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Championship · Regular Season - 11 October 16, 2026 21:00 Turf Moor, Burnley
Burnley
#22 · 8 pts
1 – 2
Final score
Wolves
#4 · 21 pts
Jamie Vardy (ast. Jacob Bruun Larsen) 20'
39' (ast. Sean Neave) Fer López
72' (ast. Mateus Mane) Tawanda Chirewa
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Wolves a 37% win probability (draw 29%, Burnley 33%). The final result was Burnley 1–2 Wolves. In 2 previous meetings, Burnley have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Wolves.

Match statistics
15
Total shots
20
4
Shots on target
8
1.04
Actual xG
1.85
5
Saves
3
47%
Possession
53%
3
Corners
6
21
Tackles
17
2
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
⚽Jamie Vardy · ast. Jacob Bruun Larsen
20'
39'
ast. Sean Neave · Fer López⚽
61'
Mateus Mane / Jean-Ricner Bellegarde ↕
↕ Jamie Vardy / Armando Broja
61'
↕ Jacob Bruun Larsen / Dastan Satpaev
61'
Reo Hatate
63'
70'
Sean Neave
71'
Thomas Doyle / Fer López ↕
72'
Tawanda Chirewa / Sean Neave ↕
72'
ast. Mateus Mane · Tawanda Chirewa⚽
↕ Reo Hatate / Marcus Edwards
75'
87'
Ladislav Krejčí / Ghislain Konan ↕
87'
Hugo Bueno / Rafiki Said Ahamada ↕
↕ Max Alleyne / Ugo Raghouber
87'
Kyle Walker
90'
Pre-match prediction
33.95%
Burnley
29.0%
X
37.05%
Wolves ←
we assigned to the actual result (Wolves) 37.05% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Burnley
1.33
1.04
-0.29
Wolves
1.44
1.85
+0.41
Wolves dominated by xG (1.85 vs 1.04). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 12 25
2 Swansea Swansea 12 23
3 West Ham West Ham 12 22
4 Wolves Wolves 12 21
5 West Brom West Brom 12 21
6 Southampton Southampton 12 20
7 Birmingham Birmingham 12 20
8 QPR QPR 12 20
9 Stoke City Stoke City 12 20
10 Blackburn Blackburn 12 18
11 Portsmouth Portsmouth 12 18
12 Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 12 16
13 Millwall Millwall 12 15
14 Bristol City Bristol City 12 15
15 Lincoln Lincoln 12 15
16 Cardiff Cardiff 12 14
17 Wrexham Wrexham 12 14
18 Bolton Bolton 12 14
19 Charlton Charlton 12 14
20 Norwich Norwich 12 12
21 Watford Watford 12 11
22 Burnley Burnley 12 8
23 Derby Derby 12 7
24 Preston Preston 12 5
Lineups
Burnley Burnley 4-2-3-1
37 G. Coudert G. Coudert G 6.76
23 Lucas Pires Lucas Pires D 6.53
44 Igor Igor D 6.57
18 H. Ekdal H. Ekdal D 6.06
2 K. Walker K. Walker D 6.43
5 R. Hatate R. Hatate 75' M 6.39
3 Max Alleyne Max Alleyne 87' M 6.08
7 J. Bruun Larsen J. Bruun Larsen 1 👟 61' M 7.70
29 J. Laurent J. Laurent M 6.28
19 L. Ramazani L. Ramazani M 6.45
9 J. Vardy J. Vardy 1 ⚽ 61' F 7.64
Bench
27 A. Broja A. Broja 29' F 6.20
17 A. Hountondji A. Hountondji F 0.00
14 C. Roberts C. Roberts D 0.00
12 D. Satpaev D. Satpaev 29' F 6.91
30 L. Castell L. Castell F 0.00
10 M. Edwards M. Edwards 15' F 6.68
1 M. Weiß M. Weiß G 0.00
22 O. Sonne O. Sonne D 0.00
8 U. Raghouber U. Raghouber 3' M 6.00
Wolves Wolves 4-2-3-1
1 José Sá José Sá G 6.54
33 G. Konan G. Konan 87' D 6.94
24 Toti Gomes Toti Gomes D 6.77
34 N. Djiga N. Djiga D 6.70
38 J. Tchatchoua J. Tchatchoua D 7.13
7 André André M 6.50
5 M. Munetsi M. Munetsi M 6.67
19 R. Saïd R. Saïd 87' M 6.57
28 Fer López Fer López 1 ⚽ 71' M 7.83
27 J. Bellegarde J. Bellegarde 61' M 6.44
14 S. Neave S. Neave 1 👟 72' F 7.19
Bench
3 Hugo Bueno Hugo Bueno 3' D 6.26
8 J. James J. James M 0.00
13 João Virgínia João Virgínia G 0.00
2 K. Trippier K. Trippier D 0.00
37 L. Krejčí L. Krejčí 3' D 6.16
36 M. Mane M. Mane 1 👟 29' F 7.38
23 T. Chirewa T. Chirewa 1 ⚽ 18' F 7.64
20 T. Doyle T. Doyle 19' M 7.03
15 Y. Mosquera Y. Mosquera D 0.00
Best on the pitch
Fer López
Fer López
M · Wolves
7.83
1 ⚽
2 shots · 35 pass
J. Bruun Larsen
J. Bruun Larsen
M · Burnley
7.70
1 👟
2 shots · 31 pass
T. Chirewa
T. Chirewa
F · Wolves
7.64
1 ⚽
1 shots · 8 pass
J. Vardy
J. Vardy
F · Burnley
7.64
1 ⚽
4 shots · 11 pass
M. Mane
M. Mane
F · Wolves
7.38
1 👟
1 shots · 11 pass
S. Neave
S. Neave
F · Wolves
7.19
1 👟
1 shots · 13 pass
Burnley Burnley — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G. Coudert G 90 6.76 — — 0 27 13% 0 — —
Lucas Pires D 90 6.53 — — 4 33 28% 4 — —
Igor D 90 6.57 — — 1 66 58% 3 — —
H. Ekdal D 90 6.06 — — 0 59 51% 2 — —
K. Walker D 90 6.43 — — 0 45 40% 3 1 —
R. Hatate M 75 6.39 — — 0 28 24% 2 1 —
Max Alleyne M 87 6.08 — — 0 32 27% 1 — —
J. Bruun Larsen M 61 7.70 — 1 2 31 28% 0 — —
J. Laurent M 90 6.28 — — 2 39 29% 2 — —
L. Ramazani M 90 6.45 — — 2 30 23% 1 — —
J. Vardy F 61 7.64 1 — 4 11 9% 0 — —
A. Broja F 29 6.20 — — 0 4 3% 0 — —
D. Satpaev F 29 6.91 — — 0 9 9% 1 — —
M. Edwards F 15 6.68 — — 0 9 6% 2 — —
U. Raghouber M 3 6.00 — — 0 4 3% 0 — —
Wolves Wolves — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
José Sá G 90 6.54 — — 0 26 19% 0 — —
G. Konan D 87 6.94 — — 1 43 37% 2 — —
Toti Gomes D 90 6.77 — — 0 95 89% 1 — —
N. Djiga D 90 6.70 — — 1 91 85% 0 — —
J. Tchatchoua D 90 7.13 — — 1 31 26% 2 — —
André M 90 6.50 — — 0 45 42% 1 — —
M. Munetsi M 90 6.67 — — 2 33 29% 4 — —
R. Saïd M 87 6.57 — — 4 16 9% 2 — —
Fer López M 71 7.83 1 — 2 35 26% 2 — —
J. Bellegarde M 61 6.44 — — 2 19 16% 0 — —
S. Neave F 72 7.19 — 1 1 13 11% 0 1 —
Hugo Bueno D 3 6.26 — — 0 2 2% 0 — —
L. Krejčí D 3 6.16 — — 1 1 1% 0 — —
M. Mane F 29 7.38 — 1 1 11 10% 2 — —
T. Chirewa F 18 7.64 1 — 1 8 6% 1 — —
T. Doyle M 19 7.03 — — 3 11 9% 0 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Burnley vs Wolves?
The final score was Burnley 1–2 Wolves.
What did the model predict before Burnley vs Wolves?
The model assigned 33% probability to a Burnley win, 29% to a draw, and 37% to an Wolves win.