✗Model wrong — prediction Benfica, result Draw
R. Brito
78'
68'
(ast. A. Schjelderup)
R. Rios
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Benfica a 68% win probability (draw 15%, Casa Pia 15%). The final result was Casa Pia 1–1 Benfica. In 2 previous meetings, Casa Pia have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Benfica.
Match statistics
5
Total shots
12
2
Shots on target
3
0.36
Actual xG
1.67
2
Saves
1
22%
Possession
78%
3
Corners
12
12
Tackles
13
1
🟨 Yellow cards
0
Match Events
T. Morais
/ K. Osundina
46'
58'
G. Prestianni
/
D. Lukebakio
68'
ast. A. Schjelderup ·
R. Rios⚽
Cassiano
/ C. Mendes
70'
70'
G. Sudakov
/
Rafa Silva
⚽R. Brito
78'
81'
F. Ivanovic
/
A. Bah
81'
Anisio
/
E. Barrenechea
Patrick Sequeira
85'
P. Rosas
/ A. Conte
87'
R. Brito
/ J. Marques
87'
J. Livolant
/ K. Nsona
90'+3
Pre-match prediction
15.62%
Casa
15.43%
X ←
68.96%
Benfica
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
15.43%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.88
0.36
-0.52
2.60
1.67
-0.93
Benfica dominated by xG (1.67 vs 0.36).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
P. Sequeira
G
P. Sequeira
G
43
David Sousa
D
David Sousa
D
18
Geraldes
D
Geraldes
D
4
João Goulart
D
João Goulart
D
75
Pedro Rosas
87'
M
Pedro Rosas
87'
M
8
Rafael Brito
1 ⚽
87'
M
Rafael Brito
1 ⚽
87'
M
24
I. Mohamed
M
I. Mohamed
M
72
Gaizka Larrazabal
M
Gaizka Larrazabal
M
21
Tiago Morais
45'
F
Tiago Morais
45'
F
90
Cassiano
70'
F
Cassiano
70'
F
29
J. Livolant
89'
F
J. Livolant
89'
F
Bench
5
Abdu Conté
11'
D
Abdu Conté
11'
D
99
Claudio
20'
F
95
Ivan Mandić
G
Ivan Mandić
G
11
João Marques
11'
M
19
K. Prieto
F
K. Prieto
F
1
A. Trubin
G
A. Trubin
G
26
S. Dahl
D
S. Dahl
D
30
N. Otamendi
D
N. Otamendi
D
4
D
6
A. Bah
81'
D
A. Bah
81'
D
5
E. Barrenechea
81'
M
E. Barrenechea
81'
M
20
R. Rios
1 ⚽
M
R. Rios
1 ⚽
M
21
A. Schjelderup
1 👟
M
A. Schjelderup
1 👟
M
27
Rafa
70'
M
Rafa
70'
M
11
D. Lukebakio
58'
M
D. Lukebakio
58'
M
14
V. Pavlidis
F
V. Pavlidis
F
Bench
72
A. Cabral
9'
F
A. Cabral
9'
F
58
Daniel Banjaqui
D
9
F. Ivanović
9'
F
F. Ivanović
9'
F
64
Gonçalo Oliveira
D
Gonçalo Oliveira
D
25
G. Prestianni
32'
F
G. Prestianni
32'
F
10
H. Sudakov
20'
M
H. Sudakov
20'
M
Best on the pitch
A. Schjelderup
M · Benfica
7.70
1 👟
2 shots
· 43 pass
R. Rios
M · Benfica
7.60
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 65 pass
Rafael Brito
M · Casa
7.60
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 17 pass
E. Barrenechea
M · Benfica
7.20
· 53 pass
D · Benfica
7.20
· 113 pass
N. Otamendi
D · Benfica
7.20
· 82 pass
Casa Pia — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Sequeira | G | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 29 | 11% | — | 1 | — |
| David Sousa | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 9 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| Geraldes | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 11 | 3% | — | — | — |
| João Goulart | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 13 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Pedro Rosas | M | 87 | 7.00 | — | — | 2 | 6 | 4% | 2 | — | — |
| Rafael Brito | M | 87 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 1 | 17 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| I. Mohamed | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 18 | 9% | 4 | — | — |
| Gaizka Larrazabal | M | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 19 | 8% | 2 | — | — |
| Tiago Morais | F | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 5 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Cassiano | F | 70 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 10 | 4% | — | — | — |
| J. Livolant | F | 89 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 15 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Abdu Conté | D | 11 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — | — |
| Claudio | F | 20 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 5 | 1% | — | — | — |
| João Marques | M | 11 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — | — |
Benfica — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Trubin | G | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 16 | 13% | — | — | — |
| S. Dahl | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 64 | 51% | 1 | — | — |
| N. Otamendi | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 82 | 73% | — | — | — |
| D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 113 | 107% | 3 | — | — | |
| A. Bah | D | 81 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 68 | 53% | 2 | — | — |
| E. Barrenechea | M | 81 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 53 | 48% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Rios | M | 90 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 3 | 65 | 57% | 4 | — | — |
| A. Schjelderup | M | 90 | 7.70 | — | 1 | 2 | 43 | 37% | — | — | — |
| Rafa | M | 70 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 19 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
| D. Lukebakio | M | 58 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 18 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| V. Pavlidis | F | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 26 | 16% | — | — | — |
| A. Cabral | F | 9 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| F. Ivanović | F | 9 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| G. Prestianni | F | 32 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 13 | 11% | — | — | — |
| H. Sudakov | M | 20 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 17 | 15% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Casa Pia vs Benfica?
The final score was Casa Pia 1–1 Benfica.
What did the model predict before Casa Pia vs Benfica?
The model assigned 15% probability to a Casa Pia win, 15% to a draw, and 68% to an Benfica win.