Copa Sudamericana
· Group Stage - 2
April 16, 2026 00:00
Wilfred Correa
(ast. Eduardo Fereira)
55'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Caracas FC a 38% win probability (draw 32%, Independiente Petrolero 29%). The final result was Caracas FC 1–0 Independiente Petrolero. In 1 previous meetings, Caracas FC have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Independiente Petrolero.
Match statistics
9
Total shots
7
3
Shots on target
3
1.04
Actual xG
1.11
3
Saves
3
47%
Possession
53%
0
Corners
2
14
Tackles
15
5
🟨 Yellow cards
2
1
🟥 Red cards
0
Match Events
Francisco La Mantía
7'
21'
Luis Palma
Luis Mago
35'
⚽Wilfred Correa
· ast. Eduardo Fereira
55'
57'
Alan Mercado
/
Diego Vargas
57'
Adelan Santos Da Silva
/
Thomaz
Adrián Fernández
/ Sebastián González
59'
Lucciano Reinoso
/ Rodhier Lezama
59'
Charly Vegas
66'
Charly Vegas
/ Juan Uribe
71'
Juan Uribe
72'
75'
Adelan Santos Da Silva
Francisco La Mantía
76'
Francisco La Mantía
76'
Michael Covea
/ Jesús Quintero
78'
82'
Wagner
/
Rudy Cardozo
83'
Gustavo Cristaldo
/
Daniel Rojas
86'
Jonathan Cristaldo
/
Willie
Pre-match prediction
38.09%
Caracas ←
32.45%
X
29.46%
Independiente
we assigned to the actual result (Caracas FC)
38.09%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.31
1.04
-0.27
0.68
1.11
+0.43
xG dominance was balanced (1.04 – 1.11).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
1
G
2
Eduardo Fereira
1 👟
D
Eduardo Fereira
1 👟
D
14
F. La Mantia
76'
D
F. La Mantia
76'
D
19
L. Del Pino
D
L. Del Pino
D
13
Jesus Yendis
D
Jesus Yendis
D
15
C. Larotonda
M
33
W. Correa
1 ⚽
M
37
Charly Vegas
71'
M
Charly Vegas
71'
M
17
L. Reinoso
59'
M
10
M. Covea
78'
M
9
A. Fernández
59'
F
A. Fernández
59'
F
Bench
4
J. Quintero
12'
D
32
J. Uribe
19'
F
3
Luigi Pagano
D
Luigi Pagano
D
20
Luis Maestre
M
Luis Maestre
M
11
Mauricio Márquez
F
Mauricio Márquez
F
7
R. Hernández
F
35
R. Lezama
31'
F
27
S. Gonzalez
31'
F
1
G
3
D
2
S. Torres
D
S. Torres
D
5
Luis Braihan Palma Escobar
D
Luis Braihan Palma Escobar
D
4
F. Rodríguez
D
F. Rodríguez
D
50
Diego Vargas
57'
M
Diego Vargas
57'
M
6
D. Rojas
83'
M
D. Rojas
83'
M
7
R. Cardozo
82'
M
R. Cardozo
82'
M
93
Willie
86'
M
Willie
86'
M
10
Thomaz Santos
57'
M
Thomaz Santos
57'
M
23
R. Rivas
F
R. Rivas
F
Bench
88
Adelan Santos Da Silva
33'
M
Adelan Santos Da Silva
33'
M
20
A. Mercado
33'
M
A. Mercado
33'
M
27
D. Navarro
F
D. Navarro
F
19
G. Cristaldo
14'
M
G. Cristaldo
14'
M
32
Heber Leanos
D
Heber Leanos
D
9
J. Cristaldo
11'
F
J. Cristaldo
11'
F
13
L. Montenegro
D
11
Rafael Lutkowski
F
Rafael Lutkowski
F
16
Ronny Montero
D
Ronny Montero
D
Best on the pitch
W. Correa
M · Caracas
8.20
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 48 pass
G · Caracas
7.60
· 17 pass
Eduardo Fereira
D · Caracas
7.60
1 👟
1 shots
· 33 pass
Charly Vegas
M · Caracas
7.30
2 shots
· 21 pass
G · Independiente
7.30
· 27 pass
L. Del Pino
D · Caracas
7.20
1 shots
· 45 pass
Caracas FC — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 7.60 | — | — | — | 17 | 8% | — | — | — | |
| Eduardo Fereira | D | 90 | 7.60 | — | 1 | 1 | 33 | 23% | 1 | — | — |
| F. La Mantia | D | 76 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 34 | 30% | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| L. Del Pino | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 45 | 39% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Jesus Yendis | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 40 | 32% | — | — | — |
| C. Larotonda | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 39 | 32% | 2 | — | — |
| W. Correa | M | 90 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 48 | 42% | 2 | — | — |
| Charly Vegas | M | 71 | 7.30 | — | — | 2 | 21 | 18% | 2 | 1 | — |
| L. Reinoso | M | 59 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 17 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Covea | M | 78 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 30 | 28% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Fernández | F | 59 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| J. Quintero | D | 12 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Uribe | F | 19 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 4 | 2% | — | 1 | — |
| R. Lezama | F | 31 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 9 | 7% | — | — | — |
| S. Gonzalez | F | 31 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1% | 1 | — | — |
Independiente Petrolero — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 27 | 23% | — | — | — | |
| D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 40 | 34% | — | — | — | |
| S. Torres | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 32 | 24% | 3 | — | — |
| Luis Braihan Palma Escobar | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 23 | 16% | 1 | 1 | — |
| F. Rodríguez | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 50 | 38% | 3 | — | — |
| Diego Vargas | M | 57 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 18 | 15% | — | — | — |
| D. Rojas | M | 83 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 41 | 37% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Cardozo | M | 82 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 38 | 32% | 2 | — | — |
| Willie | M | 86 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 32 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| Thomaz Santos | M | 57 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 27 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Rivas | F | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 3 | 14 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| Adelan Santos Da Silva | M | 33 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 27 | 22% | — | 1 | — |
| A. Mercado | M | 33 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 9 | 5% | — | — | — |
| G. Cristaldo | M | 14 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 12% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Cristaldo | F | 11 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Caracas FC vs Independiente Petrolero?
The final score was Caracas FC 1–0 Independiente Petrolero.
What did the model predict before Caracas FC vs Independiente Petrolero?
The model assigned 38% probability to a Caracas FC win, 32% to a draw, and 29% to an Independiente Petrolero win.