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Championship · Regular Season - 12 October 24, 2026 16:00 Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff
Cardiff
#16 · 14 pts
1 – 0
Final score
Birmingham
#7 · 20 pts
Yousef Salech (ast. Ollie·Tanner) 31'
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Birmingham a 42% win probability (draw 24%, Cardiff 32%). The final result was Cardiff 1–0 Birmingham.

Match statistics
16
Total shots
7
4
Shots on target
2
2.40
Actual xG
0.63
2
Saves
3
52%
Possession
48%
3
Corners
3
16
Tackles
12
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
⚽Yousef Salech (missed pen.)
22'
⚽Yousef Salech · ast. Ollie·Tanner
31'
50'
Jhon Elmer Solís Romero
64'
Marvin Ducksch / Luis Vasquez ↕
64'
Patrick Roberts / Carlos Vicente ↕
64'
Max Bird / Jhon Elmer Solís Romero ↕
↕ Calum Scanlon / Ronan Kpakio
68'
↕ Ollie·Tanner / Christopher Willock
68'
70'
Demarai Gray / Liam Millar ↕
78'
Ethan Laird / Bright Osayi-Samuel ↕
81'
Christoph·Klarer
Joel Bagan
82'
↕ Jack Moylan / David Turnbull
87'
↕ C. Ashford / Isaak Davies
90'+3
90'+5
Chris Davies
Pre-match prediction
32.65%
Cardiff ←
24.87%
X
42.48%
Birmingham
we assigned to the actual result (Cardiff) 32.65% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Cardiff
1.62
2.40
+0.78
Birmingham
2.06
0.63
-1.44
Cardiff dominated by xG (2.40 vs 0.63). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 12 25
2 Swansea Swansea 12 23
3 West Ham West Ham 12 22
4 Wolves Wolves 12 21
5 West Brom West Brom 12 21
6 Southampton Southampton 12 20
7 Birmingham Birmingham 12 20
8 QPR QPR 12 20
9 Stoke City Stoke City 12 20
10 Blackburn Blackburn 12 18
11 Portsmouth Portsmouth 12 18
12 Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 12 16
13 Millwall Millwall 12 15
14 Bristol City Bristol City 12 15
15 Lincoln Lincoln 12 15
16 Cardiff Cardiff 12 14
17 Wrexham Wrexham 12 14
18 Bolton Bolton 12 14
19 Charlton Charlton 12 14
20 Norwich Norwich 12 12
21 Watford Watford 12 11
22 Burnley Burnley 12 8
23 Derby Derby 12 7
24 Preston Preston 12 5
Lineups
Cardiff Cardiff 4-2-3-1
1 N. Trott N. Trott G 6.61
23 C. Scanlon C. Scanlon 68' D 6.53
3 J. Bagan J. Bagan D 6.29
2 W. Fish W. Fish D 7.32
38 P. Ng P. Ng D 6.55
8 J. Moylan J. Moylan 87' M 7.15
18 A. Robertson A. Robertson M 7.02
45 Cian Ashford Cian Ashford 89' M 6.52
27 J. Colwill J. Colwill M 6.80
11 O. Tanner O. Tanner 1 👟 68' M 6.82
9 Y. Salech Y. Salech 1 ⚽ F 7.72
Bench
16 C. Willock C. Willock 22' M 6.66
14 D. Turnbull D. Turnbull 3' M 6.20
30 H. Tyrer H. Tyrer G 0.00
39 I. Davies I. Davies 1' F 0.00
40 N. Anyadike N. Anyadike D 0.00
44 R. Kpakio R. Kpakio 22' D 6.34
33 R. Tankiewicz R. Tankiewicz M 0.00
52 T. Perrett T. Perrett M 0.00
Birmingham Birmingham 4-2-3-1
1 J. Beadle J. Beadle G 6.14
20 A. Cochrane A. Cochrane D 6.36
4 C. Klarer C. Klarer D 5.96
5 P. Neumann P. Neumann D 6.60
26 B. Osayi-Samuel B. Osayi-Samuel 78' D 5.80
14 J. Solis J. Solis 64' M 6.10
24 T. Iwata T. Iwata M 6.32
17 L. Millar L. Millar 70' M 6.24
28 J. Stansfield J. Stansfield M 6.20
7 Carlos Vicente Carlos Vicente 64' M 6.34
32 L. Vázquez L. Vázquez 64' F 6.50
Bench
23 D. Fry D. Fry D 0.00
10 D. Gray D. Gray 20' F 6.58
2 E. Laird E. Laird 12' D 5.66
3 L. Buchanan L. Buchanan D 0.00
18 M. Bird M. Bird 26' M 6.40
33 M. Ducksch M. Ducksch 26' F 5.89
16 P. Roberts P. Roberts 26' M 6.70
21 R. Allsop R. Allsop G 0.00
19 T. Gardner-Hickman T. Gardner-Hickman M 0.00
Best on the pitch
Y. Salech
Y. Salech
F · Cardiff
7.72
1 ⚽
8 shots · 23 pass
W. Fish
W. Fish
D · Cardiff
7.32
· 60 pass
J. Moylan
J. Moylan
M · Cardiff
7.15
2 shots · 22 pass
A. Robertson
A. Robertson
M · Cardiff
7.02
· 47 pass
O. Tanner
O. Tanner
M · Cardiff
6.82
1 👟
· 24 pass
J. Colwill
J. Colwill
M · Cardiff
6.80
1 shots · 31 pass
Cardiff Cardiff — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
N. Trott G 90 6.61 — — 0 40 24% 0 — —
C. Scanlon D 68 6.53 — — 0 26 22% 1 — —
J. Bagan D 90 6.29 — — 1 61 45% 2 1 —
W. Fish D 90 7.32 — — 0 60 44% 0 — —
P. Ng D 90 6.55 — — 1 40 27% 2 — —
J. Moylan M 87 7.15 — — 2 22 15% 4 — —
A. Robertson M 90 7.02 — — 0 47 41% 0 — —
Cian Ashford M 89 6.52 — — 3 24 20% 2 — —
J. Colwill M 90 6.80 — — 1 31 28% 1 — —
O. Tanner M 68 6.82 — 1 0 24 14% 1 — —
Y. Salech F 90 7.72 1 — 8 23 14% 0 — —
C. Willock M 22 6.66 — — 0 7 6% 3 — —
D. Turnbull M 3 6.20 — — 0 0 0% 0 — —
I. Davies F 1 0.00 — — 0 0 0% 0 — —
R. Kpakio D 22 6.34 — — 0 9 9% 0 — —
Birmingham Birmingham — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
J. Beadle G 90 6.14 — — 0 43 17% 0 — —
A. Cochrane D 90 6.36 — — 1 35 28% 0 — —
C. Klarer D 90 5.96 — — 0 46 37% 2 1 —
P. Neumann D 90 6.60 — — 0 33 29% 1 — —
B. Osayi-Samuel D 78 5.80 — — 0 38 25% 0 — —
J. Solis M 64 6.10 — — 0 21 17% 1 1 —
T. Iwata M 90 6.32 — — 0 43 31% 2 — —
L. Millar M 70 6.24 — — 0 19 13% 3 — —
J. Stansfield M 90 6.20 — — 2 11 3% 0 — —
Carlos Vicente M 64 6.34 — — 1 27 25% 0 — —
L. Vázquez F 64 6.50 — — 0 12 6% 0 — —
D. Gray F 20 6.58 — — 1 13 12% 0 — —
E. Laird D 12 5.66 — — 0 9 7% 0 — —
M. Bird M 26 6.40 — — 0 16 12% 0 — —
M. Ducksch F 26 5.89 — — 2 5 3% 0 — —
P. Roberts M 26 6.70 — — 0 14 12% 3 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Cardiff vs Birmingham?
The final score was Cardiff 1–0 Birmingham.
What did the model predict before Cardiff vs Birmingham?
The model assigned 32% probability to a Cardiff win, 24% to a draw, and 42% to an Birmingham win.