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Cerro Largo - Central Espanol

Primera División September 13, 2026 01:00
Cerro Largo
#2 · 11 pts
vs
Central Espanol
#5 · 24 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
49.62%
Win
Cerro Largo
34.95%
Draw
15.43%
Win
Central Espanol
0.99
Expected xG
0.35

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–0 (26.35%)
1X2 Result ✓ 64.7% hit rate (17 picks)
1 50%
X 35%
2 15%
Double Chance
1X 85%
X2 50%
12 65%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 60%
Over 2.5 33%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Cerro Largo a 49% win probability, against 34% for a draw and 15% for Central Espanol. Expected goals are 1.0 for Cerro Largo and 0.4 for Central Espanol (total 1.3), with a 60% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 26.35% probability. In 2 previous meetings, Cerro Largo have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Central Espanol.

Season Stats

Cerro Largo
4W 6D 5L
Central Espanol
5W 4D 6L
Averages per game
1.0
Goals
0.9
1.0
Conceded
0.9
Percentages
67%
O 1.5
53%
27%
O 2.5
33%
47%
BTTS
40%
33%
Clean Sht
33%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in Primera División. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
15%
O 3.5
55%
BTTS
Cerro Largo
3W 5D 2L · at home
Central Espanol
2W 2D 6L · away
1.4
gls/g
0.9
0.9
Conceded
1.9
30%
Win %
20%
80%
Win or Draw
40%
90%
O 1.5
60%
20%
O 2.5
60%
10%
O 3.5
20%
60%
BTTS
50%
30%
Clean Sht
30%
10%
Failed to Score
30%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Cerro Largo Central Espanol →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 26.3% 9.2% 1.6% 0.2% — —
1 25.9% 9.1% 1.6% 0.2% — —
2 12.8% 4.5% 0.8% 0.1% — —
3 4.2% 1.5% 0.3% — — —
4 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% — — —
5 0.2% 0.1% — — — —

Recent form

Cerro Largo Cerro Largo
L Atletico Torque 2–1
D Liverpool Montevideo 1–1
D Defensor Sporting 1–1
D Wanderers 1–1
D Juventud 1–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 30%
Central Espanol Central Espanol
D Defensor Sporting 1–1
L Wanderers 3–0
L Juventud 0–1
L Penarol 2–1
W Progreso 1–0
Away clean sheet (120 days) 33%

Playing profile

Cerro Largo Cerro Largo
Attack
22
Defence
68
Form
44
Central Espanol Central Espanol
Attack
10
Defence
73
Form
39
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

2
Cerro Largo
0
Draw
0
Central Espanol
25 Jul 2026 Primera División 1–0
15 Mar 2026 Primera División 3–1

Primera: Torneo Intermedio - A

# Team G Pts
1 Penarol Penarol 7 16
2 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 7 11
3 Racing Montevideo Racing Montevideo 7 10
4 Liverpool Montevideo Liverpool Montevideo 7 9
5 Central Espanol Central Espanol 7 9
6 Cerro Cerro 7 9
7 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 7 6
8 Boston River Boston River 7 5

What's at stake · Primera: Torneo Intermedio - A

Top 2 advance to the next round

Cerro Largo Central Espanol
Current #2 #1
→ Cerro Largo #2 #5
→ Draw #2 #4
→ Central Espanol #3 #2

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Cerro Largo vs Central Espanol?
The model gives Cerro Largo a 49% win probability, 34% for a draw, and 15% for an Central Espanol win.
How many goals are expected in Cerro Largo vs Central Espanol?
Expected goals: Cerro Largo 1.0, Central Espanol 0.4 (total 1.3). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 60%.
What is the most likely score in Cerro Largo vs Central Espanol?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 26.35%.