Cerezo Osaka 2–4 Kawasaki Frontale — pre-match prediction — J1 League — October 17, 2026

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J1 League · Regular Season - 10 October 17, 2026 08:00 Yanmar Hanasaka Stadium, Osaka

Cerezo Osaka

#12 · 14 pts

2 – 4

Final score

Kawasaki Frontale

#6 · 22 pts

Lucas Fernandes 43' (pen.)

Yota Komi (ast. Shunta Tanaka) 48'

10' (ast. Sota Miura) Pedro Romano

45'+3 (ast. Reon Yamahara) Kento Tachibanada

74' (ast. Marcio Augusto da Silva Barbosa) Yasuto Wakizaka

89' (ast. So Kawahara) Yuto Ozeki

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Kawasaki Frontale a 39% win probability (draw 32%, Cerezo Osaka 28%). The final result was Cerezo Osaka 2–4 Kawasaki Frontale.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

2.10

Actual xG

1.48

Saves

41%

Possession

59%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

🟥 Red cards

Match Events

10'

ast. Sota Miura · Pedro Romano⚽

Ayumu Ohata

19'

31'

Reon Yamahara / Asahi Sasaki ↕

36'

Pedro Romano

41'

Reon Yamahara

⚽Lucas Fernandes (pen.)

43'

45'+3

ast. Reon Yamahara · Kento Tachibanada⚽

45'

Yuichi Maruyama / Pedro Romano ↕

⚽Yota Komi · ast. Shunta Tanaka

48'

Jackson Irvine

53'

Pablo Sabbag

65'

↕ Pablo Sabbag / Solomon Sakuragawa

66'

74'

ast. Marcio Augusto da Silva Barbosa · Yasuto Wakizaka⚽

75'

Yuto Ozeki / Marcio Augusto da Silva Barbosa ↕

↕ Lucas Fernandes / Shinji Kagawa

76'

↕ Yota Komi / Yumeki Yokoyama

76'

↕ Jackson Irvine / Kosei Okazawa

85'

86'

Yu Kobayashi / Derik Lacerda ↕

87'

So Kawahara / Kento Tachibanada ↕

89'

ast. So Kawahara · Yuto Ozeki⚽

Pre-match prediction

28.28%

Cerezo

32.39%

39.33%

Kawasaki ←

we assigned to the actual result (Kawasaki Frontale) 39.33% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Cerezo

0.60

2.10

+1.51

Kawasaki

1.02

1.48

+0.46

Cerezo Osaka dominated by xG (2.10 vs 1.48). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Machida Zelvia	12	27
2	FC Tokyo	12	27
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	12	26
4	Kashiwa Reysol	12	25
5	Vissel Kobe	12	23
6	Kawasaki Frontale	12	22
7	Urawa	12	21
8	Kashima	12	20
9	Yokohama F. Marinos	12	18
10	Fagiano Okayama	12	16
11	Nagoya Grampus	12	14
12	Cerezo Osaka	12	14
13	Shimizu S-pulse	12	14
14	V-varen Nagasaki	12	12
15	Gamba Osaka	12	11
16	Kyoto Sanga	12	10
17	Mito Hollyhock	12	9
18	Tokyo Verdy	12	8
19	Avispa Fukuoka	12	7
20	JEF United Chiba	12	7

Lineups

Cerezo Osaka 3-4-2-1

Kosuke Nakamura G 5.54

R. Inoue D 6.44

T. Takahashi D 6.24

Dion-Johan Cools D 5.74

A. Ohata 19' M 4.96

J. Irvine 85' M 5.54

S. Tanaka 1 👟 M 7.38

H. Okuda M 6.27

Y. Komi 1 ⚽ 76' M 6.95

Lucas Fernandes 1 ⚽ 76' M 6.05

P. Sabbag 66' F 5.63

Bench

Javi Hernández D 0.00

K. Abe G 0.00

K. Okazawa 5' M 5.81

R. Sakata M 0.00

S. Kagawa 14' M 5.75

S. Sakuragawa 24' F 6.14

S. Uejo M 0.00

T. Nakamura D 0.00

Y. Yokoyama 14' M 5.92

Kawasaki Frontale 4-2-3-1

S. Brodersen G 6.05

S. Miura 1 👟 D 7.35

F. Uremović D 6.68

Pedro Romano 1 ⚽ 45' D 6.91

A. Sasaki 31' D 5.95

Y. Yamamoto M 7.20

K. Tachibanada 1 ⚽ 87' M 8.20

Marcinho 1 👟 75' M 6.46

Y. Wakizaka 1 ⚽ M 7.78

T. Ito M 6.27

Derik Lacerda 86' F 6.21

Bench

K. Mochiyama F 0.00

L. Yamaguchi G 0.00

R. Yamahara 1 👟 59' D 6.08

Ryuki Osa M 0.00

Shuto Yamaichi M 0.00

S. Kawahara 1 👟 3' M 6.09

Y. Kobayashi 4' F 6.49

Y. Maruyama 45' D 6.36

Y. Ozeki 1 ⚽ 15' M 6.88

Best on the pitch

K. Tachibanada

M · Kawasaki

8.20

1 ⚽

1 shots · 62 pass

Y. Wakizaka

M · Kawasaki

7.78

1 ⚽

3 shots · 49 pass

S. Tanaka

M · Cerezo

7.38

1 👟

1 shots · 50 pass

S. Miura

D · Kawasaki

7.35

1 👟

· 63 pass

Y. Yamamoto

M · Kawasaki

7.20

· 87 pass

Y. Komi

M · Cerezo

6.95

1 ⚽

3 shots · 17 pass

Cerezo Osaka — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Kosuke Nakamura	G	90	5.54	—	—	0	18	10%	0	—	—
R. Inoue	D	90	6.44	—	—	1	53	47%	2	—	—
T. Takahashi	D	90	6.24	—	—	1	52	48%	0	—	—
Dion-Johan Cools	D	90	5.74	—	—	0	44	35%	1	—	—
A. Ohata	M	19	4.96	—	—	0	7	3%	1	—	1
J. Irvine	M	85	5.54	—	—	0	39	31%	1	1	—
S. Tanaka	M	90	7.38	—	1	1	50	42%	3	—	—
H. Okuda	M	90	6.27	—	—	1	59	53%	2	—	—
Y. Komi	M	76	6.95	1	—	3	17	12%	0	—	—
Lucas Fernandes	M	76	6.05	1	—	2	26	17%	2	—	—
P. Sabbag	F	66	5.63	—	—	2	15	11%	0	1	—
K. Okazawa	M	5	5.81	—	—	0	5	4%	0	—	—
S. Kagawa	M	14	5.75	—	—	0	18	12%	0	—	—
S. Sakuragawa	F	24	6.14	—	—	0	6	2%	0	—	—
Y. Yokoyama	M	14	5.92	—	—	1	3	2%	0	—	—

Kawasaki Frontale — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
S. Brodersen	G	90	6.05	—	—	0	16	11%	0	—	—
S. Miura	D	90	7.35	—	1	0	63	59%	1	—	—
F. Uremović	D	90	6.68	—	—	0	71	65%	2	—	—
Pedro Romano	D	45	6.91	1	—	1	33	28%	1	1	—
A. Sasaki	D	31	5.95	—	—	0	16	12%	0	—	—
Y. Yamamoto	M	90	7.20	—	—	0	87	83%	4	—	—
K. Tachibanada	M	87	8.20	1	—	1	62	57%	2	—	—
Marcinho	M	75	6.46	—	1	2	29	23%	0	—	—
Y. Wakizaka	M	90	7.78	1	—	3	49	43%	1	—	—
T. Ito	M	90	6.27	—	—	1	45	38%	1	—	—
Derik Lacerda	F	86	6.21	—	—	0	12	12%	0	—	—
R. Yamahara	D	59	6.08	—	1	0	37	32%	0	1	—
S. Kawahara	M	3	6.09	—	1	0	11	10%	0	—	—
Y. Kobayashi	F	4	6.49	—	—	0	4	3%	0	—	—
Y. Maruyama	D	45	6.36	—	—	0	37	35%	1	—	—
Y. Ozeki	M	15	6.88	1	—	1	19	17%	0	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Cerezo Osaka vs Kawasaki Frontale?

The final score was Cerezo Osaka 2–4 Kawasaki Frontale.

What did the model predict before Cerezo Osaka vs Kawasaki Frontale?

The model assigned 28% probability to a Cerezo Osaka win, 32% to a draw, and 39% to an Kawasaki Frontale win.