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Burnley - Notts County

EFL Cup August 08, 2026 16:00 Turf Moor, Burnley
Weather at kick-off Partly cloudy 19.7°C 💨 7 km/h 🌧️ 33% · Burnley
⚡ Pre-match analysis
28.15%
Win
Burnley
32.5%
Draw
39.35%
Win
Notts County
0.72
Expected xG
1.1

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–1 (13.4%)
1X2 Result
1 28%
X 33%
2 39%
Double Chance
1X 61%
X2 72%
12 68%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 78%
Over 2.5 63%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Notts County a 39% win probability, against 32% for a draw and 28% for Burnley. Expected goals are 0.7 for Burnley and 1.1 for Notts County (total 1.8), with a 78% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 13.4% probability.

Season Stats

Burnley
1W 0D 1L
Notts County
0W 0D 1L
Averages per game
1.5
Goals
0.0
1.5
Conceded
1.0
6.5
Shots OT
3.0
3.5
Corners
6.0
51%
Poss.
64%
Percentages
100%
O 1.5
0%
100%
O 2.5
0%
100%
BTTS
0%
0%
Clean Sht
0%
Based on the last 2 matches in EFL Cup. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
0%
O 3.5
50%
BTTS
Burnley
1W 0D 1L · at home
Notts County
0W 0D 1L · away
1.5
gls/g
0.0
1.5
Conceded
1.0
50%
Win %
0%
50%
Win or Draw
0%
100%
O 1.5
0%
100%
O 2.5
0%
0%
O 3.5
0%
100%
BTTS
0%
0%
Clean Sht
0%
0%
Failed to Score
100%
last 2
Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Burnley Notts County →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 16.2% 17.8% 9.8% 3.6% 1.0% 0.2%
1 11.6% 12.8% 7.1% 2.6% 0.7% 0.2%
2 4.2% 4.6% 2.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
3 1.0% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
4 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
5

Recent form

L Cardiff 1–2
W Derby 2–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 16%
L Wigan 1–0
Away clean sheet (120 days) 39%

Playing profile

Burnley Burnley
Attack
27
Defence
44
Form
37
Notts County Notts County
Attack
31
Defence
71
Form
53
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Burnley vs Notts County?
The model gives Burnley a 28% win probability, 32% for a draw, and 39% for an Notts County win.
How many goals are expected in Burnley vs Notts County?
Expected goals: Burnley 0.7, Notts County 1.1 (total 1.8). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 78%.
What is the most likely score in Burnley vs Notts County?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 13.4%.