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← Brasileirão Série B
Brasileirão Série B · Regular Season - 9 May 17, 2026 23:30
Ceara
#16 · 43 pts
2 – 1
Final score
Fortaleza EC
#5 · 62 pts
Melk (ast. Enzo Lodovico) 58'
Julio Cesar (ast. Melk) 68'
(pen.) 28' Mailton
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Ceara a 35% win probability (draw 34%, Fortaleza EC 29%). The final result was Ceara 2–1 Fortaleza EC. In 1 previous meetings, Ceara have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Fortaleza EC.

Match statistics
7
Total shots
15
5
Shots on target
5
0.79
Actual xG
1.64
4
Saves
3
50%
Possession
50%
3
Corners
2
10
Tackles
15
3
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
28'
(pen.) Mailton⚽
40'
Vitinho
45'+3
J. B. Miritello
↕ Fernando / Sanchez
46'
46'
Luan Freitas
Alex Silva
50'
↕ Alex Silva / Enzo Lodovico
53'
⚽Melk · ast. Enzo Lodovico
58'
↕ Gustavo Prado / Giulio
60'
↕ Fernandinho / Matheus Araujo
60'
62'
Rodriguinho / Vitinho ↕
⚽Julio Cesar · ast. Melk
68'
74'
Paulo Baya / Ronald ↕
75'
Welliton / T. Pochettino ↕
Diego
77'
↕ Diego / Lucas Lima
79'
86'
Lucca Prior / Rodrigo ↕
Enzo Lodovico
90'+3
90'+5
Lucas Sasha
Pre-match prediction
35.63%
Ceara ←
34.91%
X
29.46%
Fortaleza
we assigned to the actual result (Ceara) 35.63% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Ceara
1.17
0.79
-0.38
Fortaleza
0.94
1.64
+0.7
Fortaleza EC dominated by xG (1.64 vs 0.79). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Novorizontino Novorizontino 36 67
2 Juventude Juventude 36 65
3 Vila Nova Vila Nova 36 63
4 Criciuma Criciuma 36 62
5 Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC 36 62
6 CRB CRB 36 55
7 Goias Goias 36 55
8 Sport Recife Sport Recife 36 55
9 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense 36 55
10 São Bernardo São Bernardo 36 52
11 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP 37 51
12 Operario-PR Operario-PR 36 51
13 Cuiaba Cuiaba 36 47
14 Athletic Club Athletic Club 36 47
15 Nautico Recife Nautico Recife 36 46
16 Ceara Ceara 36 43
17 Avai Avai 36 37
18 Londrina Londrina 37 32
19 America Mineiro America Mineiro 36 26
20 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 36 15
Lineups
Ceara Ceara 4-2-3-1
94 Bruno Ferreira Bruno Ferreira G 7.20
17 Fernando Fernando 45' D 6.70
4 Luiz Otávio Luiz Otávio D 6.50
33 Éder Éder D 6.60
21 Alex Silva Alex Silva 53' D 6.90
18 Júlio Júlio 1 ⚽ M 7.00
20 Dieguinho Dieguinho 79' M 6.50
30 Gustavo Prado Gustavo Prado 60' M 6.20
81 Joao Gabriel Joao Gabriel M 7.30
40 Melk Melk 1 ⚽ 1 👟 M 8.30
11 Fernandinho Fernandinho 60' F 6.20
Bench
60 Enzo Enzo 1 👟 37' F 6.90
41 G. Dias G. Dias G
35 Giulio Giulio 30' F 6.30
10 Juan Alano Juan Alano F
90 Kauã Ziegler Kauã Ziegler F
31 Lucas Lima Lucas Lima 11' M 6.30
8 Matheus Araújo Matheus Araújo 30' M 6.90
98 Matheusinho Matheusinho M
63 Pedro Gilmar Pedro Gilmar D
80 P. Esli P. Esli M
2 Rafael Ramos Rafael Ramos D
12 Sanchez Sanchez 45' D 6.90
Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC 3-4-2-1
25 Vinícius Silvestre Vinícius Silvestre G 6.90
3 Lucas Gazal Lucas Gazal D 6.90
8 Ronald Ronald 75' D 6.60
4 Luan Luan D 6.70
13 Mauricio Junior Mauricio Junior M 7.30
29 Rodrigo Rodrigo 87' M 6.70
88 Lucas Sasha Lucas Sasha M 6.90
22 Maílton Maílton 1 ⚽ M 7.20
11 Vitinho Vitinho 63' F 6.50
7 Tomás Pochettino Tomás Pochettino 74' F 6.90
9 J. Miritello J. Miritello F 6.60
Bench
18 G. Fuentes G. Fuentes D
1 João Ricardo João Ricardo G
33 Kauã Rocha Kauã Rocha D
99 Kayke Kayke F
10 Lucas Crispim Lucas Crispim M
19 Lucas Emanoel Lucas Emanoel F
38 Lucca Lucca 12' M 6.90
20 Matheus Rossetto Matheus Rossetto M
28 Paulinho Paulinho D
77 Paulo Baya Paulo Baya 15' F 6.90
75 Rodriguinho Rodriguinho 27' M 6.50
31 Welliton Welliton 16' F 6.70
Best on the pitch
Melk
Melk
M · Ceara
8.30
1 ⚽ 1 👟
2 shots · 16 pass
Mauricio Junior
Mauricio Junior
M · Fortaleza
7.30
2 shots · 43 pass
Joao Gabriel
Joao Gabriel
M · Ceara
7.30
· 20 pass
Maílton
Maílton
M · Fortaleza
7.20
1 ⚽
6 shots · 23 pass
Bruno Ferreira
Bruno Ferreira
G · Ceara
7.20
· 22 pass
Júlio
Júlio
M · Ceara
7.00
1 ⚽
1 shots · 35 pass
Ceara Ceara — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Bruno Ferreira G 90 7.20 — — — 22 14% — — —
Fernando D 45 6.70 — — — 31 26% 1 — —
Luiz Otávio D 90 6.50 — — 1 54 45% — — —
Éder D 90 6.60 — — — 57 51% 1 — —
Alex Silva D 53 6.90 — — — 30 27% 1 1 —
Júlio M 90 7.00 1 — 1 35 28% — — —
Dieguinho M 79 6.50 — — — 32 30% — 1 —
Gustavo Prado M 60 6.20 — — — 13 11% — — —
Joao Gabriel M 90 7.30 — — — 20 15% 1 — —
Melk M 90 8.30 1 1 2 16 11% — — —
Fernandinho F 60 6.20 — — — 10 5% 1 — —
Enzo F 37 6.90 — 1 — 4 4% — 1 —
Giulio F 30 6.30 — — — 2 2% — — —
Lucas Lima M 11 6.30 — — — 4 3% — — —
Matheus Araújo M 30 6.90 — — 2 12 6% 3 — —
Sanchez D 45 6.90 — — 1 16 9% 2 — —
Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Vinícius Silvestre G 90 6.90 — — — 20 13% — — —
Lucas Gazal D 90 6.90 — — — 54 46% — — —
Ronald D 75 6.60 — — — 26 25% 4 — —
Luan D 90 6.70 — — 1 36 32% — — —
Mauricio Junior M 90 7.30 — — 2 43 33% 2 — —
Rodrigo M 87 6.70 — — — 41 38% 2 — —
Lucas Sasha M 90 6.90 — — — 32 30% 4 1 —
Maílton M 90 7.20 1 — 6 23 16% — 1 —
Vitinho F 63 6.50 — — 1 12 10% — 1 —
Tomás Pochettino F 74 6.90 — — 2 15 9% 2 — —
J. Miritello F 90 6.60 — — 2 17 13% — 1 —
Lucca M 12 6.90 — — 1 6 5% — — —
Paulo Baya F 15 6.90 — — — 9 8% — — —
Rodriguinho M 27 6.50 — — — 10 8% 1 — —
Welliton F 16 6.70 — — — 5 3% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Ceara vs Fortaleza EC?
The final score was Ceara 2–1 Fortaleza EC.
What did the model predict before Ceara vs Fortaleza EC?
The model assigned 35% probability to a Ceara win, 34% to a draw, and 29% to an Fortaleza EC win.