Skip to main content
← Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.

Burundi - Zambia

Africa Cup of Nations - Qual. November 15, 2026 18:00
Burundi
#4 · 1 pts
vs
Zambia
#2 · 3 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
40.52%
Win
Burundi
33.64%
Draw
25.84%
Win
Zambia
0.97
Expected xG
0.56

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–0 (16.84%)
1X2 Result
1 41%
X 34%
2 26%
Double Chance
1X 74%
X2 60%
12 66%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 79%
✓ 77.1% hit rate (48 picks)
Over 2.5 56%
Share Telegram

The ForzaPitch prediction gives Burundi a 40% win probability, against 33% for a draw and 25% for Zambia. Expected goals are 1.0 for Burundi and 0.6 for Zambia (total 1.5), with a 78% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 16.84% probability.

Season Stats

Burundi
2W 1D 1L
Zambia
1W 0D 1L
Averages per game
2.5
Goals
1.5
0.8
Conceded
1.5
4.0
Shots OT
3.0
6.0
Corners
5.5
39%
Poss.
36%
Percentages
75%
O 1.5
100%
75%
O 2.5
50%
25%
BTTS
50%
50%
Clean Sht
50%
ℹ Based on the last 4 matches in Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
100%
O 3.5
75%
BTTS
Burundi
1W 1D 0L · at home
Zambia
0W 0D 1L · away
3.0
gls/g
1.0
1.0
Conceded
3.0
50%
Win %
0%
100%
Win or Draw
0%
100%
O 1.5
100%
100%
O 2.5
100%
100%
O 3.5
100%
50%
BTTS
100%
50%
Clean Sht
0%
0%
Failed to Score
0%
last 2
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Burundi Zambia →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 21.5% 12.1% 3.4% 0.6% 0.1% —
1 20.9% 11.8% 3.3% 0.6% 0.1% —
2 10.2% 5.7% 1.6% 0.3% — —
3 3.3% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% — —
4 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% — — —
5 0.2% 0.1% — — — —

Recent form

Burundi Burundi
D Algeria 2–2
L Togo 1–0
W Chad 4–0
W Chad 0–4
Home clean sheet (120 days) 23%
Zambia Zambia
W Togo 2–0
L Algeria 3–1
Away clean sheet (120 days) 23%

Playing profile

Burundi Burundi
Attack
42
Defence
64
Form
20
Zambia Zambia
Attack
25
Defence
63
Form
33
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Group I

# Team G Pts
1 Algeria Algeria 2 4
2 Zambia Zambia 2 3
3 Togo Togo 2 3
4 Burundi Burundi 2 1

What's at stake · Group I

Top 2 advance to the next round

Burundi Zambia
Current #4 #2
→ Burundi #2 #3
→ Draw #4 #2
→ Zambia #4 #1

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Burundi vs Zambia?
The model gives Burundi a 40% win probability, 33% for a draw, and 25% for an Zambia win.
How many goals are expected in Burundi vs Zambia?
Expected goals: Burundi 1.0, Zambia 0.6 (total 1.5). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 78%.
What is the most likely score in Burundi vs Zambia?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 16.84%.