Catanzaro 1–3 Mantova — pre-match prediction — Serie B — October 11, 2026

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Serie B · Regular Season - 6 October 11, 2026 15:00 Stadio Nicola Ceravolo, Catanzaro

Catanzaro

#20 · 5 pts

1 – 3

Final score

Mantova

#4 · 17 pts

Matias Antonini Lui (ast. Emanuele Pecorino) 90'+1

30' (ast. Rares Ilie) Bodin Tomašević

34' (ast. Fahem Benaissa Yahia) Francesco Ruocco

55' (ast. Alessio Castellini) Davide Bragantini

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Mantova a 37% win probability (draw 30%, Catanzaro 32%). The final result was Catanzaro 1–3 Mantova. In 2 previous meetings, Catanzaro have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Mantova.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

1.04

Actual xG

2.52

Saves

52%

Possession

48%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

18'

Stefano Cella

30'

ast. Rares Ilie · Bodin Tomašević⚽

34'

ast. Fahem Benaissa Yahia · Francesco Ruocco⚽

↕ Nicola Mosti / Franky Tchaouna

45'

↕ Ruggero Frosinini / Federico Di Francesco

45'

55'

ast. Alessio Castellini · Davide Bragantini⚽

↕ Mehdi Dorval / Marco D'Alessandro

64'

↕ Pietro Lemmello / Emanuele Pecorino

64'

66'

Ismael Cajazzo / Davide Bragantini ↕

66'

Jean-Pierre Longonda Itamba Mboyo / Rares Ilie ↕

71'

Ettore Gliozzi / Francesco Ruocco ↕

72'

Tommaso Del Lungo / Bodin Tomašević ↕

↕ Gabriele Alesi / G. Arditi

78'

83'

Sambaly Keita / Rachid Kouda ↕

Marco Ruggero

86'

⚽Matias Antonini Lui · ast. Emanuele Pecorino

90'+1

90'+3

Fahem Benaissa Yahia

Federico Di Francesco

90'+3

Pre-match prediction

32.84%

Catanzaro

30.09%

37.07%

Mantova ←

we assigned to the actual result (Mantova) 37.07% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Catanzaro

1.13

1.04

-0.09

Mantova

1.62

2.52

+0.91

Mantova dominated by xG (2.52 vs 1.04). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Palermo	8	22
2	Modena	9	19
3	Ascoli	9	18
4	Mantova	9	17
5	Benevento	9	15
6	Pisa	8	14
7	Padova	9	13
8	Sudtirol	9	13
9	Avellino	9	12
10	Cesena	9	11
11	Virtus Entella	9	10
12	Arezzo	8	10
13	Hellas Verona	8	9
14	Cremonese	9	9
15	Vicenza Virtus	9	9
16	Juve Stabia	8	8
17	Empoli	9	7
18	Carrarese	8	7
19	Sampdoria	9	5
20	Catanzaro	9	5

Lineups

Catanzaro 3-4-2-1

M. Pigliacelli G 6.51

M. Imperiale D 6.37

Matias Antonini 1 ⚽ D 7.44

M. Ruggero D 6.16

M. Dorval 64' M 5.92

J. Petriccione M 6.19

N. Mosti 45' M 5.94

R. Frosinini 45' M 6.03

G. Alesi 78' M 5.74

S. Pafundi M 5.79

P. Iemmello 64' F 6.62

Bench

A. Candela D 0.00

B. Verrengia D 0.00

C. Marietta G 0.00

E. Pecorino 1 👟 26' F 7.18

F. Di Francesco 45' F 6.79

F. Tchaouna 45' M 6.41

G. Arditi 12' F 6.30

M. D'Alessandro 26' F 6.10

N. Buso F 0.00

Niccolò Postiglione D 0.00

N. Koffi F 0.00

S. Giovane M 0.00

Mantova 3-4-3

F. Bardi G 6.62

A. Castellini 1 👟 D 7.39

S. Cella D 6.26

B. Tomašević 1 ⚽ 72' D 7.94

F. Benaissa-Yahia 1 👟 M 7.04

R. Kouda 83' M 6.92

L. Ignacchiti M 6.07

Jonathan Silva M 6.31

R. Ilie 1 👟 66' F 7.03

F. Ruocco 1 ⚽ 71' F 8.20

D. Bragantini 1 ⚽ 66' F 8.19

Bench

Cristian Marai D 0.00

D. Wieser M 0.00

E. Gliozzi 19' F 6.70

E. Košpo D 0.00

I. Cajazzo 24' M 6.45

J. Mboyo 24' M 6.78

L. Gemello G 0.00

M. Gasparini G 0.00

N. Radaelli D 0.00

S. Keita 7' M 6.43

S. Trimboli M 0.00

Best on the pitch

F. Ruocco

F · Mantova

8.20

1 ⚽

3 shots · 20 pass

D. Bragantini

F · Mantova

8.19

1 ⚽

3 shots · 21 pass

B. Tomašević

D · Mantova

7.94

1 ⚽

1 shots · 29 pass

Matias Antonini

D · Catanzaro

7.44

1 ⚽

2 shots · 52 pass

A. Castellini

D · Mantova

7.39

1 👟

3 shots · 44 pass

E. Pecorino

F · Catanzaro

7.18

1 👟

2 shots · 6 pass

Catanzaro — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
M. Pigliacelli	G	90	6.51	—	—	0	40	19%	0	—	—
M. Imperiale	D	90	6.37	—	—	1	35	31%	0	—	—
Matias Antonini	D	90	7.44	1	—	2	52	45%	1	—	—
M. Ruggero	D	90	6.16	—	—	0	51	43%	2	1	—
M. Dorval	M	64	5.92	—	—	0	19	12%	3	—	—
J. Petriccione	M	90	6.19	—	—	0	59	48%	2	—	—
N. Mosti	M	45	5.94	—	—	1	13	11%	0	—	—
R. Frosinini	M	45	6.03	—	—	1	14	10%	3	—	—
G. Alesi	M	78	5.74	—	—	2	22	17%	0	—	—
S. Pafundi	M	90	5.79	—	—	3	35	25%	0	—	—
P. Iemmello	F	64	6.62	—	—	2	9	6%	0	—	—
E. Pecorino	F	26	7.18	—	1	2	6	5%	1	—	—
F. Di Francesco	F	45	6.79	—	—	0	17	13%	0	1	—
F. Tchaouna	M	45	6.41	—	—	0	42	37%	3	—	—
G. Arditi	F	12	6.30	—	—	0	4	3%	0	—	—
M. D'Alessandro	F	26	6.10	—	—	0	12	11%	1	—	—

Mantova — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
F. Bardi	G	90	6.62	—	—	0	33	19%	0	—	—
A. Castellini	D	90	7.39	—	1	3	44	32%	5	—	—
S. Cella	D	90	6.26	—	—	0	27	21%	2	1	—
B. Tomašević	D	72	7.94	1	—	1	29	25%	1	—	—
F. Benaissa-Yahia	M	90	7.04	—	1	0	44	38%	2	1	—
R. Kouda	M	83	6.92	—	—	1	36	32%	3	—	—
L. Ignacchiti	M	90	6.07	—	—	2	47	41%	1	—	—
Jonathan Silva	M	90	6.31	—	—	0	38	29%	7	—	—
R. Ilie	F	66	7.03	—	1	2	29	20%	0	—	—
F. Ruocco	F	71	8.20	1	—	3	20	17%	1	—	—
D. Bragantini	F	66	8.19	1	—	3	21	15%	0	—	—
E. Gliozzi	F	19	6.70	—	—	0	5	4%	0	—	—
I. Cajazzo	M	24	6.45	—	—	0	9	5%	0	—	—
J. Mboyo	M	24	6.78	—	—	2	11	10%	1	—	—
S. Keita	M	7	6.43	—	—	0	5	4%	0	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Catanzaro vs Mantova?

The final score was Catanzaro 1–3 Mantova.

What did the model predict before Catanzaro vs Mantova?

The model assigned 32% probability to a Catanzaro win, 30% to a draw, and 37% to an Mantova win.