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Central Norte - San Miguel

Primera Nacional July 05, 2026 21:30
Central Norte
#15 · 18 pts
vs
San Miguel
#10 · 24 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
44.6%
Win
Central Norte
28.17%
Draw
27.23%
Win
San Miguel
1.21
Expected xG
0.89
Most likely result 1–0 (14.9%)
2+ goals
58%
3+ goals
35%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Central Norte a 44% win probability, against 28% for a draw and 27% for San Miguel. Expected goals are 1.2 for Central Norte and 0.9 for San Miguel (total 2.1), with a 58% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 14.9% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Central Norte have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for San Miguel.

Season Stats

Central Norte
4W 5D 6L
San Miguel
3W 8D 4L
Averages per game
0.7
Goals
0.8
0.9
Conceded
1.2
Percentages
40%
O 1.5
73%
20%
O 2.5
33%
40%
BTTS
47%
33%
Clean Sht
33%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in Primera Nacional. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
58%
O 1.5
23%
O 2.5
18%
O 3.5
41%
BTTS
Central Norte
2W 4D 2L · at home
San Miguel
1W 6D 2L · away
0.8
gls/g
0.8
0.8
Conceded
1.3
25%
Win %
11%
75%
Win or Draw
78%
38%
O 1.5
78%
13%
O 2.5
33%
13%
O 3.5
22%
38%
BTTS
44%
50%
Clean Sht
33%
38%
Failed to Score
44%
last 9
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Central Norte San Miguel →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 12.3% 10.9% 4.8% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1%
1 14.9% 13.2% 5.8% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
2 9.0% 8.0% 3.5% 1.0% 0.2% —
3 3.6% 3.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% —
4 1.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% — —
5 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% — — —

Recent form

Central Norte Central Norte
W Godoy Cruz 1–0
D San Telmo 0–0
L Acassuso 2–1
D Chaco For Ever 1–1
L Ferro Carril Oeste 1–0
Home clean sheet (120 days) 36%
San Miguel San Miguel
W Acassuso 0–2
D Deportivo Madryn 2–2
D Defensores De Belgrano 0–0
D Ciudad de Bolívar 1–1
W Almirante Brown 1–0
Away clean sheet (120 days) 33%

Playing profile

Central Norte Central Norte
Attack
24
Defence
73
Form
46
San Miguel San Miguel
Attack
26
Defence
73
Form
49
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

0
Central Norte
0
Draw
1
San Miguel
13 Feb 2026 Primera Nacional 0–1

Group 1

# Team G Pts
1 Deportivo Moron Deportivo Moron 18 34
2 Ferro Carril Oeste Ferro Carril Oeste 18 34
3 Los Andes Los Andes 18 29
4 Colon Santa Fe Colon Santa Fe 18 29
5 Deportivo Madryn Deportivo Madryn 18 28
6 Ciudad de Bolívar Ciudad de Bolívar 18 27
7 Almirante Brown Almirante Brown 18 26
8 CA Estudiantes CA Estudiantes 18 26
9 Godoy Cruz Godoy Cruz 18 25
10 San Miguel San Miguel 18 24
11 San Telmo San Telmo 18 20
12 Defensores De Belgrano Defensores De Belgrano 18 20
13 Racing Cordoba Racing Cordoba 18 20
14 All Boys All Boys 18 19
15 Central Norte Central Norte 18 18
16 Acassuso Acassuso 18 18
17 Atletico Mitre Atletico Mitre 18 17
18 Chaco For Ever Chaco For Ever 18 12

What's at stake · Group 1

Top 2 advance to the next round

Central Norte San Miguel
Current #15 #10
→ Central Norte #11 #10
→ Draw #14 #10
→ San Miguel #15 #7

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Central Norte vs San Miguel?
The model gives Central Norte a 44% win probability, 28% for a draw, and 27% for an San Miguel win.
How many goals are expected in Central Norte vs San Miguel?
Expected goals: Central Norte 1.2, San Miguel 0.9 (total 2.1). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 58%.
What is the most likely score in Central Norte vs San Miguel?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 14.9%.