✓Model correct — prediction Carrarese
N. Calabrese
(ast. E. Zuelli)
17'
M. Finotto
(ast. S. Zanon)
23'
F. Abiuso
(ast. L. Hasa)
63'
49'
(ast. G. Artistico)
M. Valoti
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Carrarese a 58% win probability (draw 25%, Spezia 16%). The final result was Carrarese 3–1 Spezia. In 1 previous meetings, Carrarese have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Spezia.
Match statistics
11
Total shots
8
4
Shots on target
4
2.61
Actual xG
1.46
3
Saves
1
50%
Possession
50%
2
Corners
5
5
Tackles
14
1
🟨 Yellow cards
4
1
🟥 Red cards
3
Match Events
16'
G. Bonfanti
⚽N. Calabrese
· ast. E. Zuelli
17'
⚽M. Finotto
· ast. S. Zanon
23'
⚽F. Abiuso
(missed pen.)
27'
45'+2
A. Mateju
46'
G. Lapadula
/
A. Mateju
49'
ast. G. Artistico ·
M. Valoti⚽
M. Finotto
59'
⚽F. Abiuso
· ast. L. Hasa
63'
69'
L. Vignali
70'
C. Comotto
/
L. Vignali
M. Finotto
/ F. Di Stefano
70'
J. Rouhi
/ N. Belloni
70'
70'
E. Adamo
/
F. Bandinelli
79'
M. Ruggero
/
G. Aurelio
L. Hasa
/ N. Schiavi
79'
S. Zanon
/ D. Bouah
85'
F. Abiuso
/ T. Rubino
85'
85'
M. Valoti
85'
A. Bellemo
/
A. Romano
90'+2
G. Bonfanti
90'+6
C. Comotto
90'
E. Adamo
N. Belloni
90'
Pre-match prediction
58.73%
Carrarese ←
25.26%
X
16.01%
Spezia
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Carrarese)
58.73%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.83
2.61
+0.78
0.84
1.46
+0.62
Carrarese dominated by xG (2.61 vs 1.46).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
G
26
F. Ruggeri
D
F. Ruggeri
D
6
F. Oliana
D
F. Oliana
D
37
N. Calabrese
1 ⚽
D
N. Calabrese
1 ⚽
D
73
J. Rouhi
70'
M
J. Rouhi
70'
M
70
L. Hasa
1 👟
79'
M
L. Hasa
1 👟
79'
M
17
E. Zuelli
1 👟
M
E. Zuelli
1 👟
M
77
G. Parlanti
M
G. Parlanti
M
72
S. Zanon
1 👟
85'
M
S. Zanon
1 👟
85'
M
32
M. Finotto
1 ⚽
70'
F
M. Finotto
1 ⚽
70'
F
9
F. Abiuso
1 ⚽
85'
F
F. Abiuso
1 ⚽
85'
F
Bench
13
D. Bouah
13'
M
D. Bouah
13'
M
92
E. Torregrossa
F
28
F. Distefano
28'
F
F. Distefano
28'
F
8
F. Melegoni
M
F. Melegoni
M
7
N. Belloni
20'
M
N. Belloni
20'
M
18
Nicolás Schiavi
19'
M
Nicolás Schiavi
19'
M
21
T. Rubino
13'
F
T. Rubino
13'
F
22
G
94
G. Bonfanti
D
G. Bonfanti
D
55
P. Hristov
D
37
A. Mateju
45'
D
31
G. Aurelio
79'
M
G. Aurelio
79'
M
25
F. Bandinelli
70'
M
F. Bandinelli
70'
M
60
A. Romano
85'
M
A. Romano
85'
M
32
L. Vignali
70'
M
L. Vignali
70'
M
17
L. Sernicola
M
L. Sernicola
M
5
M. Valoti
1 ⚽
85'
F
M. Valoti
1 ⚽
85'
F
9
G. Artistico
1 👟
F
G. Artistico
1 👟
F
Bench
8
Á. Nagy
M
Á. Nagy
M
34
C. Comotto
28'
M
C. Comotto
28'
M
12
D. Mascardi
G
D. Mascardi
G
70
E. Adamo
20'
M
E. Adamo
20'
M
20
G. Di Serio
F
10
G. Lapadula
53'
F
G. Lapadula
53'
F
Best on the pitch
M. Valoti
F · Spezia
8.90
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 39 pass
F. Ruggeri
D · Carrarese
8.20
1 shots
· 54 pass
S. Zanon
M · Carrarese
7.70
1 👟
· 14 pass
N. Calabrese
D · Carrarese
7.50
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 30 pass
L. Hasa
M · Carrarese
7.50
1 👟
1 shots
· 25 pass
E. Zuelli
M · Carrarese
7.30
1 👟
· 54 pass
Carrarese — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 98 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 25 | 18% | — | — | — | |
| F. Ruggeri | D | 98 | 8.20 | — | — | 1 | 54 | 46% | — | — | — |
| F. Oliana | D | 98 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 35 | 26% | — | — | — |
| N. Calabrese | D | 98 | 7.50 | 1 | — | 1 | 30 | 24% | — | — | — |
| J. Rouhi | M | 70 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 19 | 14% | — | — | — |
| L. Hasa | M | 79 | 7.50 | — | 1 | 1 | 25 | 18% | 2 | — | — |
| E. Zuelli | M | 98 | 7.30 | — | 1 | — | 54 | 46% | — | — | — |
| G. Parlanti | M | 98 | 7.30 | — | — | 2 | 28 | 24% | 2 | — | — |
| S. Zanon | M | 85 | 7.70 | — | 1 | — | 14 | 8% | — | — | — |
| M. Finotto | F | 70 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 7 | 5% | — | 1 | — |
| F. Abiuso | F | 85 | 6.90 | 1 | — | 3 | 12 | 8% | — | — | — |
| D. Bouah | M | 13 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| F. Distefano | F | 28 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 9 | 8% | — | — | — |
| N. Belloni | M | 20 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 13% | 1 | — | 1 |
| Nicolás Schiavi | M | 19 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 18 | 14% | — | — | — |
| T. Rubino | F | 13 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
Spezia — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 98 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 21 | 12% | — | — | — | |
| G. Bonfanti | D | 92 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 46 | 39% | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| P. Hristov | D | 98 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 41 | 34% | 2 | — | — |
| A. Mateju | D | 45 | 5.70 | — | — | — | 23 | 17% | — | 1 | — |
| G. Aurelio | M | 79 | 6.00 | — | — | 1 | 9 | 7% | — | — | — |
| F. Bandinelli | M | 70 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 36 | 30% | 3 | — | — |
| A. Romano | M | 85 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 40 | 31% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Vignali | M | 70 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 17 | 13% | — | 1 | — |
| L. Sernicola | M | 98 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 34 | 30% | — | — | — |
| M. Valoti | F | 85 | 8.90 | 1 | — | 2 | 39 | 34% | 6 | — | 1 |
| G. Artistico | F | 98 | 6.30 | — | 1 | 1 | 10 | 7% | — | — | — |
| C. Comotto | M | 28 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 5 | 3% | — | 1 | — |
| E. Adamo | M | 20 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | — | — | 1 |
| G. Lapadula | F | 53 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 4 | 3% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Carrarese vs Spezia?
The final score was Carrarese 3–1 Spezia.
What did the model predict before Carrarese vs Spezia?
The model assigned 58% probability to a Carrarese win, 25% to a draw, and 16% to an Spezia win.