Caerphilly Athletic - Pontypridd Town
FAW Championship
September 25, 2026 20:45
⚡ Pre-match analysis
27.73%
Win
Caerphilly Athletic
27.01%
Draw
45.26%
Win
Pontypridd Town
1.23
2.45
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–2
(8.72%)
1X2 Result
1
28%
X
27%
2
45%
Double Chance
1X
55%
X2
72%
12
73%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
60%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Pontypridd Town a 45% win probability, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Caerphilly Athletic. Expected goals are 1.2 for Caerphilly Athletic and 2.4 for Pontypridd Town (total 3.7), with a 78% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–2 at 8.72% probability.
Season Stats
2W
2D
3L
7W
4D
4L
Averages per game
1.0
Goals
2.1
1.7
Conceded
1.9
Percentages
71%
O 1.5
80%
71%
O 2.5
73%
43%
BTTS
67%
29%
Clean Sht
20%
ℹ
Based on the last 15 matches in FAW Championship. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Venue Form
Goals signal (venue avg)
57%
O 3.5
74%
BTTS
1W
1D
1L
· at home
5W
3D
2L
· away
1.3
gls/g
2.6
1.3
Conceded
1.9
33%
Win %
50%
67%
Win or Draw
80%
67%
O 1.5
80%
67%
O 2.5
80%
33%
O 3.5
80%
67%
BTTS
80%
33%
Clean Sht
10%
33%
Failed to Score
10%
last 10
ℹ
Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.
Score Matrix
↕ Caerphilly Athletic
Pontypridd Town →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 1.8% |
| 1 | 3.1% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 4.6% | 2.3% |
| 2 | 1.9% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.4% |
| 3 | 0.8% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
Caerphilly Athletic
Attack
27
Defence
57
Form
44
Pontypridd Town
Attack
60
Defence
57
Form
62
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
South
| # | Team | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Swansea University
|
6 | 16 |
| 2 |
Aberystwyth Town
|
6 | 15 |
| 3 |
Treowen Stars
|
7 | 13 |
| 4 |
Pontypridd Town
|
6 | 13 |
| 5 |
Baglan Dragons
|
8 | 13 |
| 6 |
Carmarthen Town
|
7 | 11 |
| 7 |
Caerau (Ely)
|
7 | 10 |
| 8 |
Afan Lido
|
8 | 10 |
| 9 |
Trethomas Bluebirds
|
7 | 9 |
| 10 |
Ynyshir Albions
|
6 | 9 |
| 11 |
Caerphilly Athletic
|
7 | 8 |
| 12 |
Cardiff Draconians
|
5 | 7 |
| 13 |
Newport City
|
5 | 6 |
| 14 |
Pontardawe Town
|
6 | 3 |
| 15 |
llanelli AFC
|
8 | 2 |
| 16 |
Llantwit Major
|
5 | 1 |
What's at stake · South
Top 2 advance to the next round
| Current | #11 | #4 |
| → Caerphilly Athletic | #7 | #4 |
| → Draw | #11 | #3 |
| → Pontypridd Town | #11 | #2 |
Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Caerphilly Athletic vs Pontypridd Town?
The model gives Caerphilly Athletic a 27% win probability, 27% for a draw, and 45% for an Pontypridd Town win.
How many goals are expected in Caerphilly Athletic vs Pontypridd Town?
Expected goals: Caerphilly Athletic 1.2, Pontypridd Town 2.4 (total 3.7). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 78%.
What is the most likely score in Caerphilly Athletic vs Pontypridd Town?
1–2 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 8.72%.