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Bury - Bromsgrove Sporting

FA Cup October 03, 2026 16:00
Bury
vs
Bromsgrove Sporting
⚡ Pre-match analysis
43.81%
Win
Bury
26.68%
Draw
29.51%
Win
Bromsgrove Sporting
2.89
Expected xG
1.83

Market probabilities

Most likely result 2–1 (9.21%)
1X2 Result
1 44%
X 27%
2 30%
Double Chance
1X 71%
X2 56%
12 73%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 83%
Over 2.5 65%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Bury a 43% win probability, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Bromsgrove Sporting. Expected goals are 2.9 for Bury and 1.8 for Bromsgrove Sporting (total 4.7), with a 82% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–1 at 9.21% probability.

Season Stats

Bury
3W 1D 1L
Bromsgrove Sporting
2W 0D 1L
Averages per game
4.0
Goals
2.0
0.8
Conceded
2.0
Percentages
100%
O 1.5
100%
60%
O 2.5
67%
40%
BTTS
67%
40%
Clean Sht
33%
ℹ Based on the last 5 matches in FA Cup. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
88%
O 3.5
63%
BTTS
Bury
3W 0D 1L · at home
Bromsgrove Sporting
0W 0D 1L · away
4.8
gls/g
2.0
0.8
Conceded
5.0
75%
Win %
0%
75%
Win or Draw
0%
100%
O 1.5
100%
75%
O 2.5
100%
75%
O 3.5
100%
25%
BTTS
100%
50%
Clean Sht
0%
25%
Failed to Score
0%
last 4
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Bury Bromsgrove Sporting →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 0.9% 1.6% 1.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2%
1 2.6% 4.7% 4.3% 2.6% 1.2% 0.4%
2 3.7% 6.8% 6.2% 3.8% 1.7% 0.6%
3 3.6% 6.6% 6.0% 3.7% 1.7% 0.6%
4 2.6% 4.7% 4.3% 2.7% 1.2% 0.4%
5 1.5% 2.7% 2.5% 1.5% 0.7% 0.3%

Recent form

Bury Bury
W Workington 5–1
W Wythenshawe Amateurs 8–0
L Stalybridge Celtic 0–2
D Stalybridge Celtic 1–1
W South Liverpool 6–0
Home clean sheet (120 days) 36%
Bromsgrove Sporting Bromsgrove Sporting
W Leek Town 2–1
W Nuneaton Town 2–0
L Evesham United 5–2
Away clean sheet (120 days) 33%

Playing profile

Bury Bury
Attack
72
Defence
83
Form
81
Bromsgrove Sporting Bromsgrove Sporting
Attack
59
Defence
85
Form
78
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Bury vs Bromsgrove Sporting?
The model gives Bury a 43% win probability, 26% for a draw, and 29% for an Bromsgrove Sporting win.
How many goals are expected in Bury vs Bromsgrove Sporting?
Expected goals: Bury 2.9, Bromsgrove Sporting 1.8 (total 4.7). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 82%.
What is the most likely score in Bury vs Bromsgrove Sporting?
2–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 9.21%.