Bury - Workington
FA Cup
September 19, 2026 16:00
⚡ Pre-match analysis
38.3%
Win
Bury
30.88%
Draw
30.82%
Win
Workington
2.85
1.24
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–1
(10.75%)
1X2 Result
1
38%
X
31%
2
31%
Double Chance
1X
69%
X2
62%
12
69%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
56%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Bury a 38% win probability, against 30% for a draw and 30% for Workington. Expected goals are 2.9 for Bury and 1.2 for Workington (total 4.1), with a 77% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 10.75% probability.
Season Stats
2W
1D
1L
1W
0D
1L
Averages per game
3.8
Goals
2.5
0.8
Conceded
1.5
Percentages
100%
O 1.5
100%
50%
O 2.5
100%
25%
BTTS
50%
50%
Clean Sht
50%
ℹ
Based on the last 4 matches in FA Cup. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Score Matrix
↕ Bury
Workington →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | — |
| 1 | 4.8% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 6.8% | 8.4% | 5.2% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 6.5% | 8.0% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 4.6% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 5 | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Recent form
Playing profile
Bury
Attack
65
Defence
85
Form
79
Workington
Attack
45
Defence
77
Form
56
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Bury vs Workington?
The model gives Bury a 38% win probability, 30% for a draw, and 30% for an Workington win.
How many goals are expected in Bury vs Workington?
Expected goals: Bury 2.9, Workington 1.2 (total 4.1). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 77%.
What is the most likely score in Bury vs Workington?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 10.75%.