Ceara 3–3 Vila Nova — pre-match prediction — Brasileirão Série B — April 26, 2026

← Brasileirão Série B

Brasileirão Série B · Regular Season - 6 April 26, 2026 23:00

Ceara

#15 · 36 pts

3 – 3

Final score

Vila Nova

#2 · 54 pts

Lucas Lima 15'

Matheus Araujo (ast. Melk) 44'

Matheus Araujo (ast. Lucca) 45'+3

13' (ast. Janderson) Rafa Silva

(pen.) 63' Joao Vieira

67' Rafa Silva

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Ceara a 35% win probability (draw 31%, Vila Nova 33%). The final result was Ceara 3–3 Vila Nova. In 1 previous meetings, Ceara have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Vila Nova.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

1.02

Actual xG

1.70

Saves

46%

Possession

54%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

13'

ast. Janderson · Rafa Silva⚽

⚽Lucas Lima

15'

Wendel Silva

23'

↕ Wendel Silva / Lucca

28'

⚽Matheus Araujo · ast. Melk

44'

⚽Matheus Araujo · ast. Lucca

45'+3

46'

Hayner / Caio Marcelo ↕

46'

Anderson Jesus / Elias ↕

52'

Willian Formiga

57'

Higor / Willian Formiga ↕

58'

Willian Maranhao

63'

(pen.) Joao Vieira⚽

↕ Fernandinho / Pedro Henrique

63'

67'

Rafa Silva⚽

↕ Lucas Lima / Julio Cesar

69'

↕ Matheus Araujo / Juan Alano

69'

↕ Vinicius Zanocelo / Joao Gabriel

69'

77'

Nathan Camargo / Willian Maranhao ↕

83'

Tiago Pagnussat

84'

S. Nunes / Tiago Pagnussat ↕

Pre-match prediction

35.71%

Ceara

31.25%

X ←

33.04%

Vila

we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 31.25% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Ceara

1.21

1.02

-0.19

Vila

1.34

1.70

+0.36

Vila Nova dominated by xG (1.70 vs 1.02). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Juventude	31	56
2	Vila Nova	30	54
3	Novorizontino	31	54
4	Criciuma	31	53
5	Fortaleza EC	31	53
6	Atletico Goianiense	30	49
7	CRB	31	48
8	Operario-PR	31	48
9	Sport Recife	31	47
10	São Bernardo	31	45
11	Cuiaba	30	43
12	Goias	31	42
13	Nautico Recife	31	42
14	Athletic Club	31	42
15	Ceara	30	36
16	Botafogo SP	30	35
17	Avai	30	30
18	Londrina	31	28
19	America Mineiro	30	17
20	Ponte Preta	30	13

Lineups

Ceara 4-2-3-1

Bruno Ferreira G 6.20

Sanchez D 6.20

D 6.20

D 6.50

D 5.70

Vinicius Zanocelo 69' M 6.20

Lucas Lima 1 ⚽ 69' M 6.90

Fernandinho 63' M 6.90

Matheus Araújo 2 ⚽ 69' M 8.60

Melk 1 👟 M 6.30

Wendel 28' F 6.30

Bench

Alex Silva D

Dieguinho D

Fernando D

Joao Gabriel 31' M 6.90

Juan Alano 31' F 6.60

Júlio 31' D 6.90

Lucca 1 👟 72' F 6.90

Richardson M

Vina M

Vila Nova 4-2-3-1

G 6.50

Willian Formiga 57' D 5.60

Caio Marcelo 45' D 6.00

Tiago Pagnussat 84' D 6.20

Elias 45' D 5.70

João Vieira 1 ⚽ M 6.90

Willian Maranhão 77' M 5.90

Janderson 1 👟 M 7.30

Marquinhos Gabriel M 6.90

Ryan Lima M 5.60

Rafa Silva 2 ⚽ F 8.20

Bench

Hayner 55' D 6.60

Higor 43' D 6.90

Puskas Gustavo F

Best on the pitch

Matheus Araújo

M · Ceara

8.60

2 ⚽

2 shots · 16 pass

Rafa Silva

F · Vila

8.20

2 ⚽

4 shots · 10 pass

Janderson

M · Vila

7.30

1 👟

1 shots · 26 pass

João Vieira

M · Vila

6.90

1 ⚽

1 shots · 37 pass

Marquinhos Gabriel

M · Vila

6.90

· 34 pass

Joao Gabriel

M · Ceara

6.90

· 10 pass

Ceara — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Bruno Ferreira	G	100	6.20	—	—	—	12	7%	—	—	—
Sanchez	D	100	6.20	—	—	—	42	33%	2	—	—
	D	100	6.20	—	—	1	40	32%	1	—	—
	D	100	6.50	—	—	—	38	29%	—	—	—
	D	100	5.70	—	—	—	29	23%	1	—	—
Vinicius Zanocelo	M	69	6.20	—	—	—	25	22%	1	—	—
Lucas Lima	M	69	6.90	1	—	1	18	15%	1	—	—
Fernandinho	M	63	6.90	—	—	—	8	5%	4	—	—
Matheus Araújo	M	69	8.60	2	—	2	16	13%	—	—	—
Melk	M	100	6.30	—	1	—	24	17%	2	—	—
Wendel	F	28	6.30	—	—	1	5	4%	—	1	—
Joao Gabriel	M	31	6.90	—	—	—	10	5%	3	—	—
Juan Alano	F	31	6.60	—	—	1	15	11%	—	—	—
Júlio	D	31	6.90	—	—	—	18	15%	—	—	—
Lucca	F	72	6.90	—	1	1	20	14%	1	—	—

Vila Nova — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	100	6.50	—	—	—	39	22%	—	—	—
Willian Formiga	D	57	5.60	—	—	—	35	29%	—	1	—
Caio Marcelo	D	45	6.00	—	—	—	26	23%	2	—	—
Tiago Pagnussat	D	84	6.20	—	—	—	60	54%	2	1	—
Elias	D	45	5.70	—	—	—	11	8%	1	—	—
João Vieira	M	100	6.90	1	—	1	37	33%	1	—	—
Willian Maranhão	M	77	5.90	—	—	—	32	28%	1	1	—
Janderson	M	100	7.30	—	1	1	26	22%	2	—	—
Marquinhos Gabriel	M	100	6.90	—	—	—	34	29%	1	—	—
Ryan Lima	M	100	5.60	—	—	—	17	11%	1	—	—
Rafa Silva	F	100	8.20	2	—	4	10	7%	—	—	—
Hayner	D	55	6.60	—	—	—	24	24%	—	—	—
Higor	D	43	6.90	—	—	—	7	4%	2	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Ceara vs Vila Nova?

The final score was Ceara 3–3 Vila Nova.

What did the model predict before Ceara vs Vila Nova?

The model assigned 35% probability to a Ceara win, 31% to a draw, and 33% to an Vila Nova win.