The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Celta Vigo a 54% win probability (draw 25%, Alaves 20%). The final result was Celta Vigo 3–4 Alaves. In 2 previous meetings, Celta Vigo have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Alaves.
Match statistics
5
Shots on target
6
1.82
Actual xG
1.73
56%
Possession
44%
4
Corners
1
Pre-match prediction
54.92%
Celta
25.06%
X
20.03%
Alaves ←
we assigned to the actual result (Alaves)
20.03%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.62
1.82
+0.2
0.83
1.73
+0.9
xG dominance was balanced (1.82 – 1.73).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
The final score was Celta Vigo 3–4 Alaves.
What did the model predict before Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
The model assigned 54% probability to a Celta Vigo win, 25% to a draw, and 20% to an Alaves win.