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Serie B · Semi-finals May 17, 2026 20:00 Stadio Nicola Ceravolo, Catanzaro
Catanzaro
#15 · 0 pts
3 – 0
Final score
Palermo
#17 · 0 pts
P. Iemmello (ast. T. Cassandro) 1'
P. Iemmello (ast. N. Brighenti) 15'
M. Liberali (ast. P. Iemmello) 41'
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Catanzaro a 47% win probability (draw 22%, Palermo 29%). The final result was Catanzaro 3–0 Palermo. In 3 previous meetings, Catanzaro have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 2 wins for Palermo.

Match statistics
11
Total shots
8
6
Shots on target
1
1.30
Actual xG
0.44
2
Saves
3
45%
Possession
55%
6
Corners
2
4
Tackles
12
1
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
⚽P. Iemmello · ast. T. Cassandro
1'
⚽P. Iemmello · ast. N. Brighenti
15'
32'
F. Ranocchia
⚽M. Liberali · ast. P. Iemmello
41'
45'+4
N. Pierozzi
46'
E. Gyasi / N. Pierozzi ↕
52'
D. Johnsen / J. Le Douaron ↕
59'
T. Augello
60'
A. Blin / F. Ranocchia ↕
61'
R. Modesto / T. Augello ↕
↕ S. Pontisso / M. Pompetti
76'
↕ M. Liberali / R. Frosinini
76'
↕ P. Iemmello / F. Di Francesco
85'
↕ G. Alesi / F. Rispoli
85'
88'
S. Giovane / J. Segre ↕
R. Frosinini
90'+2
Pre-match prediction
47.99%
Catanzaro ←
22.1%
X
29.9%
Palermo
we assigned to the actual result (Catanzaro) 47.99% (medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Catanzaro
2.04
1.30
-0.74
Palermo
1.40
0.44
-0.96
Catanzaro dominated by xG (1.30 vs 0.44). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
Catanzaro Catanzaro 3-4-2-1
22 Mirko Pigliacelli Mirko Pigliacelli G 7.50
23 Nicolò Brighenti Nicolò Brighenti 1 👟 D 7.30
4 Matias Antonini Matias Antonini D 6.90
84 Tommaso Cassandro Tommaso Cassandro 1 👟 D 7.70
30 Gabriele Alesi Gabriele Alesi 85' M 6.60
20 S. Pontisso S. Pontisso 76' M 6.90
10 J. Petriccione J. Petriccione M 6.90
27 Costantino Favasuli Costantino Favasuli M 6.60
9 P. Iemmello P. Iemmello 2 ⚽ 1 👟 85' F 9.00
14 Mattia Liberali Mattia Liberali 1 ⚽ 76' F 7.30
8 F. Pittarello F. Pittarello F 6.90
Bench
26 Bruno Verrengia Bruno Verrengia D
1 Christian Marietta Christian Marietta G
98 Davide Buglio Davide Buglio M
5 Ervin Bashi Ervin Bashi D
32 Fabio Rispoli Fabio Rispoli 12' M 6.90
94 Federico Di Francesco Federico Di Francesco 12' F 6.50
6 Fellipe Jack Fellipe Jack D
77 Marco D'Alessandro Marco D'Alessandro F
21 Marco Pompetti Marco Pompetti 14' M 6.90
19 P. Nuamah P. Nuamah F
28 Rémi Oudin Rémi Oudin M
62 R. Frosinini R. Frosinini 14' D 6.30
Palermo Palermo 3-4-2-1
66 Jesse Joronen Jesse Joronen G 6.90
32 Pietro Ceccaroni Pietro Ceccaroni D 6.30
96 Giangiacomo Magnani Giangiacomo Magnani D 5.90
29 Patryk Peda Patryk Peda D 5.60
3 Tommaso Augello Tommaso Augello 61' M 6.20
10 Filippo Ranocchia Filippo Ranocchia 60' M 6.50
8 Jacopo Segre Jacopo Segre 88' M 6.30
27 N. Pierozzi N. Pierozzi 45' M 6.70
5 A. Palumbo A. Palumbo F 7.30
21 Jérémy Le Douaron Jérémy Le Douaron 52' F 6.30
20 J. Pohjanpalo J. Pohjanpalo F 6.20
Bench
28 Alexis Blin Alexis Blin 30' M 6.70
1 Alfred Gomis Alfred Gomis G
14 Aljoša Vasić Aljoša Vasić M
6 Claudio Gomes Claudio Gomes M
72 Davide Veroli Davide Veroli D
7 Dennis Johnsen Dennis Johnsen 38' F 6.30
11 Emmanuel Gyasi Emmanuel Gyasi 45' D 6.30
77 Francesco Di Bartolo Zuccarello Francesco Di Bartolo Zuccarello G
31 Giacomo Corona Giacomo Corona F
13 M. Bani M. Bani D
18 Rui Modesto Rui Modesto 29' M 7.00
17 Samuel Giovane Samuel Giovane 9' M 6.70
Best on the pitch
P. Iemmello
P. Iemmello
F · Catanzaro
9.00
2 ⚽ 1 👟
2 shots · 37 pass
Tommaso Cassandro
Tommaso Cassandro
D · Catanzaro
7.70
1 👟
· 39 pass
Mirko Pigliacelli
Mirko Pigliacelli
G · Catanzaro
7.50
· 44 pass
Nicolò Brighenti
Nicolò Brighenti
D · Catanzaro
7.30
1 👟
1 shots · 39 pass
Mattia Liberali
Mattia Liberali
F · Catanzaro
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 26 pass
A. Palumbo
A. Palumbo
F · Palermo
7.30
2 shots · 50 pass
Catanzaro Catanzaro — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Mirko Pigliacelli G 90 7.50 — — — 44 30% — — —
Nicolò Brighenti D 90 7.30 — 1 1 39 31% — — —
Matias Antonini D 90 6.90 — — — 33 26% — — —
Tommaso Cassandro D 90 7.70 — 1 — 39 32% 1 — —
Gabriele Alesi M 85 6.60 — — 1 16 12% 1 — —
S. Pontisso M 76 6.90 — — 2 38 33% — — —
J. Petriccione M 90 6.90 — — — 55 49% — — —
Costantino Favasuli M 90 6.60 — — — 17 13% — — —
P. Iemmello F 85 9.00 2 1 2 37 31% — — —
Mattia Liberali F 76 7.30 1 — 1 26 20% 1 — —
F. Pittarello F 90 6.90 — — 2 14 7% — — —
Fabio Rispoli M 12 6.90 — — — 2 1% — — —
Federico Di Francesco F 12 6.50 — — — — — — — —
Marco Pompetti M 14 6.90 — — 1 8 6% 1 — —
R. Frosinini D 14 6.30 — — 1 2 1% — 1 —
Palermo Palermo — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Jesse Joronen G 90 6.90 — — — 30 23% — — —
Pietro Ceccaroni D 90 6.30 — — 2 70 57% 2 — —
Giangiacomo Magnani D 90 5.90 — — — 53 40% 1 — —
Patryk Peda D 90 5.60 — — 1 38 32% 3 — —
Tommaso Augello M 61 6.20 — — — 34 22% — 1 —
Filippo Ranocchia M 60 6.50 — — — 49 43% 1 1 —
Jacopo Segre M 88 6.30 — — — 30 27% — — —
N. Pierozzi M 45 6.70 — — — 9 6% 1 1 —
A. Palumbo F 90 7.30 — — 2 50 36% 1 — —
Jérémy Le Douaron F 52 6.30 — — — 8 6% — — —
J. Pohjanpalo F 90 6.20 — — 1 21 14% — — —
Alexis Blin M 30 6.70 — — 1 24 19% — — —
Dennis Johnsen F 38 6.30 — — — 10 6% — — —
Emmanuel Gyasi D 45 6.30 — — — 19 17% 1 — —
Rui Modesto M 29 7.00 — — 1 4 4% 2 — —
Samuel Giovane M 9 6.70 — — — — — — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Catanzaro vs Palermo?
The final score was Catanzaro 3–0 Palermo.
What did the model predict before Catanzaro vs Palermo?
The model assigned 47% probability to a Catanzaro win, 22% to a draw, and 29% to an Palermo win.