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Carmarthen Town - Aberystwyth Town

FAW Championship November 07, 2026 20:45
Carmarthen Town
#10 · 15 pts
vs
Aberystwyth Town
#2 · 22 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
23.8%
Win
Carmarthen Town
21.55%
Draw
54.65%
Win
Aberystwyth Town
1.22
Expected xG
2.82

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–2 (8.95%)
1X2 Result
1 24%
X 22%
2 55%
Double Chance
1X 45%
X2 76%
12 79%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 63%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Aberystwyth Town a 54% win probability, against 21% for a draw and 23% for Carmarthen Town. Expected goals are 1.2 for Carmarthen Town and 2.8 for Aberystwyth Town (total 4.0), with a 82% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–2 at 8.95% probability. In 2 previous meetings, Carmarthen Town have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Aberystwyth Town.

Season Stats

Carmarthen Town
5W 3D 7L
Aberystwyth Town
7W 3D 5L
Averages per game
2.1
Goals
1.8
2.1
Conceded
1.2
Percentages
93%
O 1.5
67%
93%
O 2.5
60%
87%
BTTS
53%
7%
Clean Sht
27%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in FAW Championship. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
55%
O 3.5
60%
BTTS
Carmarthen Town
2W 2D 6L · at home
Aberystwyth Town
5W 1D 4L · away
1.5
gls/g
1.5
2.1
Conceded
1.6
20%
Win %
50%
40%
Win or Draw
60%
80%
O 1.5
70%
70%
O 2.5
60%
60%
O 3.5
50%
70%
BTTS
50%
10%
Clean Sht
30%
30%
Failed to Score
30%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Carmarthen Town Aberystwyth Town →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1.8% 5.0% 7.0% 6.5% 4.6% 2.6%
1 2.2% 6.1% 8.5% 8.0% 5.6% 3.2%
2 1.3% 3.7% 5.2% 4.9% 3.5% 1.9%
3 0.5% 1.5% 2.1% 2.0% 1.4% 0.8%
4 0.2% 0.5% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2%
5 — 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Recent form

Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town
L Pontardawe Town 2–1
L Caerphilly Athletic 1–3
D Cardiff Draconians 2–2
L Llantwit Major 1–2
W Baglan Dragons 1–2
Home clean sheet (120 days) 12%
Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town
W Trethomas Bluebirds 2–1
L Caerau (Ely) 0–1
W Pontypridd Town 1–3
D Swansea University 0–0
W Caerphilly Athletic 2–3
Away clean sheet (120 days) 18%

Playing profile

Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town
Attack
39
Defence
47
Form
38
Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town
Attack
51
Defence
81
Form
73
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

1
Carmarthen Town
1
Draw
0
Aberystwyth Town
1 Jan 2026 FAW Championship 1–1
22 Aug 2025 FAW Championship 1–0

South

# Team G Pts
1 Pontypridd Town Pontypridd Town 13 27
2 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town 10 22
3 Caerau (Ely) Caerau (Ely) 13 22
4 Swansea University Swansea University 10 21
5 Baglan Dragons Baglan Dragons 13 20
6 Ynyshir Albions Ynyshir Albions 11 19
7 Afan Lido Afan Lido 14 18
8 Treowen Stars Treowen Stars 12 17
9 Trethomas Bluebirds Trethomas Bluebirds 12 16
10 Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town 12 15
11 Pontardawe Town Pontardawe Town 11 14
12 Caerphilly Athletic Caerphilly Athletic 13 14
13 Newport City Newport City 11 13
14 Cardiff Draconians Cardiff Draconians 10 12
15 Llantwit Major Llantwit Major 11 11
16 llanelli AFC llanelli AFC 14 3

What's at stake · South

Top 2 advance to the next round

Carmarthen Town Aberystwyth Town
Current #10 #2
→ Carmarthen Town #8 #2
→ Draw #10 #2
→ Aberystwyth Town #10 #2

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Carmarthen Town vs Aberystwyth Town?
The model gives Carmarthen Town a 23% win probability, 21% for a draw, and 54% for an Aberystwyth Town win.
How many goals are expected in Carmarthen Town vs Aberystwyth Town?
Expected goals: Carmarthen Town 1.2, Aberystwyth Town 2.8 (total 4.0). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 82%.
What is the most likely score in Carmarthen Town vs Aberystwyth Town?
1–2 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 8.95%.