Ceara 3–3 Vila Nova — pre-match prediction — Brasileirão Série B — April 27, 2026

← Brasileirão Série B

Brasileirão Série B · Regular Season - 6 April 27, 2026 01:00

Ceara

#14 · 10 pts

3 – 3

Final score

Vila Nova

#5 · 13 pts

Lucas Lima 15'

Matheus Araujo (ast. Melk) 44'

Matheus Araujo (ast. Lucca) 45'+3

13' (ast. Janderson) Rafa Silva

(pen.) 63' Joao Vieira

67' Rafa Silva

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Ceara a 35% win probability (draw 31%, Vila Nova 33%). The final result was Ceara 3–3 Vila Nova.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

1.02

Actual xG

1.70

Saves

46%

Possession

54%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

13'

ast. Janderson · Rafa Silva⚽

⚽Lucas Lima

15'

Wendel Silva

23'

↕ Wendel Silva / Lucca

28'

⚽Matheus Araujo · ast. Melk

44'

⚽Matheus Araujo · ast. Lucca

45'+3

46'

Hayner / Caio Marcelo ↕

46'

Anderson Jesus / Elias ↕

52'

Willian Formiga

57'

Higor / Willian Formiga ↕

58'

Willian Maranhao

63'

(pen.) Joao Vieira⚽

↕ Fernandinho / Pedro Henrique

63'

67'

Rafa Silva⚽

↕ Lucas Lima / Julio Cesar

69'

↕ Matheus Araujo / Juan Alano

69'

↕ Vinicius Zanocelo / Joao Gabriel

69'

77'

Nathan Camargo / Willian Maranhao ↕

83'

Tiago Pagnussat

84'

S. Nunes / Tiago Pagnussat ↕

Pre-match prediction

35.71%

Ceara

31.25%

X ←

33.04%

Vila

we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 31.25% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Ceara

1.21

1.02

-0.19

Vila

1.34

1.70

+0.36

Vila Nova dominated by xG (1.70 vs 1.02). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	São Bernardo	8	16
2	Sport Recife	8	16
3	Fortaleza EC	8	15
4	Nautico Recife	8	13
5	Vila Nova	8	13
6	Novorizontino	8	12
7	Criciuma	8	12
8	Operario-PR	8	12
9	Juventude	8	12
10	Atletico Goianiense	8	11
11	Goias	8	10
12	Avai	8	10
13	Athletic Club	8	10
14	Ceara	8	10
15	Botafogo SP	8	9
16	Cuiaba	8	9
17	CRB	8	8
18	Ponte Preta	8	7
19	Londrina	8	5
20	America Mineiro	8	2

Lineups

Ceara 4-2-3-1

Bruno Ferreira G 6.20

Sánchez D 6.20

D 6.20

D 6.50

D 5.70

Vinicius Zanocelo 69' M 6.20

Lucas Lima 1 ⚽ 69' M 6.90

Fernandinho 63' M 6.90

Matheus Araújo 2 ⚽ 69' M 8.60

Melk 1 👟 M 6.30

Wendel Silva 28' F 6.30

Bench

Alex Silva D

Dieguinho D

Fernando D

João Gabriel 31' M 6.90

Juan Alano 31' F 6.60

Júlio César 31' D 6.90

Lucca 1 👟 72' F 6.90

Richardson M

Vina M

Vila Nova 4-2-3-1

G 6.50

Willian Formiga 57' D 5.60

Caio Marcelo 45' D 6.00

Tiago Pagnussat 84' D 6.20

Elias 45' D 5.70

João Vieira 1 ⚽ M 6.90

Willian Maranhão 77' M 5.90

Janderson 1 👟 M 7.30

Marquinhos Gabriel M 6.90

Ryan Lima M 5.60

Rafael Silva 2 ⚽ F 8.20

Bench

Gustavo Puskas F

Hayner 55' D 6.60

Higor 43' D 6.90

Best on the pitch

Matheus Araújo

M · Ceara

8.60

2 ⚽

2 shots · 16 pass

Rafael Silva

F · Vila

8.20

2 ⚽

4 shots · 10 pass

Janderson

M · Vila

7.30

1 👟

1 shots · 26 pass

João Vieira

M · Vila

6.90

1 ⚽

1 shots · 37 pass

Marquinhos Gabriel

M · Vila

6.90

· 34 pass

João Gabriel

M · Ceara

6.90

· 10 pass

Ceara — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Bruno Ferreira	G	100	6.20	—	—	—	12	7%	—	—	—
Sánchez	D	100	6.20	—	—	—	42	33%	2	—	—
	D	100	6.20	—	—	1	40	32%	1	—	—
	D	100	6.50	—	—	—	38	29%	—	—	—
	D	100	5.70	—	—	—	29	23%	1	—	—
Vinicius Zanocelo	M	69	6.20	—	—	—	25	22%	1	—	—
Lucas Lima	M	69	6.90	1	—	1	18	15%	1	—	—
Fernandinho	M	63	6.90	—	—	—	8	5%	4	—	—
Matheus Araújo	M	69	8.60	2	—	2	16	13%	—	—	—
Melk	M	100	6.30	—	1	—	24	17%	2	—	—
Wendel Silva	F	28	6.30	—	—	1	5	4%	—	1	—
João Gabriel	M	31	6.90	—	—	—	10	5%	3	—	—
Juan Alano	F	31	6.60	—	—	1	15	11%	—	—	—
Júlio César	D	31	6.90	—	—	—	18	15%	—	—	—
Lucca	F	72	6.90	—	1	1	20	14%	1	—	—

Vila Nova — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	100	6.50	—	—	—	39	22%	—	—	—
Willian Formiga	D	57	5.60	—	—	—	35	29%	—	1	—
Caio Marcelo	D	45	6.00	—	—	—	26	23%	2	—	—
Tiago Pagnussat	D	84	6.20	—	—	—	60	54%	2	1	—
Elias	D	45	5.70	—	—	—	11	8%	1	—	—
João Vieira	M	100	6.90	1	—	1	37	33%	1	—	—
Willian Maranhão	M	77	5.90	—	—	—	32	28%	1	1	—
Janderson	M	100	7.30	—	1	1	26	22%	2	—	—
Marquinhos Gabriel	M	100	6.90	—	—	—	34	29%	1	—	—
Ryan Lima	M	100	5.60	—	—	—	17	11%	1	—	—
Rafael Silva	F	100	8.20	2	—	4	10	7%	—	—	—
Hayner	D	55	6.60	—	—	—	24	24%	—	—	—
Higor	D	43	6.90	—	—	—	7	4%	2	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Ceara vs Vila Nova?

The final score was Ceara 3–3 Vila Nova.

What did the model predict before Ceara vs Vila Nova?

The model assigned 35% probability to a Ceara win, 31% to a draw, and 33% to an Vila Nova win.