Copa Sudamericana
· Group Stage - 4
May 08, 2026 02:30
M. Nunez
77'
(pen.)
59'
(ast. J. Quintero)
M. Meza
90'+6
(ast. F. Gonzalez)
M. Salas
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Carabobo FC a 41% win probability (draw 27%, River Plate 31%). The final result was Carabobo FC 1–2 River Plate. In 1 previous meetings, Carabobo FC have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for River Plate.
Match statistics
3
Total shots
9
1
Shots on target
7
0.98
Actual xG
1.94
5
Saves
0
33%
Possession
67%
2
Corners
6
10
Tackles
17
3
🟨 Yellow cards
6
1
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
E. Neira
25'
26'
(missed pen.)
J. Quintero⚽
37'
F. Gonzalez
E. Castillo
45'+4
E. Castillo
45'
E. Tortolero
/ M. Cova
46'
Y. Orozco
/ J. Fuentes
46'
49'
G. Pezzella
55'
L. Silva
59'
ast. J. Quintero ·
M. Meza⚽
60'
F. Colidio
/
M. Meza
60'
M. Salas
/
S. Lencina
J. Bilbao
/ J. Berios
71'
72'
J. Meza
/
J. Freitas
73'
M. Vina
74'
J. Meza
⚽M. Nunez
(pen.)
77'
79'
K. Paez
/
J. Quintero
79'
L. Pereyra
/
L. Silva
L. Bruera
82'
84'
E. Centurion
86'
S. Beltran
90'+6
ast. F. Gonzalez ·
M. Salas⚽
Pre-match prediction
41.02%
Carabobo
27.32%
X
31.66%
River ←
we assigned to the actual result (River Plate)
31.66%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.21
0.98
-0.23
1.04
1.94
+0.91
River Plate dominated by xG (1.94 vs 0.98).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
22
L. Bruera
G
L. Bruera
G
4
D
32
Ezequiel Neira
D
Ezequiel Neira
D
28
Jonathan Bilbao
71'
D
Jonathan Bilbao
71'
D
8
Juan Camilo Pérez
M
Juan Camilo Pérez
M
26
Matías Núñez
1 ⚽
M
Matías Núñez
1 ⚽
M
5
E. Castillo
49'
M
E. Castillo
49'
M
21
A. González
M
A. González
M
7
Edson Tortolero
45'
F
19
Loureins Martínez
F
Loureins Martínez
F
10
Yohandry Orozco
45'
F
Yohandry Orozco
45'
F
Bench
16
Franner López
M
Franner López
M
17
Franyer Oliveros
D
Franyer Oliveros
D
3
Jean Fuentes
45'
D
Jean Fuentes
45'
D
18
J. Obando
M
9
J. Riasco
F
2
Marcel Guaramato
D
Marcel Guaramato
D
15
Maurice Cova
45'
M
Maurice Cova
45'
M
30
Sebastián Mendoza
M
Sebastián Mendoza
M
41
S. Beltrán
86'
G
S. Beltrán
86'
G
18
Matías Viña
D
Matías Viña
D
31
Facundo González
1 👟
D
Facundo González
1 👟
D
20
Germán Pezzella
D
Germán Pezzella
D
16
Fabricio Bustos
D
Fabricio Bustos
D
34
Giuliano Galoppo
M
Giuliano Galoppo
M
44
Lucas Silva
79'
M
Lucas Silva
79'
M
8
Maxi Meza
1 ⚽
60'
M
Maxi Meza
1 ⚽
60'
M
10
Juan Fernando Quintero
1 👟
79'
M
Juan Fernando Quintero
1 👟
79'
M
39
Santiago Lencina
60'
M
Santiago Lencina
60'
M
35
Joaquín Freitas
72'
F
Joaquín Freitas
72'
F
Bench
32
A. Ruberto
F
33
Ezequiel Centurión
G
Ezequiel Centurión
G
11
F. Colidio
30'
F
F. Colidio
30'
F
38
Ian Subiabre
F
Ian Subiabre
F
24
Juan Cruz Meza
18'
M
Juan Cruz Meza
18'
M
22
Kevin Castaño
M
Kevin Castaño
M
19
K. Páez
11'
M
K. Páez
11'
M
28
L. Martínez
D
L. Martínez
D
7
Maximiliano Salas
1 ⚽
30'
F
Maximiliano Salas
1 ⚽
30'
F
Best on the pitch
Maximiliano Salas
F · River
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 5 pass
Maxi Meza
M · River
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 31 pass
Matías Viña
D · River
7.70
· 40 pass
Matías Núñez
M · Carabobo
7.20
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 33 pass
Giuliano Galoppo
M · River
7.20
1 shots
· 42 pass
Maurice Cova
M · Carabobo
6.90
· 13 pass
Carabobo FC — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Bruera | G | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 19 | 13% | — | 1 | — |
| D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 40 | 37% | 1 | — | — | |
| Ezequiel Neira | D | 90 | 5.60 | — | — | — | 16 | 13% | — | 1 | — |
| Jonathan Bilbao | D | 71 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 23 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Juan Camilo Pérez | M | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 21 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
| Matías Núñez | M | 90 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 33 | 28% | 3 | — | — |
| E. Castillo | M | 49 | 5.60 | — | — | — | 9 | 7% | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| A. González | M | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 19 | 14% | 2 | — | — |
| Edson Tortolero | F | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 12 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Loureins Martínez | F | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 8 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Yohandry Orozco | F | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 9 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Jean Fuentes | D | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 14 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| Maurice Cova | M | 45 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 13 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
River Plate — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Beltrán | G | 86 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 14 | 8% | — | — | 1 |
| Matías Viña | D | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 40 | 34% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Facundo González | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | 1 | — | 64 | 61% | — | 1 | — |
| Germán Pezzella | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 48 | 45% | — | 1 | — |
| Fabricio Bustos | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 69 | 52% | 5 | — | — |
| Giuliano Galoppo | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 42 | 40% | 2 | — | — |
| Lucas Silva | M | 79 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 50 | 46% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Maxi Meza | M | 60 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 1 | 31 | 24% | 2 | — | — |
| Juan Fernando Quintero | M | 79 | 6.90 | — | 1 | 4 | 56 | 47% | — | — | — |
| Santiago Lencina | M | 60 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 25 | 20% | — | — | — |
| Joaquín Freitas | F | 72 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 17 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| F. Colidio | F | 30 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 10 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| Juan Cruz Meza | M | 18 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | — | 1 | — |
| K. Páez | M | 11 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 5 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Maximiliano Salas | F | 30 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 1 | 5 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Carabobo FC vs River Plate?
The final score was Carabobo FC 1–2 River Plate.
What did the model predict before Carabobo FC vs River Plate?
The model assigned 41% probability to a Carabobo FC win, 27% to a draw, and 31% to an River Plate win.