Brasileirão Série B
· Regular Season - 9
May 17, 2026 23:30
Melk
(ast. Enzo Lodovico)
58'
Julio Cesar
(ast. Melk)
68'
(pen.)
28'
Mailton
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Ceara a 35% win probability (draw 34%, Fortaleza EC 29%). The final result was Ceara 2–1 Fortaleza EC.
Match statistics
7
Total shots
15
5
Shots on target
5
0.79
Actual xG
1.64
4
Saves
3
50%
Possession
50%
3
Corners
2
10
Tackles
15
3
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
28'
(pen.)
Mailton⚽
40'
Vitinho
45'+3
J. B. Miritello
Fernando
/ Sanchez
46'
46'
Luan Freitas
Alex Silva
50'
Alex Silva
/ Enzo Lodovico
53'
⚽Melk
· ast. Enzo Lodovico
58'
Gustavo Prado
/ Giulio
60'
Fernandinho
/ Matheus Araujo
60'
62'
Rodriguinho
/
Vitinho
⚽Julio Cesar
· ast. Melk
68'
74'
Paulo Baya
/
Ronald
75'
Welliton
/
T. Pochettino
Diego
77'
Diego
/ Lucas Lima
79'
86'
Lucca Prior
/
Rodrigo
Enzo Lodovico
90'+3
90'+5
Lucas Sasha
Pre-match prediction
35.63%
Ceara ←
34.91%
X
29.46%
Fortaleza
we assigned to the actual result (Ceara)
35.63%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.17
0.79
-0.38
0.94
1.64
+0.7
Fortaleza EC dominated by xG (1.64 vs 0.79).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
94
Bruno Ferreira
G
Bruno Ferreira
G
17
Fernando
45'
D
Fernando
45'
D
4
Luiz Otávio
D
Luiz Otávio
D
33
Éder
D
Éder
D
21
Alex Silva
53'
D
Alex Silva
53'
D
18
Júlio César
1 ⚽
M
Júlio César
1 ⚽
M
20
Dieguinho
79'
M
Dieguinho
79'
M
30
Gustavo Prado
60'
M
Gustavo Prado
60'
M
81
João Gabriel
M
João Gabriel
M
40
Melk
1 ⚽
1 👟
M
Melk
1 ⚽
1 👟
M
11
Fernandinho
60'
F
Fernandinho
60'
F
Bench
60
Enzo Valentim Lodovico
1 👟
37'
F
Enzo Valentim Lodovico
1 👟
37'
F
35
Giulio
30'
F
Giulio
30'
F
41
Gustavo Dias Martins
G
Gustavo Dias Martins
G
10
Juan Alano
F
Juan Alano
F
90
Kauã Ziegler
F
Kauã Ziegler
F
31
Lucas Lima
11'
M
Lucas Lima
11'
M
8
Matheus Araújo
30'
M
Matheus Araújo
30'
M
98
Matheusinho
M
Matheusinho
M
80
Pedro Esli da Silva
M
Pedro Esli da Silva
M
63
Pedro Gilmar
D
Pedro Gilmar
D
2
Rafael Ramos
D
Rafael Ramos
D
12
Sanchez
45'
D
Sanchez
45'
D
25
Vinicius Silvestre
G
Vinicius Silvestre
G
3
Lucas Gazal
D
Lucas Gazal
D
8
Ronald
75'
D
Ronald
75'
D
4
Luan Freitas
D
Luan Freitas
D
13
Maurício Júnior
M
Maurício Júnior
M
29
Rodrigo Santos
87'
M
Rodrigo Santos
87'
M
88
Lucas Sasha
M
Lucas Sasha
M
22
Maílton
1 ⚽
M
Maílton
1 ⚽
M
11
Vitinho
63'
F
Vitinho
63'
F
7
Tomás Pochettino
74'
F
Tomás Pochettino
74'
F
9
J. Miritello
F
J. Miritello
F
Bench
18
Gabriel Fuentes
D
Gabriel Fuentes
D
1
João Ricardo
G
João Ricardo
G
33
Kauã Rocha
D
Kauã Rocha
D
99
Kayke
F
Kayke
F
10
Lucas Crispim
M
Lucas Crispim
M
19
Lucas Emanoel
F
Lucas Emanoel
F
38
Lucca Prior
12'
M
Lucca Prior
12'
M
20
Matheus Rossetto
M
Matheus Rossetto
M
28
Paulinho
D
Paulinho
D
77
Paulo Baya
15'
F
Paulo Baya
15'
F
75
Rodriguinho
27'
M
Rodriguinho
27'
M
31
Welliton
16'
F
Welliton
16'
F
Best on the pitch
Melk
M · Ceara
8.30
1 ⚽ 1 👟
2 shots
· 16 pass
Maurício Júnior
M · Fortaleza
7.30
2 shots
· 43 pass
João Gabriel
M · Ceara
7.30
· 20 pass
Maílton
M · Fortaleza
7.20
1 ⚽
6 shots
· 23 pass
Bruno Ferreira
G · Ceara
7.20
· 22 pass
Júlio César
M · Ceara
7.00
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 35 pass
Ceara — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Ferreira | G | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 22 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Fernando | D | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 31 | 26% | 1 | — | — |
| Luiz Otávio | D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 54 | 45% | — | — | — |
| Éder | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 57 | 51% | 1 | — | — |
| Alex Silva | D | 53 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 30 | 27% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Júlio César | M | 90 | 7.00 | 1 | — | 1 | 35 | 28% | — | — | — |
| Dieguinho | M | 79 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 32 | 30% | — | 1 | — |
| Gustavo Prado | M | 60 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 13 | 11% | — | — | — |
| João Gabriel | M | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 20 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| Melk | M | 90 | 8.30 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Fernandinho | F | 60 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 10 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| Enzo Valentim Lodovico | F | 37 | 6.90 | — | 1 | — | 4 | 4% | — | 1 | — |
| Giulio | F | 30 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Lucas Lima | M | 11 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 4 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Matheus Araújo | M | 30 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 12 | 6% | 3 | — | — |
| Sanchez | D | 45 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 16 | 9% | 2 | — | — |
Fortaleza EC — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinicius Silvestre | G | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 20 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Lucas Gazal | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 54 | 46% | — | — | — |
| Ronald | D | 75 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 26 | 25% | 4 | — | — |
| Luan Freitas | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 36 | 32% | — | — | — |
| Maurício Júnior | M | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | 2 | 43 | 33% | 2 | — | — |
| Rodrigo Santos | M | 87 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 41 | 38% | 2 | — | — |
| Lucas Sasha | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 32 | 30% | 4 | 1 | — |
| Maílton | M | 90 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 6 | 23 | 16% | — | 1 | — |
| Vitinho | F | 63 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 12 | 10% | — | 1 | — |
| Tomás Pochettino | F | 74 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 15 | 9% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Miritello | F | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 17 | 13% | — | 1 | — |
| Lucca Prior | M | 12 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 6 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Paulo Baya | F | 15 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 9 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Rodriguinho | M | 27 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 10 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| Welliton | F | 16 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 5 | 3% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Ceara vs Fortaleza EC?
The final score was Ceara 2–1 Fortaleza EC.
What did the model predict before Ceara vs Fortaleza EC?
The model assigned 35% probability to a Ceara win, 34% to a draw, and 29% to an Fortaleza EC win.