lankshear
A. Hountondji
/ L. Ramazani
46'
H. Mejbri
/ M. Alleyne
46'
⚽U. Raghouber
· ast. Z. Amdouni
54'
61'
T. Conway
/
R. McGree
61'
L. Castledine
/
K. Joseph
71'
A. Jones
Z. Amdouni
/ A. Ramsey
71'
74'
A. Phillips
/
A. Jones
J. Bruun Larsen
/ A. Broja
77'
D. Satpaev
/ M. Tresor Ndayishimiye
81'
87'
D. Strelec
/
W. Lankshear
U. Raghouber
90'+1
Pre-match prediction
35.52%
Burnley
30.63%
X ←
33.85%
Middlesbrough
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
30.63%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.25
0.64
-1.61
1.85
1.22
-0.63
Middlesbrough dominated by xG (1.22 vs 0.64).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Burnley vs Middlesbrough?
The final score was Burnley 1–1 Middlesbrough.
What did the model predict before Burnley vs Middlesbrough?
The model assigned 35% probability to a Burnley win, 30% to a draw, and 33% to an Middlesbrough win.