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Burton Albion - Derby

Friendlies Clubs August 01, 2026 16:00
Burton Albion
vs
Derby
⚡ Pre-match analysis
30.16%
Win
Burton Albion
34.23%
Draw
35.6%
Win
Derby
0.3
Expected xG
0.91

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–1 (10.47%)
1X2 Result
1 30%
X 34%
2 36%
Double Chance
1X 64%
X2 70%
12 66%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 75%
Over 2.5 52%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Derby a 35% win probability, against 34% for a draw and 30% for Burton Albion. Expected goals are 0.3 for Burton Albion and 0.9 for Derby (total 1.2), with a 75% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 10.47% probability.

Season Stats

Burton Albion
0W 2D 2L
Derby
1W 0D 2L
Averages per game
0.2
Goals
1.3
1.2
Conceded
1.7
Percentages
50%
O 1.5
100%
25%
O 2.5
67%
25%
BTTS
67%
25%
Clean Sht
33%
ℹ Based on the last 4 matches in Friendlies Clubs. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
25%
O 3.5
25%
BTTS
Burton Albion
0W 0D 2L · at home
Derby
1W 0D 1L · away
0.0
gls/g
1.5
2.0
Conceded
1.5
0%
Win %
50%
0%
Win or Draw
50%
50%
O 1.5
100%
50%
O 2.5
50%
0%
O 3.5
50%
0%
BTTS
50%
0%
Clean Sht
50%
100%
Failed to Score
0%
last 2
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Burton Albion Derby →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 29.9% 27.1% 12.3% 3.7% 0.8% 0.2%
1 9.0% 8.1% 3.7% 1.1% 0.3% —
2 1.3% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% — —
3 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% — — —
4 — — — — — —
5 — — — — — —

Recent form

Burton Albion Burton Albion
D Solihull Moors 1–1
L Birmingham 0–1
L Leicester 0–3
D Alfreton Town 0–0
Home clean sheet (120 days) 24%
Derby Derby
L Valencia 1–2
L SC Freiburg 3–1
W Alfreton Town 0–2
Away clean sheet (120 days) 22%

Playing profile

Burton Albion Burton Albion
Attack
7
Defence
69
Form
36
Derby Derby
Attack
33
Defence
58
Form
49
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Burton Albion vs Derby?
The model gives Burton Albion a 30% win probability, 34% for a draw, and 35% for an Derby win.
How many goals are expected in Burton Albion vs Derby?
Expected goals: Burton Albion 0.3, Derby 0.9 (total 1.2). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 75%.
What is the most likely score in Burton Albion vs Derby?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 10.47%.