Copa Sudamericana
· Group Stage - 4
May 08, 2026 02:30
M. Nunez
77'
(pen.)
59'
(ast. J. Quintero)
M. Meza
90'+6
(ast. F. Gonzalez)
M. Salas
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Carabobo FC a 41% win probability (draw 27%, River Plate 31%). The final result was Carabobo FC 1–2 River Plate. In 1 previous meetings, Carabobo FC have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for River Plate.
Match statistics
3
Total shots
9
1
Shots on target
7
0.98
Actual xG
1.94
5
Saves
0
33%
Possession
67%
2
Corners
6
10
Tackles
17
3
🟨 Yellow cards
6
1
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
E. Neira
25'
26'
(missed pen.)
J. Quintero⚽
37'
F. Gonzalez
E. Castillo
45'+4
E. Castillo
45'
E. Tortolero
/ M. Cova
46'
Y. Orozco
/ J. Fuentes
46'
49'
G. Pezzella
55'
L. Silva
59'
ast. J. Quintero ·
M. Meza⚽
60'
F. Colidio
/
M. Meza
60'
M. Salas
/
S. Lencina
J. Bilbao
/ J. Berios
71'
72'
J. Meza
/
J. Freitas
73'
M. Vina
74'
J. Meza
⚽M. Nunez
(pen.)
77'
79'
K. Paez
/
J. Quintero
79'
L. Pereyra
/
L. Silva
L. Bruera
82'
84'
E. Centurion
86'
S. Beltran
90'+6
ast. F. Gonzalez ·
M. Salas⚽
Pre-match prediction
41.02%
Carabobo
27.32%
X
31.66%
River ←
we assigned to the actual result (River Plate)
31.66%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.21
0.98
-0.23
1.04
1.94
+0.91
River Plate dominated by xG (1.94 vs 0.98).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
22
Lucas Bruera
G
4
D
32
E. Neira
D
28
J. Bilbao
71'
D
8
J. Pérez
M
26
M. Núñez
1 ⚽
M
5
E. Castillo
49'
M
E. Castillo
49'
M
21
A. González
M
A. González
M
7
Edson Tortolero
45'
F
Edson Tortolero
45'
F
19
Loureins Martínez
F
Loureins Martínez
F
10
Y. Orozco
45'
F
Bench
16
F. López
M
17
F. Oliveros
D
3
J. Fuentes
45'
D
18
J. Obando
M
9
J. Riasco
F
15
M. Cova
45'
M
2
M. Guaramato
D
30
Sebastián Mendoza
M
Sebastián Mendoza
M
41
S. Beltrán
86'
G
S. Beltrán
86'
G
18
M. Viña
D
M. Viña
D
31
Facundo González
1 👟
D
Facundo González
1 👟
D
20
Germán Pezzella
D
16
F. Bustos
D
F. Bustos
D
34
G. Galoppo
M
G. Galoppo
M
44
Lucas Silva
79'
M
Lucas Silva
79'
M
8
Maxi Meza
1 ⚽
60'
M
Maxi Meza
1 ⚽
60'
M
10
J. Quintero
1 👟
79'
M
J. Quintero
1 👟
79'
M
39
Santiago Lencina
60'
M
Santiago Lencina
60'
M
35
J. Freitas
72'
F
J. Freitas
72'
F
Bench
32
A. Ruberto
F
33
Ezequiel Centurión
G
Ezequiel Centurión
G
11
F. Colidio
30'
F
F. Colidio
30'
F
38
Ian Martin Subiabre
F
Ian Martin Subiabre
F
24
Juan Cruz Meza
18'
M
Juan Cruz Meza
18'
M
19
Kendry Páez
11'
M
Kendry Páez
11'
M
22
Kevin Castaño
M
Kevin Castaño
M
28
L. Martínez
D
L. Martínez
D
7
M. Salas
1 ⚽
30'
F
M. Salas
1 ⚽
30'
F
Best on the pitch
M. Salas
F · River
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 5 pass
Maxi Meza
M · River
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 31 pass
M. Viña
D · River
7.70
· 40 pass
M. Núñez
M · Carabobo
7.20
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 33 pass
G. Galoppo
M · River
7.20
1 shots
· 42 pass
M. Cova
M · Carabobo
6.90
· 13 pass
Carabobo FC — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Bruera | G | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 19 | 13% | — | 1 | — |
| D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 40 | 37% | 1 | — | — | |
| E. Neira | D | 90 | 5.60 | — | — | — | 16 | 13% | — | 1 | — |
| J. Bilbao | D | 71 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 23 | 14% | — | — | — |
| J. Pérez | M | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 21 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Núñez | M | 90 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 33 | 28% | 3 | — | — |
| E. Castillo | M | 49 | 5.60 | — | — | — | 9 | 7% | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| A. González | M | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 19 | 14% | 2 | — | — |
| Edson Tortolero | F | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 12 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Loureins Martínez | F | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 8 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Y. Orozco | F | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 9 | 6% | — | — | — |
| J. Fuentes | D | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 14 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Cova | M | 45 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 13 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
River Plate — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Beltrán | G | 86 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 14 | 8% | — | — | 1 |
| M. Viña | D | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 40 | 34% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Facundo González | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | 1 | — | 64 | 61% | — | 1 | — |
| Germán Pezzella | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 48 | 45% | — | 1 | — |
| F. Bustos | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 69 | 52% | 5 | — | — |
| G. Galoppo | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 42 | 40% | 2 | — | — |
| Lucas Silva | M | 79 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 50 | 46% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Maxi Meza | M | 60 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 1 | 31 | 24% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Quintero | M | 79 | 6.90 | — | 1 | 4 | 56 | 47% | — | — | — |
| Santiago Lencina | M | 60 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 25 | 20% | — | — | — |
| J. Freitas | F | 72 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 17 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| F. Colidio | F | 30 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 10 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| Juan Cruz Meza | M | 18 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | — | 1 | — |
| Kendry Páez | M | 11 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 5 | 5% | — | — | — |
| M. Salas | F | 30 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 1 | 5 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Carabobo FC vs River Plate?
The final score was Carabobo FC 1–2 River Plate.
What did the model predict before Carabobo FC vs River Plate?
The model assigned 41% probability to a Carabobo FC win, 27% to a draw, and 31% to an River Plate win.