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← Brasileirão Série D

Ceilândia - Luverdense

Brasileirão Série D June 20, 2026 21:00
Ceilândia
#3 · 12 pts
vs
Luverdense
#2 · 15 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
43.77%
Win
Ceilândia
25.93%
Draw
30.3%
Win
Luverdense
1.77
Expected xG
1.31
Most likely result 1–1 (10.7%)
2+ goals
70%
3+ goals
59%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Ceilândia a 43% win probability, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Luverdense. Expected goals are 1.8 for Ceilândia and 1.3 for Luverdense (total 3.1), with a 69% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 10.7% probability.

Season Stats

Ceilândia
3W 3D 4L
Luverdense
4W 3D 3L
Averages per game
0.9
Goals
1.1
1.0
Conceded
1.0
Percentages
50%
O 1.5
60%
30%
O 2.5
40%
50%
BTTS
40%
30%
Clean Sht
40%
ℹ Based on the last 10 matches in Brasileirão Série D. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
50%
O 1.5
30%
O 2.5
10%
O 3.5
40%
BTTS
Ceilândia
1W 2D 2L · at home
Luverdense
2W 1D 2L · away
0.6
gls/g
0.8
0.8
Conceded
1.4
20%
Win %
40%
60%
Win or Draw
60%
40%
O 1.5
60%
20%
O 2.5
40%
0%
O 3.5
20%
40%
BTTS
40%
40%
Clean Sht
20%
40%
Failed to Score
40%
last 5
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Ceilândia Luverdense →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.6% 6.0% 4.0% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1%
1 8.1% 10.7% 7.0% 3.1% 1.0% 0.3%
2 7.2% 9.4% 6.2% 2.7% 0.9% 0.2%
3 4.2% 5.6% 3.6% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1%
4 1.9% 2.5% 1.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.7% 0.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% —

Recent form

Ceilândia Ceilândia
D Mixto 1–1
D Goiatuba EC 1–1
W União Rondonópolis 2–3
L Capital Brasilia 2–1
L CEOV Operário 0–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 30%
Luverdense Luverdense
W Inhumas 4–0
D Brasiliense 1–1
W Aparecidense 1–0
L Primavera MG 1–0
L Gama 1–2
Away clean sheet (120 days) 24%

Playing profile

Ceilândia Ceilândia
Attack
29
Defence
71
Form
51
Luverdense Luverdense
Attack
30
Defence
73
Form
52
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Group 4

# Team G Pts
1 Capital Brasilia Capital Brasilia 10 23
2 Goiatuba EC Goiatuba EC 10 19
3 Ceilândia Ceilândia 10 12
4 Mixto Mixto 10 12
5 União Rondonópolis União Rondonópolis 10 9
6 CEOV Operário CEOV Operário 10 5

What's at stake · Group 4

Top 2 advance to the next round

Ceilândia Luverdense
Current #3 #1
→ Ceilândia #3 #1
→ Draw #3 #1
→ Luverdense #4 #1

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Ceilândia vs Luverdense?
The model gives Ceilândia a 43% win probability, 25% for a draw, and 30% for an Luverdense win.
How many goals are expected in Ceilândia vs Luverdense?
Expected goals: Ceilândia 1.8, Luverdense 1.3 (total 3.1). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 69%.
What is the most likely score in Ceilândia vs Luverdense?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 10.7%.